Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Zaybay]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

Milwaukee's problem is that 1) it tries to play second-fiddle to Chicago instead of trying to develop its own niche and identity, and 2) it's followed the same patterns and traits of every post-industrial Midwestern city.

Milwaukee's problem is the old German roots, it's cheap and people have the "this is Milwaukee we can't do that/have nice things" no matter how much the city is booming and people are trying to help. It's one of the densest cities outside of the big cities in the country, it would be perfect for rail but the WOW counties are actively trying to destroy the city while getting the benefits of it for free. For example a regional transit authority is illegal per state law.

weird question, but could a D trifecta allowing a public transit network, followed by Milwaukee making one w/ Kenosha and Racine cause WOW to trend R and the southern+Milwaukee county suburbs to trend D, at least at the local and state levels?

With the gerrymander it'll be almost impossible for them to have a D trifecta. Then the problem is that a lot in Madison and outstate if not outright hate are ambivalent to Milwaukee. The biggest goof up was Doyle vetoing a RTS because it wasn't perfect. Milwaukee has a streetcar now, that's what we're going to have to be satisfied with expanding for a long time.

Its possible to get the governorship and the senate, but not the house. But with 2 chambers, it should be easy to make a D-leaning map for the senate, house, and national house, unless the state operates like NY, where each chamber makes its own map.

[Koharu]

On a second note I suspect Evers will win by at least a 25% margin.

In regards to the primary, I absolutely agree with you.

I think people underrestimate Walker's vulnerability for this election. I don't think Vinehout has a chance against Walker. I was going to vote for McCabe, but Evers seems more experienced and knowledgeable, so I think I'll be voting for him. I dom't umderstand why prople still think Walker has a good chance of winning, even after a Democrat won a statewide race recently and two senate seats have been flipped in heavy Trump districts.

I disagree. Take a look at his approvals in the recent Marquette poll, especially compared to Tammy Baldwin's approvals. He's sitting at 47% approval. Tammy is at 41%. He still has very strong support with those who are dedicated to turning out to vote.

[Scottholes 2.0]

And I disagree with you. The Marquette Poll also indicates that Evers is leading Walker by a small margin. I rest my case: Walker is more vulnerable than he was in the previous three elections, and Tammy Baldwin IS leading.

[Koharu]

And I disagree with you. The Marquette Poll also indicates that Evers is leading Walker by a small margin. I rest my case: Walker is more vulnerable than he was in the previous three elections, and Tammy Baldwin IS leading.

Um, no, it didn't. Tammy is leading, but Marquette did not show that for Walker.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/08/01/polls-scott-walker-faces-tougher-re-election-path-than-tammy-baldwin/874434002/


You can disagree all you want, but you haven't provided anything to back up your argument, and you straight-up were incorrect in your claim about Evers just now. The article I linked does mention other polls that show Evers leading, but I trust Marquette most in regards to Wisconsin and it did not show Evers leading.

I also believe Tammy's approval ratings (the 41%) more appropriately reflect feelings on Democrats that will affect the governor's race than her reelection poll results, mostly because she has the benefit of being an incumbent, as does Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I still rest my case and assert that Walker is more vulnerable than he was during the preceding elections. He's never been very popular anyway. It is possible for Evers (although I'm not a huge fan of him) to beat Walker, but it is also possible for Walker to win. We have the next few months to see how this race plays out with both of their campaigns. Some people here on the Atlas Forum have this race as Lean D, for a good reason.

[Gass3268]

Former Walker cabinet official claims in a new book that Scott Walker and Brad Schimel drove him to the brink of suicide.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027915002114658306

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027914228420804608

[mcmikk]

Former Walker cabinet official claims in a new book that Scott Walker and Brad Schimel drove him to the brink of suicide.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027915002114658306

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027914228420804608

Ouch.

Though, sadly, this book isn't going to make any bit of difference one way or the other in the election.

[Gass3268]

Dane County:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1029406723877027840

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wisconsin in general tends to have very high turnout.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1029414373465444352?s=21

For comparison, 2016 August primary turnout was 6.5%.

[Pollster]

Final update from my colleague tracking this primary - Evers consolidating support in the final few days, Roys has surged over the past few weeks but her support seems to be leveling off.

[Wiz in Wis]

AP calls Dem nomination for Evers. Barnes for LG as well.

[Skye]

Might as well post this here:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1029550432639770624

[libertpaulian]

Might as well post this here:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1029550432639770624

Geez, aren't you a month late, eh there, Crystal Ball?

[CookieDamage]

The Republican primary votes in the WOW counties greatly outnumber the Dem primary votes. I thought it would have been closer but I guess the WOW counties are pretty Republican even nowadays.

[ON Progressive]

The Republican primary votes in the WOW counties greatly outnumber the Dem primary votes. I thought it would have been closer but I guess the WOW counties are pretty Republican even nowadays.

WOW didn't really move a lot in 2016 though, and they are extremely inelastic. Even Evers lost two of those counties as he was winning by 40 points statewide.

[Wiz in Wis]

The Republican primary votes in the WOW counties greatly outnumber the Dem primary votes. I thought it would have been closer but I guess the WOW counties are pretty Republican even nowadays.

You know there is a Senate GOP primary right? and one of the candidates is from Waukesha?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1029552861217218561

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Huge Democratic turnout and swing in Eau Claire County. Comparing the 2018 GOV primaries to the 2016 General Elections percentages.

2018 Gubernatorial Primaries:

Dems 67.7% - GOP 32.2%

2016 Presidential Election Results

Clinton 50.4% - Trump 43.1%

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

[Dr. Arch]

Huge Democratic turnout in Eau Claire County. Comparing the 2018 GOV primaries to the 2016 General Elections percentages.

2018 Gubernatorial Primaries:

Dems 67.7% - GOP 32.2%

2016 Presidential Election Results

Clinton 50.4% - Trump 43.1%

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

WI is gonna whiplash hard.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sauk County, where I live, very narrowly voted for Trump in 2016.

Right now the Dems are outpacing the GOP 6,300 votes to 3,800 votes here. Mandela Barnes has more votes than Scott Walker, and Barnes is only winning his primary with 67% of the vote.

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats received more primary votes than Republicans. Does Evers beat Walker?

[Koharu]

Glad to see Mahlon Mitchell in second thus far, as he was my other personal favorite. Wish Vinehout could have done better, but she came in about where I expected. I'm not excited about Evers, but I'll be supporting him.

[Virginiá]

Democrats received more primary votes than Republicans. Does Evers beat Walker?

Primary turnout can be helpful to see what kind of enthusiasm gap there is, but it's not really the best for predicting general election results unless it's a top-two primary.

I suppose you could try to make some broad predictions about the overall GE result of all the races if the primary vote is insanely lopsided, though.

[Dr. Arch]

Over 6,000 people voted for Nehlen in WI-01. That's over 6,000 too many--frightening.