Wisconsin Megathread v2: Bye Felicia!

[Joni Ernst 20∞]

It’s honestly remarkable that Walker isn’t DOA in this massive Democratic tsunami environment (assuming the polls are accurate, of course). Obviously he could lose, but the race is not a sure thing for Democrats.

[The Inevitable Kevin Stitt]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

[Scottholes 2.0]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

[Bevinevitable]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

Agreed.

[Gass3268]

Looking at some of the numbers in the MU poll and it really tells you the story of what's going on.

1. Vukmir has really bad favorability numbers. She's currently sitting at -13. Baldwin is at +7, which makes her the most popular candidate running. Walker is at -1 and Evers is at +3.

2. Baldwin is winning or tied in every major gender/race/education group, except white non-college educated men where is losing by 20 points. Evers however is only up with white college educated women and nonwhites. The biggest difference is white non-college educated women. Baldwin is winning that group by 17 points while Walker is winning that same group by 2 points.

3. One final interesting point looking at the crosstabs is party loyalty. Baldwin is currently getting 12% of self-declared Republicans while only losing 1% of the Democrats. Everson on the other hand is only getting 5% of self-declared Republicans and is losing an equal amount of Democrats, 5%.

To me the main take away is the non-college educated white women. Evers wins if he can get closer to Baldwin's numbers there.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

[AOC for President 2032]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

[Wiz in Wis]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

The share of College Ed in Marist is 44%, it's 40% in Marquette... hardly enough to explain the variance alone... and it should be pointed out that Baldwin/Vukmir are almost the same in both polls.

[Xing]

The average of the two polls is Super Nintendo Evers +4.5, which isn't implausible at all.

[libertpaulian]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

[DTC]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

[mcmikk]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

[libertpaulian]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

He's the state superintendent of education.

[Gass3268]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

Here

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake

If Evers was as handsome as Trudeau he would probably be an absolute lock to win.

[libertpaulian]

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake

If Evers was as handsome as Trudeau he would probably be an absolute lock to win.

If Tony Evers was as hot as James Smith, he'd be leading by 18%.

[Koharu]

As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.

[Scottholes 2.0]

As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.

May I ask what you are talking about? Walker is still polling poorly. Evers recently led Walker by 10 points in a recent poll. TEN! I don't understand why you think the race is in Walker's favor and Evers is campaigning bad. Yesterday was ONE poll. Walker has never trailed this badly in polls before. Walker hasn't even managed to get more than a 4-point lead in a poll this cycle and has only led in two polls. Walker led in overrall polls in his last three elections, yet won by only 5 points in all three.  I'm glad you're canvassing (like I am) because Evers could benefit from that, but Evers is doing a lot better than Mary Burke in the polls. How do you know rural WI isn't going to go to Evers? I see plently of Tony Evers signs in rural areas of WI. I travel across the state every week for conference meetings. Maybe geography hasn't been too kind for you?

I used to think Evers was not favored, but he's doing pretty darn good to be running against Walker, and I've seen many people mobilized about Evers across the state. Good luck with your canvassing. I commend you for that! Enjoy this bipolar weather in our state!

[Xing]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

Walker won by about 5.5 in 2010, and it's possible that Evers could win by that much, but I think it'll be somewhat closer.

[Gass3268]

As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.

Marist has Evers winning by 9 in the Southwest and by 2 in the North.

[Koharu]

Marist has Evers winning by 9 in the Southwest and by 2 in the North.

The southwest is way less worrisome to me than central and northern WI. As you indicated, the polls are much closer there. As per usual, it will come down to turn out, but the awfulness of the last four years and the 2016 election has me all nervous. If Feingold hadn't been defeated the way he was, plus a few other things that I've seen anecdotally, I'd just be a lot less worried. I'm so hoping to be proven wrong, but yes, this one poll has me freaking out, mostly because it is Marquette.

[mcmikk]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

Walker won by about 5.5 in 2010, and it's possible that Evers could win by that much, but I think it'll be somewhat closer.

I honestly don't think it will be that close. Mainly due to polling showing Evers consistently ahead, sometimes by hefty margins, but also due to all the signs that point to the #BlueWave hitting WI hard. Baldwin is leading by double digits, Supreme Court Election earlier this year, special elections in the state legislature, etc. I don't think Evers will win by double digits like Baldwin will, but Walker's incumbency and popularity with the base will only help him so much when most of the electorate will be the liberal base that despises him.

[Gass3268]

Brutal ad against Walker:

[Scottholes 2.0]

Brutal ad against Walker:

We've tried to get this man out of office THREE TIMES. Enough is enough! Walker, please go away like Ryan is doing!