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June 19, 2019, 11:00:05 pm
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  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1Petro Poroshenko (BPP)  
#2Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)  
#3Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)  
#4Yuri Boyko (OB)  
#5Vladimir Zelenski (SN)  
#6Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)  
#7Oleg Lyashko (RP)  
#8Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)  
#9Andrii Sadovyi (SP)  
#10Evgeny Murayev (IND)  
#11Other (please specify)  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 9797 times)
smoltchanov
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« on: March 19, 2019, 04:22:16 am »

Looking at polls i see - it's sure run-off with Zelenski as one of participants. The question is - who will be the second?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2019, 03:42:30 am »

How much trouble is Poroshenko in ? I know Putin & Co., HATE this man & would rather want a Putin ally inside Mariyinksy Palace.

There are no Putin's allies among leading candidates...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2019, 12:53:20 am »

I am for Boyko but I would be fine if Poroshenko wins re-election

Interesting choices, given that Boyko is one of the most pro-Russia candidates, and Poroshenlo - one of the most anti-Russia...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2019, 11:40:35 pm »

Close to 45% of votes counted - not much change. So, it's, most likely, Zelensky vs Poroshenko in run-off, with advantage (despite Poroshenko's incumbency and control of most of mass media) going to Zelensky
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2019, 08:09:12 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2019, 08:35:18 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....

Of course.  I think the best way is some sort of standoff in  Donbass like troops from both sides face to face with some shooting here or there for some strategic spot.  Ideally for  Petroshenko  the standoff lasts for 2 weeks or so before the runoff.  Then Petroshenko  can have all sorts of threatening speeches and military parades and drown out any news of Zelensky in the media.  The election then becomes a Petroshenko vs Putin race.

Agree. This is, essentially, the only path to winning for Poroshenko...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2019, 10:50:17 am »
« Edited: April 01, 2019, 10:55:18 am by smoltchanov »

there's no way poroshenko can win in second round. ukrainian people aren't complete idiots, he won plurality only in pro nazi regions of lviv and ternopil. i think zelenski will win in second round with 2/3 majority at least.

here's map by region https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440

No. My present forecast is about 58% Zelensky. But it's 3 weeks until 21st....

P.S. (concerning "complete idiots"): Before November 2016 i frequently heard phrases like "Americans are not complete idiots, they will not elect Trump...")))))
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2019, 03:33:08 pm »

Rule 1 of elections: A voter is smart and rational, voters en masse are stupid.

Excellent rule!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2019, 01:37:43 am »

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.
Because those places are pro-russian...

It seems - some people simpy can't understand, how one can be pro-Russia at all. Simply. No one will call me Putin's fan, but there is more stability in Russia now, then in the Ukraine. And many people want stability most of all. It's another question of what Russia will be after Putin, and what happens there, but - these are not a present day issues (yet). In Ukraine similar questins are very much present. In addition - no country can ignore "big neighbour": Canada and Mexico - US, Vietnam - China, and so on. For Ukraine the "big neighbour" is Russia. Nearby geographically, a lot of economic connections from the past (i have a friend in Kharkov, who still remembers fondly time, when Kharkov was a scientific and industrial center of the whole region, which included some areas of North-East Ukraine and some - of Russia (Belgorod, which is nearby in Russia, served as agricultural center of this area, BTW). And now it's even difficult to travel from Kharkov to Belgorod)), family connections, close languages (though i almost never heard Ukranian spoken in Kharkov), and many other reasons....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2019, 12:54:38 am »

Big question is whether the next Ukrainian President will be Pro-US ?

I doubt the Po-isto will get reelected at this point. What did he do to piss people off ?

Zelensky is not pro-US/EU. But at the same time, he doesn't pro-Russia, at least to the extent Yanukovych was and Boyko could have been.

Actually, he is pro-EU and pro-US. Differences between him and all others pro-EU pro-NATO candidates: he wants referendum about should Ukraine go into NATO (Zelenskiy himself supports NATO)? And he wants peace talks with Russia (as compromises, Ze team spoke about real autonomy for Donbass).

Both are reasonable positions, IMHO, as Russia will not go anywhere, and will remain closest and most important (historically, economically, and so on) neighbour of Ukraine. You are not obliged to love your neighbour, but stable and minimally nornal relations with him are always preferrable to open hostility...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2019, 10:06:58 am »
« Edited: April 13, 2019, 11:46:05 am by smoltchanov »

What did Poroshenko do to piss people off ?


The economy wasn't good although thats the fault of Russia and the separtists, however on corruption he was lackluster and corruption was one of the things he could have done something on if he wanted.

It's (the state of Ukranian economy) NOT the fault of Russia generally (which wasn't obliged to support Poroshenko's regime, with it's many anti-Russia overtones, first of all). According to such logic one could say, that bad state of Venezuelan economy is a US fault..... IF a state of your economy is heavily dependent on good relations with some other country - it's rather natural at least to try to normalize these relations (as old Russian saying goes: "Don't spit in the well you are drinking from"). May be cynical, but - true. Corruption is another matter...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2019, 03:27:43 am »

Another interesting fact: debates could be bad for Zelenskiy because... his Ukrainian language is bad! Usually he speaks Russian, only in some pre-scripted videos he spoke in Ukrainian. He said he has started Ukrainian about 2-3 years ago.
He will speak Russian, won't he? I don't know if it is the bad thing for him. He already lost the die-hard anti-Russians...

Vast majority of die-hard anti-Russians in Ukraine speak Russian fluently. And i almost never heard Ukranian spoken in the eastern part of Ukraine - only on official ceremonies...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2019, 08:20:50 am »

New poll shows:
Zelensky 54%
Poroshenko 44%

Much closer, then previous. Why such change?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2019, 12:14:24 pm »

Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.

I'm not a linguist, but for those who know both languages:

Is Ukrainian quite different to Russian or just some estranged dialect of Russian, similar to Dutch relative to Standard/High-German or Austrian-German relative to Standard/High-German ?

Not a linguist too, but i would answer "different, but not SO different"... I never studied Ukranian, but understand 80-90% of spoken words nevertheless....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2019, 11:48:11 am »

What is most interesting is the ethnic dynamics at play here. Zelensky (who is Jewish) is a creature of Igor Kolomoyskyi (a very powerful, super-rich oligarch, who also happens to be Jewish). Meanwhile, all the Bandera* loving Neo-Nazi groups are supporting Poroshenko. It will be very interesting to see how they respond to having an openly Jewish leader. Its easy to imagine there being another "Maidan"...

* Note for Westerners, Stepan Bandera was a brutal Ukrainian nationalist who collaborated with the Nazi occupation during WW2. He and his followers killed up to one million people, including tens of thousands of Jews. Bandera is beloved by all the extreme Ukrainian nationalist groups (Pravy Sektor, Svoboda, C14 etc) and Poroshenko (as well as Yushchenko back in the 2000s) pander to Bandera's fanatical followers. Even Zelensky will probably try pandering to them, if he is allowed to win (especially considering that Kolomoyskyi himself has funded Bandera-loving groups in the past).

For the reference of those of us living outside of an RT media bubble, the chance of the loud but miniscule amount of actual Ukrainian Neo-Nazis causing a 'third Maidan' is roughly comparable to the chance of the American Antifa taking the White House by storm.

Well, even most Russians (like me) live "outside of an RT media bubble,"....)))
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2019, 01:44:13 pm »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

Yeah, present day America reminds me Russia in 1918-1920. Extremist "reds" and equally extreme "whites". Ready to kill each other in direct sense of these words. And almost no one else. Right now US is very close to that... Ukraine is different..
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2019, 01:45:30 pm »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

Wait until the Jewish comedian turns out to be a Putin plant, though.

You are dumb, sir. That happens, but - incurable...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2019, 03:21:28 am »

91% of the votes counted:

74.9% Zelensky
25.1% Poroshenko

Zelensky is ahead in every region except Lviv, where Poroshenko has 63%.

Ternopil is also close, but even there Zelensky is ahead by a few points.

Zelensky's best region is Luhansk with 89% support.

Everything is logical. Lviv (Lvov in Russian) was always Poland-leaning and rather strongly anti-Russia. Ternopil (and Ivano-Frankovsk) - part of Galicia with Lviv. Luhansk  (Lugansk in Russian)- barely different from, say, Rostovskaya "oblast" of Russia... Donetsk, Odessa, Kharkov are also "Russia-leaning" (Kharkov had closest connections with Russian Belgorod until last years) and i am sure Poroshenko got very little there...
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2019, 12:42:13 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 05:09:15 am by smoltchanov »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

Yeah, present day America reminds me Russia in 1918-1920. Extremist "reds" and equally extreme "whites". Ready to kill each other in direct sense of these words. And almost no one else. Right now US is very close to that... Ukraine is different..

You really think the U.S. is on the cusp of a February (or Bolshevik) Revolution?

Not so quick, but in perspective - yes. As i already said - half of America is ready to shoot another half on place in very literal sense of these words... I will not be surprised if it happens in next 20 years. A Civil War II....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2019, 12:19:38 pm »

Sounds like the newly elected Ukranian President will NOT be an ally of the United States & NATO countries.


Why MUST he? There are lots of connections between Ukraine and Russia despite all that happened in the last years, and geography is important factor too. Of course - he will NOT be Putin's ally, but, probably, will balance more, then Poroshenko did...
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