Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Another day, another poll with an Evers lead:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html

Evers 50
Walker 43

[OneJ]

Another day, another poll with an Evers lead:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ELECTION/010080D20RG/index.html

Evers 50
Walker 43

And at 50 too!

[MasterJedi]

Can anyone believe our Lt Gov? Kleefisch is Wisconsin's Sarah Palin. She literally tried to tell us Walker believes in covering pre-existing conditions even though he's leading Wisconsin in a lawsuit against doing that...

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

[Scottholes 2.0]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

Nope. Stevens Point, La Crosse, Eau Claire, etc.

[Virginiá]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

[Scottholes 2.0]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

Thanks for enlightening Hofoid, Virginia! I don't know why they want Wisconsin to be as red as Mississippi so bad.

[Sestak]

Can anyone believe our Lt Gov? Kleefisch is Wisconsin's Sarah Palin. She literally tried to tell us Walker believes in covering pre-existing conditions even though he's leading Wisconsin in a lawsuit against doing that...

Hawley over in MO did much the same. And as the AG, he's the one who actually sued against protections for pre-existing conditions.

[Gass3268]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

They also have to defend SD-01, which scares me a little bit. I'd put it as a Toss Up. Personally I feel pretty confident about SD-17, so Lean D, Vukmir might have coattails in SD-05 so I'd probably put that at Lean R, SD-19 feels like a toss up. Also depending on how much of a rural/small town resurgence there is, SD-23 could surprise, probably Likely R.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

They also have to defend SD-01, which scares me a little bit. I'd put it as a Toss Up. Personally I feel pretty confident about SD-17, so Lean D, Vukmir might have coattails in SD-05 so I'd probably put that at Lean R, SD-19 feels like a toss up. Also depending on how much of a rural/small town resurgence there is, SD-23 could surprise, probably Likely R.

Hmm, assuming they lose SD-01 and Vukmir's seat, they're gonna need to win everything else to flip the chamber. Bad odds.

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

Thanks for enlightening Hofoid, Virginia! I don't know why they want Wisconsin to be as red as Mississippi so bad.

No, I'm glad Virginia's reminding me about state fundamentals. She's good at district-by-district analysis. I'm still extremely nervous about legislative races considering how much Dems neglected them during 2010 thinking having Obama in office was enough. Furthermore, even if they win back the chamber this year, 2020 is a presidential year and Wisconsin Dems have to fight against the headwinds of DJT being on the top of the ballot.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

Walker is calling for his resignation.

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1044995252040470529

[Scottholes 2.0]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

Walker is calling for his resignation.

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1044995252040470529

Yet Walker has no issue supporting someone like Trump......

[erſatz-york]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

[Virginiá]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Dear lord

I can't sink any further into my seat

[Zaybay]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Thats where this is from! It was so familiar.

[junior chįmp]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

That video was so cheap....you can hear the porno being filmed next door

[Dr. Arch]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Dear lord

I can't sink any further into my seat

OH

No


LOL

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://www.wpr.org/walker-fundraising-outpacing-evers-6-weeks-out-election-day

[ON Progressive]

https://www.wpr.org/walker-fundraising-outpacing-evers-6-weeks-out-election-day

Walker: $2.3 million
Evers: $1.9 million

That's not a big enough gap at all for me to be worried.

[pbrower2a]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

How can someone get so intellectually low?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

[mcmikk]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

Do you keep deleting your previous posts when you put a new one on this thread?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

Do you keep deleting your previous posts when you put a new one on this thread?

Yes. I don't want people to think I'm insane for making duplicate posts, but I suppose I'll just edit my comment next time I share an update about this election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

"Just one more! I can stop whenever I want!"