AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +8

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-poll-it-s-neck-neck-arizona-senate-race-n912696

Ducey 51

Garcia 43

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey is the favorite

[ON Progressive]

Ducey seems to have gotten a big bump from appointing McCain’s replacement. It’s extremely annoying given that all he did was appoint a partisan hack but voters aren’t exactly famous for their intellect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is more Democratic leaning than Ohio and AZ and NV Gov. Remember Trump won Latino FL due to Rubio coattails.

[Atlas Force]

I’m starting to wonder what a Garcia/McSally voter looks like.

[Devout Centrist]

Give it time, folks, it’s still September

[Xing]

Weird to see such a difference between the gubernatorial race and the senate race, but this is definitely looking like a longshot for Democrats, at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ doesn't elect Dem governors, but Congresswoman they do

[libertpaulian]

If Garcia doesn't get within at least striking distance by mid-October, Dems need to triage this race and focus on Abrams, Cordray, Edmondson, Evers, Gillum, Kelly, and Hubbell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are gonna hammar down on WI and IA

[MT Treasurer]

Ducey seems to have gotten a big bump from appointing McCain’s replacement. It’s extremely annoying given that all he did was appoint a partisan hack but voters aren’t exactly famous for their intellect.

"Swing voters" generally don’t base their vote on issues, or anything of actual substance, for that matter.

[ON Progressive]

Ducey seems to have gotten a big bump from appointing McCain’s replacement. It’s extremely annoying given that all he did was appoint a partisan hack but voters aren’t exactly famous for their intellect.

"Swing voters" generally don’t base their vote on issues, or anything of actual substance, for that matter.

I'd certainly agree with that. In fact, I'd argue that's true of the majority of partisan voters too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Solid said OH, MD and AZ were leading Dem.?!

[MAINEiac4434]

If Garcia doesn't get within at least striking distance by mid-October, Dems need to triage this race and focus on Abrams, Cordray, Edmondson, Evers, Gillum, Kelly, and Hubbell and Mills.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CORDRAY is down by 5 points, DeWine is favored

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ducey seems to have gotten a big bump from appointing McCain’s replacement. It’s extremely annoying given that all he did was appoint a partisan hack but voters aren’t exactly famous for their intellect.

[NOVA Green]

Garcia appears to have a bit of a name recognition problem here (22% Unknown/Unsure) vs 11% for Ducey.

Also 50-51% favorable ratings RV/LV is problematic for Garcia, and it appears that Ducey managed to survive the initial backlash against him from the Teacher's Strike.

Still not convinced about the "McCain Bounce" theory--- have we really seen any concrete evidence that this is impacting AZ voter's that much in the 2018 GOV election?

[IceSpear]

I’m starting to wonder what a Garcia/McSally voter looks like.

Sinema isn't even supporting Garcia. That's how godawful she is.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/09/12/kyrsten-sinema-dissing-david-garcia-not-endorsing-him-arizona/1284511002/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m starting to wonder what a Garcia/McSally voter looks like.

Sinema isn't even supporting Garcia. That's how godawful she is.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/09/12/kyrsten-sinema-dissing-david-garcia-not-endorsing-him-arizona/1284511002/

She's not Awful, she's gonna win

[IceSpear]

Ducey seems to have gotten a big bump from appointing McCain’s replacement. It’s extremely annoying given that all he did was appoint a partisan hack but voters aren’t exactly famous for their intellect.

"Swing voters" generally don’t base their vote on issues, or anything of actual substance, for that matter.

+1 for both these posts.

[IceSpear]

Garcia appears to have a bit of a name recognition problem here (22% Unknown/Unsure) vs 11% for Ducey.

Also 50-51% favorable ratings RV/LV is problematic for Garcia, and it appears that Ducey managed to survive the initial backlash against him from the Teacher's Strike.

Still not convinced about the "McCain Bounce" theory--- have we really seen any concrete evidence that this is impacting AZ voter's that much in the 2018 GOV election?

Most polls have shown very high approval ratings for his choice, and it got him a lot of positive publicity in the news, so I'd be shocked if it didn't move the numbers at all. And I'm pretty sure polls showed a much closer race before, though they were sparse.