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| | | | |-+  KS-GOV: Kelly (D) 41% Kobach (R) 39% Orman (I) 9%
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Author Topic: KS-GOV: Kelly (D) 41% Kobach (R) 39% Orman (I) 9%  (Read 1431 times)
Mondale
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« on: September 25, 2018, 02:56:38 pm »

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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 02:57:46 pm »

If Davids and Davis manage to pick up their respective congressional districts, that should be enough to help Kelly squeak by.
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 03:05:56 pm »

Yeah! Tossup.
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 03:06:43 pm »

Im a Kelly guy through and through, and yes, I think shell win by 2-4.
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 03:07:53 pm »

Im a Kelly guy through and through, and yes, I think shell win by 2-4.

But enough about NH-GOV, what are your thoughts on this race?
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 07:26:13 pm »

Im a Kelly guy through and through, and yes, I think shell win by 2-4.

But enough about NH-GOV, what are your thoughts on this race?

Zing!

In all seriousness though, it's good to see Kelly ahead in a poll. Maybe this is indeed a tossup after all. It's still not good enough though. Kobach needs to lose!
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 08:57:25 pm »

This looks winnable, but I'll believe it when I see it.
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 09:15:11 pm »

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180925/online-poll-of-kansas-governors-race-puts-laura-kelly-slightly-ahead-of-kris-kobach

This was an online poll, FWIW. Still looks pretty accurate.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 09:29:38 pm »

Im a Kelly guy through and through, and yes, I think shell win by 2-4.

As I said in the NYT thread, if Davids and Davis are both winning, then Kelly is in no worse shape than a Tossup
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2018, 01:26:08 am »

Wow, Kobach's favorability numbers are brutal. 37-56. Considering he's getting almost the exact percentage of people who view him favorably, I can only imagine which candidate Goofy Greg is hurting more. Roll Eyes

Quote
Well qualitatively he should be a bigger draw from Kelly. Data are scarce though. In the last poll there was a question asking respondents to pick only from between Kelly and Kobach, and Orman voters preferred Kelly by 20ish points

B-b-b-b-but I thought Kobach and Orman would split the alt right Nazi vote!!!!11!! Muh third parties always help Democrats!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2018, 01:29:37 am »

Mr. Orman, please drop out. You have no chance of winning yourself and may deliver Kobach the governorship.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2018, 01:52:26 am »

Wow, Kobach's favorability numbers are brutal. 37-56. Considering he's getting almost the exact percentage of people who view him favorably, I can only imagine which candidate Goofy Greg is hurting more. Roll Eyes

Quote
Well qualitatively he should be a bigger draw from Kelly. Data are scarce though. In the last poll there was a question asking respondents to pick only from between Kelly and Kobach, and Orman voters preferred Kelly by 20ish points

B-b-b-b-but I thought Kobach and Orman would split the alt right Nazi vote!!!!11!! Muh third parties always help Democrats!

Were people actually arguing that Orman would draw evenly from both? LOL. Though I was one of the people who posited that Orman would hurt Kelly more, albeit not by 90 Kelly-10 Kobach or 80-20 though.
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2018, 02:11:23 am »

Did anyone besides some random troll (if even that) argue that Orman would pull from Kobach more? Or is this another example of mocking people that don't exist?
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2018, 02:19:58 am »

This looks winnable, but I'll believe it only when I see it.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2018, 03:00:30 am »

Did anyone besides some random troll (if even that) argue that Orman would pull from Kobach more? Or is this another example of mocking people that don't exist?

Found within 5 seconds of Googling. You realize you can do this too, right? It's not a mystical art.

I could see Orman actually pull more from Kobach than Kelly due to moderate Republicans that don't like Kobach.

Well Begich held office, Orman is just some stupid chad, and I think he hurts Kobach more than anybody else.

Virtually none, except helping the Dems win (he will take more from moderate Republicans who oppose Brownback/Kobach than moderate Democrats).

And people argued the same for Alaska too. Because a split between a real Democrat v. a de facto Democrat v. a Republican in a deep red state clearly benefits the Democrats! Roll Eyes
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2018, 03:04:42 am »

Wow, Kobach's favorability numbers are brutal. 37-56. Considering he's getting almost the exact percentage of people who view him favorably, I can only imagine which candidate Goofy Greg is hurting more. Roll Eyes

Quote
Well qualitatively he should be a bigger draw from Kelly. Data are scarce though. In the last poll there was a question asking respondents to pick only from between Kelly and Kobach, and Orman voters preferred Kelly by 20ish points

B-b-b-b-but I thought Kobach and Orman would split the alt right Nazi vote!!!!11!! Muh third parties always help Democrats!

Were people actually arguing that Orman would draw evenly from both? LOL. Though I was one of the people who posited that Orman would hurt Kelly more, albeit not by 90 Kelly-10 Kobach or 80-20 though.

No, worse. People were arguing he'd hurt Kobach more, LOL.
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2018, 06:06:07 am »

Wow, Kobach's favorability numbers are brutal. 37-56. Considering he's getting almost the exact percentage of people who view him favorably, I can only imagine which candidate Goofy Greg is hurting more. Roll Eyes

Quote
Well qualitatively he should be a bigger draw from Kelly. Data are scarce though. In the last poll there was a question asking respondents to pick only from between Kelly and Kobach, and Orman voters preferred Kelly by 20ish points

B-b-b-b-but I thought Kobach and Orman would split the alt right Nazi vote!!!!11!! Muh third parties always help Democrats!

That sounds good to me, considering Orman will not even be at 5% by Election Day so his inevitable bleeding will pad Kellys margin.
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2018, 12:06:32 pm »

I mean, if this is for a county Democratic party, then Kelly+2 is actually pretty pathetic. Makes you suspect the reality is Kobach up single-digits, though Kelly is probably winning both of the competitive CDs very comfortably, so Davi(d)s should feel good about their odds.
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OneJ
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2018, 01:04:46 pm »

I mean, if this is for a county Democratic party, then Kelly+2 is actually pretty pathetic. Makes you suspect the reality is Kobach up single-digits, though Kelly is probably winning both of the competitive CDs very comfortably, so Davi(d)s should feel good about their odds.

This race, even with a third party, should not even be competitive in the first place. In a state as red (non-Atlas) as Kansas is, youd think Kobach would be leading by at least double digits. But of course you see this in another way.
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« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2018, 01:09:17 pm »

I mean, if this is for a county Democratic party, then Kelly+2 is actually pretty pathetic. Makes you suspect the reality is Kobach up single-digits, though Kelly is probably winning both of the competitive CDs very comfortably, so Davi(d)s should feel good about their odds.

This race, even with a third party, should not even be competitive in the first place. In a state as red (non-Atlas) as Kansas is, youd think Kobach would be leading by at least double digits. But of course you see this in another way.

Disagree; Kansas has recently had popular Democratic Governors in Kathleen Sebelius and Mark Parkinson, and Kelly has received significantly more prominent support from moderate Republicans (outright endorsements from former Governors and Senators) than Sebelius or Parkinson did. Kobach is an unusually unpopular statewide official in a state where the overall administration is viewed as tremendously unpopular, and really should be losing.

If he is winning, it's only because he's being bailed out by the third-partiers. But still.
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« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2018, 03:44:01 pm »

Yeah, Kelly could easily be up 5 or so without Orman.
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« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2018, 06:45:48 pm »

Kelly will win anyway. No one with that low of a favorability rating is winning with an unpopular R president, and the state having no money to spend on education and has been ravished by brownbackinomics in a democratic wave year.
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« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2018, 07:17:30 pm »

Mr. Orman, please drop out. You have no chance of winning yourself and may deliver Kobach the governorship.

Funny how things have turned around compared with 2014. Tongue
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2018, 09:10:22 pm »

Kelly can win with Orman on the ballot
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« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2018, 09:12:04 pm »

Kelly's probably going to win, and Orman will probably get no more than 6% of the vote.
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