Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Progressive Pessimist]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

That video was so cheap....you can hear the porno being filmed next door

[Xing]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Good Lord, that might not be the most cringeworthy ad this cycle, but it's gotta be up there.

[junior chįmp]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

Looks like desperado is back in the bargaining stage

[Scottholes 2.0]

Obama is ENDORSING Tony Evers. Woot! Woot!

https://madison365.com/former-president-barack-obama-endorses-tony-evers-and-mandela-barnes/

[Scottholes 2.0]

A new MU law poll will be released this Wednesday at 12:15 p.m. I'm honestly too nervous to make a prediction because the MU law poll really messed up in August. I was a skeptic last time too and ended up with a positive result. What do you guys think? Will Evers or Walker lead or be tied?

[Politician]

Guessing Evers +3. Evers is going to win, even LOLfoid has stopped trolling about this race?

[MT Treasurer]

Also guessing Evers +3

[libertpaulian]

Evers +4.  hofoid will then come in to talk about Evers' monumental decline and collapse, and how Bart O'Kavanaugh's uber-super-duper-mega-gigacoattails will drag all the endangered GOP governor incumbents, especially Walker, over the finish line.  Hell, Kavanaugh may even send a proxy to help out Walker!  There'll also be a likely schpiel about how Menendez and Blackburn are more likely to lose than Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I hope you all are right and Evers is still continuing his streak against Walker. I'm more curious about the current mood of WI voters with regard to Kavanaugh's confirmation because this will be a question asked on this week's MU law poll.

And yeah, Hofoid will say this race is getting closer if Evers is leading by less than 5 points this time.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Going to be Evers by double digits or something like that.

[LimoLiberal]

They're going to have polled right in the middle of the Kavanaugh bump for the GOP. So I'm guessing Walker +2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're going to have polled right in the middle of the Kavanaugh bump for the GOP. So I'm guessing Walker +2.

WHITMER is doing well in MI so I am not so certain about that

[Scottholes 2.0]

They're going to have polled right in the middle of the Kavanaugh bump for the GOP. So I'm guessing Walker +2.

You're kidding, right? As much of a skeptic as I can be when it comes to Walker, even I acknowledge that there's not way the next MU law poll will have him leading by 2 points after Evers was leading by 5 in its last poll.

I'm glad to see you're back!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I believe the poll will tighten or even show Walker with a healthy lead (that's the only logical conclusion after everything since the last MU Law poll, but if not, then I'm happy for Wisconsinites everywhere.

I hope you all are right and Evers is still continuing his streak against Walker. I'm more curious about the current mood of WI voters with regard to Kavanaugh's confirmation because this will be a question asked on this week's MU law poll.

And yeah, Hofoid will say this race is getting closer if Evers is leading by less than 5 points this time.

Um, duh, isn't that the point? The unskewing will be madness if Evers doesn't maintain/widen his margin. "Evers is actually blowing this race wide open because 'muh broken roads', 'muh Dane County',  and 'muh Tammy Baldwin mega-coattails'. You guys just can't see the fundamentals." You guys are predictable.

[Xing]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

[ON Progressive]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

[Xing]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

Yeah, and maybe things will massively tighten again by November, meaning that Walker only loses by 2 and Baldwin only wins by 9. I'm sure Wisconsin Democrats will be devastated by that result.

[Zaybay]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

Oh, If only there was a way to see whether of not this is still true. If only there was a primary, or some judicial election, or even just a poll broken up by region, if only we had that!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

Oh, If only there was a way to see whether of not this is still true. If only there was a primary, or some judicial election, or even just a poll broken up by region, if only we had that!

Yeah, because that is more indicative than, I dunno, a highly divisive presidential election where lines were drawn in the sand. Gee, when was the last time that happened? Can someone Wikipedia what the county map looked like for Wisconsin?

The poll hasn't released yet and you guys are already getting defensive at people posting their analysis that doesn't fit yours.

[Zaybay]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

You must really have a low standard for a massive tightening if a two point shift is massive to you. Also, Obama got BTFO in Waukesha both elections and won them comfortably. Please delete your account, thanks.

You must be forgetting one (not-so) tiny little detail...Dems have collapsed in the Driftless since then.

Oh, If only there was a way to see whether of not this is still true. If only there was a primary, or some judicial election, or even just a poll broken up by region, if only we had that!

Yeah, because that is more indicative than, I dunno, a highly divisive presidential election where lines were drawn in the sand. Gee, when was the last time that happened? Can someone Wikipedia what the county map looked like for Wisconsin?

The poll hasn't released yet and you guys are already getting defensive at people posting their analysis that doesn't fit yours.

Hofoid, you analysis is as good as consulting the oracle and checking the entrails of a sheep. There is no proof that such a drop in the Driftless was sustained, and there is definite proof to show that it has reversed. I get your whole act is Safe R WI, but this is ridiculous. No one has assumed that Evers is getting his lead thanks to WOW.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

Why do you assume the WOW counties will vote for Walker at the same margins they did in the last three elections? He will undoubtedly win them, but seeing that college educated voters are increasingly shifting away from the GOP here in WI (according to the latest MU polls) and nationwide, It would not surprise me if Walker gets less than 65 percent of the vote in WOW this time. I cannot wait until the next MU poll tomorrow. I can't wait to see your reaction if Evers leads by MORE than 5 this time!

[Doimper]

I doubt the "Kavanaugh bump" is going to be a thing in a swing state. Maybe if Wisconsin actually were as red as North Dakota, but since voters nationwide disapprove of Kavanaugh, I imagine the numbers aren't too different in Wisconsin.

I'll also guess Evers +3, as well as Baldwin +10.

Still indicates a massive tightening (WOW voters coming home to their natural place).

Why do you assume the WOW counties will vote for Walker at the same margins they did in the last three elections? He will undoubtedly win them, but seeing that college educated voters are increasingly shifting away from the GOP here in WI (according to the latest MU polls) and nationwide, It would not surprise me if Walker gets less than 65 percent of the vote in WOW this time. I cannot wait until the next MU poll tomorrow. I can't wait to see your reaction if Evers leads by MORE than 5 this time!

Why are you engaging with hemorrhoid as though he's posting in good faith?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake