Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[ON Progressive]

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.

It's one thing if she raised less than the others, but still raised an OK amount. Raising a mere few thousand dollars is absolutely pathetic though. That wouldn't even be good enough for a county commissioner election, nevermind a statewide election!

[Scottholes 2.0]

I guess there really are lots of Walker-Baldwin voters afrer all. This article explains why the governor's race between Walker and Evers is so close compared to the U.S. Senate race between Baldwin and Vukmir: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/with-wisconsin-voters-split-on-governor-tammy-baldwin-enjoys-commanding/article_dbd4b577-1e00-5f47-947f-f7fef3692e17.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Come on, Wisconsin! PLEASE get rid of Walker.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sigh. Just like I've said. I'm still so upset that Vinehout didn't win; We'd be seeing a very different race. But no use crying over spilt milk.

I'm very worried that this extremely polarized state under Walker and Trump might split tickets to relect both Baldwin and Walker. However, I don't think Vinhout would have done any better than Evers. I will say that at least this race is not as close as, say, Ohio or Nevada (538 has us as Lean D, whereas those races are considered tossups). If Evers continues his lead in the polls up until Election Day, I am fairly certain Evers may ride Baldwin's coattails in this extremely polarized state under Walker and Trump. If the next MU poll(10/31) or any other poll show Walker leading (which I won't be surprised if it will), then that's when I'll be even more concerned.

[Koharu]

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.

It's one thing if she raised less than the others, but still raised an OK amount. Raising a mere few thousand dollars is absolutely pathetic though. That wouldn't even be good enough for a county commissioner election, nevermind a statewide election!

Okay, seriously, also not sure where this "few thousand dollars" thing is coming from. As of July 17 this year, she had raised $89k. While not the six figures of some of the other campaigns, it was certainly more than a "few thousand," and she actually managed to take some counties and got better results than those who outspent her. So, yeah, money is important, but again, it's not everything, and I think if Madisonians had been more willing to compromise instead of going for Evers/Roys, she would have been the best candidate. But again, spilt milk at this point. Just had to correct that ridiculous phrase that was being thrown around.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

[CookieDamage]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

[Bidenworth2020]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

you arent a concern troll. any reasonable person should think this is tussup ,with a tilt to evers (IMO)

[IceSpear]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

you arent a concern troll. any reasonable person should think this is tussup ,with a tilt to evers (IMO)

A lot of people here think that if you're a Democrat who thinks a Democrat could lose any remotely competitive race then you're a concern troll.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

you arent a concern troll. any reasonable person should think this is tussup ,with a tilt to evers (IMO)

A lot of people here think that if you're a Democrat who thinks a Democrat could lose any remotely competitive race then you're a concern troll.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

Even if a far-left LGBT woman wins this state twice? Or do you think Vukmir is winning, too?

[Xing]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

That's funny, I don't remember Wisconsin being one of the most socially conservative states in the nation where population growth is primarily in rural areas.

Anyway, being nervous about this race is definitely normal and doesn't make one a concern troll. Saying that Walker will definitely win again because 2016 and something something Titanium R Wisconsin with a permanent R trend, on the other hand...

[Dr. Arch]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

That's funny, I don't remember Wisconsin being one of the most socially conservative states in the nation where population growth is primarily in rural areas.

Anyway, being nervous about this race is definitely normal and doesn't make one a concern troll. Saying that Walker will definitely win again because 2016 and something something Titanium R Wisconsin with a permanent R trend, on the other hand...

[Koharu]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking. I'm more than pleased to see how Baldwin is polling and am glad I was wrong to worry about her back in August.

My comments about rural Wisconsin are more focused on Walker specifically and Evers and how they both affect the various voter blocks. There has been constant "surprise" about Walker's continued victories amongst urban Dems specifically, and that's particularly where I see them being oblivious. Obviously Wisconsin is a very purple state; I just think Evers isn't the best candidate to speak to the whole state and rural votes obviously count, too.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking. I'm more than pleased to see how Baldwin is polling and am glad I was wrong to worry about her back in August.

My comments about rural Wisconsin are more focused on Walker specifically and Evers and how they both affect the various voter blocks. There has been constant "surprise" about Walker's continued victories amongst urban Dems specifically, and that's particularly where I see them being oblivious. Obviously Wisconsin is a very purple state; I just think Evers isn't the best candidate to speak to the whole state and rural votes obviously count, too.

As a resident of rural Wisconsin, I think you are wrong. Evers is a champion for schools, and every rural school district in Wisconsin has felt the pinch in the last few years. Most have been forced to hold referendum just to keep up with maintenance costs. Combine that with a ton of rural angst against Foxconn (outside the SE) and the generally horrible state of rural roads, and I think rural Wisconsin is quite open to Tony Evers.

[Xing]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking.

No, you're fine. I was talking about hofoid, who claimed that Wisconsin is the next Arkansas.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking. I'm more than pleased to see how Baldwin is polling and am glad I was wrong to worry about her back in August.

My comments about rural Wisconsin are more focused on Walker specifically and Evers and how they both affect the various voter blocks. There has been constant "surprise" about Walker's continued victories amongst urban Dems specifically, and that's particularly where I see them being oblivious. Obviously Wisconsin is a very purple state; I just think Evers isn't the best candidate to speak to the whole state and rural votes obviously count, too.

I think Evers is polling pretty well in the rural parts (he's winning the North and the West) of the state and lot better than Tom Barrett and Mary Burke. His favoriability ratings are even higher than theirs. I honestly don't think Keda Roys or Kathleen Vinhout would be polling any better than Evers. And our state is very polarized (Trump will help with that tommorrow). While there will be more ticketsplitters than usual (which could hurt Evers), I am convinced Evers will ride Baldwin's coattails if he continues his lead in the polls.

[Koharu]

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking.

No, you're fine. I was talking about hofoid, who claimed that Wisconsin is the next Arkansas.

That's what I thought, but I had to check. Yay, anxiety. Thanks!

[Scottholes 2.0]

Walker is DESPERATE and dog-whistling 2 weeks until Election Day: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/23/wisconsin-governors-race-walker-says-evers-wants-help-illegals/1739967002/

Just continually lying to scare voters.

[Badger]

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.

It's one thing if she raised less than the others, but still raised an OK amount. Raising a mere few thousand dollars is absolutely pathetic though. That wouldn't even be good enough for a county commissioner election, nevermind a statewide election!

Depends on your county, city boy.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I hope Trump blows Walker's chances of winning even more with his unnecessary visit to our state today.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

[Xing]

Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

Yes, a three-point lead for a Democrat in a junk poll that has NV as a dark red state is irrefutable evidence that Wisconsin is as Republican as Arkansas.

[Xing]

Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

Yes, a three-point lead for a Democrat in a junk poll that has NV as a dark red state is irrefutable evidence that Wisconsin is as Republican as Arkansas.

delete

I'll look forward to drinking your salty tears on November 7th when your God Scott Walker loses re-election. See you then.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

Yes, a three-point lead for a Democrat in a junk poll that has NV as a dark red state is irrefutable evidence that Wisconsin is as Republican as Arkansas.

deleted

So, I guess if it were Walker leading by 3, you'd still be calling him a winner?

Even the 10-point Marist lead wasn't enough for you. Please stop trolling. It is getting ridiculous now.