Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 86691 times)
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #800 on: October 30, 2018, 01:30:11 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 01:28:07 PM
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on October 30, 2018, 01:15:10 PM
Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056


If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.
He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #801 on: October 30, 2018, 01:32:46 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 30, 2018, 01:30:11 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 01:28:07 PM
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on October 30, 2018, 01:15:10 PM
Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056


If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.
He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).

If he can’t win WI-06, he can’t win the Driftless. You act like the Driftless is dark red because “muh 2016” when Rebecca Dallet dominated that same region in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #802 on: October 30, 2018, 01:38:56 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 01:32:46 PM
Quote from: hofoid on October 30, 2018, 01:30:11 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 01:28:07 PM
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on October 30, 2018, 01:15:10 PM
Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056


If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.
He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).

If he can’t win WI-06, he can’t win the Driftless. You act like the Driftless is dark red because “muh 2016” when Rebecca Dallet dominated that same region in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

Yeah, most polling shows the Democrats have rebounded pretty well in the Driftless area, outside of maybe that belt of counties of Monroe, Juneau, Adams and Marquette (debatable of those last two are in the Driftless Area.
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Koharu
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« Reply #803 on: October 30, 2018, 02:00:06 PM »
Just want to say that I've been helping out at City Hall with early voting, and it has been crazy busy. We may meet or exceed the number of early votes here in my town compared to 2016. It'll be very interesting to see what the total turnout ends up being when all is said and done. Luckily, I get to work election night so I'll likely get to see the turnout numbers then.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #804 on: October 30, 2018, 02:04:32 PM »
Pence is coming to Hudson on Sunday.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #805 on: October 30, 2018, 02:33:11 PM »
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on October 30, 2018, 01:15:10 PM
Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056



Wow! Impressive!

BTW Emerson just confirmed for me that a new WI poll for the governor and U.S. Senate race will be released on Friday!
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #806 on: October 30, 2018, 03:54:24 PM »
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #807 on: October 30, 2018, 04:13:20 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on October 30, 2018, 03:54:24 PM

I can't wait; I've been waiting for Marquette to come back and give us those Gold Standard numbers.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #808 on: October 30, 2018, 04:57:53 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 30, 2018, 04:13:20 PM
Quote from: Mondale on October 30, 2018, 03:54:24 PM

I can't wait; I've been waiting for Marquette to come back and give us those Gold Standard numbers.

MU is not a Gold Standard. Marist is just as good as MU according to 538. Plus, MU seems to be biased towards Walker. They're the only pollster to show him ahead this election cycle. Could be a coincidence!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #809 on: October 31, 2018, 10:24:45 AM »
Evers is now getting a State Patrol guard similar to Walker:
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #810 on: October 31, 2018, 10:28:40 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 10:24:45 AM
Evers is now getting a State Patrol guard similar to Walker:



Conservatives are quickly pouncing on this being "fake news" and no such thing actually happening.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #811 on: October 31, 2018, 12:06:58 PM »
I am super nervous about the new MU poll. They have been the only pollster loyal to Walker throughout this election cycle, so it won't surprise me if Walker is leading.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #812 on: October 31, 2018, 12:11:30 PM »
Quote from: Garfield County Republicans 4 Candidate Quality on October 26, 2018, 02:17:18 PM
It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Sticking with this, and I’d be shocked if Walker was ahead. It’s more likely that they show Evers winning by high single-digits or low double-digits than Walker leading even narrowly.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #813 on: October 31, 2018, 12:14:15 PM »
My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #814 on: October 31, 2018, 12:15:20 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 31, 2018, 12:14:15 PM
My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.

How are you going to spin it if Evers is up by 5 or more?
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #815 on: October 31, 2018, 12:17:09 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 31, 2018, 12:15:20 PM
Quote from: hofoid on October 31, 2018, 12:14:15 PM
My body is ready for the Marquette poll . People don't understand how much I've been waiting for it.

How are you going to spin it if Evers is up by 5 or more?
I'm gonna pore over the crosstabs as well as measure it against early voting numbers.
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Politician
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« Reply #816 on: October 31, 2018, 12:17:41 PM »
I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.
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Galaxie
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« Reply #817 on: October 31, 2018, 12:19:06 PM »
This Twitter release is torturous
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #818 on: October 31, 2018, 12:19:53 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 31, 2018, 12:17:41 PM
I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.
I'm predicting the same. There seems to be no change from the fundamentals from then till today.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #819 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:07 PM »
I'm sticking with a tie as my prediction.

Quote from: hofoid on October 31, 2018, 12:19:53 PM
Quote from: Politician on October 31, 2018, 12:17:41 PM
I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.
I'm predicting the same. There seems to be no change from the fundamentals from then till today.
Uhhhh, no.  Things have improved for Dems in the past couple weeks.
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Galaxie
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« Reply #820 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:27 PM »
Gonna go with Evers +1
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Gass3268
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« Reply #821 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:39 PM »
A lot more Likely voter respondents then the past, about 300 more. Good to see them increase the size of the sample.

I'm going Walker +1, Baldwin +7.
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Galaxie
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« Reply #822 on: October 31, 2018, 12:23:48 PM »
Well, it's a tie.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #823 on: October 31, 2018, 12:24:55 PM »

It's not even a rounded tie, it's an exact tie with respondents.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #824 on: October 31, 2018, 12:25:01 PM »
WI, a state after Ayn Rand's own heart.
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