Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Xing]

Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.

[Wiz in Wis]

Apparently, Evers's lead among Independents is now +6 whereas it was +20 in September (which was always a little hard to believe.) +6 is still a good place for him to be, especially since Independents are more likely to be undecided.

Independents in this poll is usually single digits, so don't over interpret those swings. Franklin pushes almost everyone into partisan bowls.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

[Xing]

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.

[respect mah majoritah!]

When Walker wins by 3 you’ll realize that his Electric Company ad was what sealed the deal.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is what happens when National Dems decide that Atlanta CEO's are the new base of the party.

You're right. They're much better off listening to a concern troll on US Election Atlas dot org.

You have people cheerleading identity politics on the 2020 board here. Both sides do it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL Walker isn't winning while Baldwin is winning by double digits. Leans D.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

LOL Walker isn't winning while Baldwin is winning by double digits. Leans D.

Not that hard to believe.  Walker is keeping Romney margins in WOW, while having DJT numbers elsewhere.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL Walker isn't winning while Baldwin is winning by double digits. Leans D.

Not that hard to believe.  Walker is keeping Romney margins in WOW, while having DJT numbers elsewhere.

Uhhhh no way? Walker is a horrible fit for Obama-Trump voters. He's an elitist establishment WoW hack. He appeals to them, but he doesn't appeal to anyone else. Same with Vukmir.

[Scottholes 2.0]

How the heck can Walker survive reelection if Baldwin is consistantly leading Vukmir by a pretty wide margin? WI can't possibly have that many ticketsplitters - not my very polarized state!

[Xing]

I doubt Walker wins if Baldwin wins by 10. If polls are overestimating Democrats a bit, and Baldwin (who could afford to underperform her polls) wins by more like 7, he could possibly eke out a win. I'm not predicting that Walker will win, but Democrats (especially those of you in Wisconsin ) shouldn't rule it out, and should work tirelessly to elect Evers.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s honestly remarkable that Walker isn’t DOA in this massive Democratic tsunami environment (assuming the polls are accurate, of course). Obviously he could lose, but the race is not a sure thing for Democrats.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

[Landslide Andy]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Y’all need to take a chill pill. MU is the only poll to have Walker leading this whole year. Trust the average

I'll try. I contacted Emerson and Suffolk last week. Emerson said they'll be conducting a poll for WI at the end of the month, whereas Suffolk said they should be conducting a poll for WI soon (don't know how soon, but they put me on their polling distribution list, so I'll keep y'all updated).

Emerson is garbage though.

Agreed.

[Gass3268]

Looking at some of the numbers in the MU poll and it really tells you the story of what's going on.

1. Vukmir has really bad favorability numbers. She's currently sitting at -13. Baldwin is at +7, which makes her the most popular candidate running. Walker is at -1 and Evers is at +3.

2. Baldwin is winning or tied in every major gender/race/education group, except white non-college educated men where is losing by 20 points. Evers however is only up with white college educated women and nonwhites. The biggest difference is white non-college educated women. Baldwin is winning that group by 17 points while Walker is winning that same group by 2 points.

3. One final interesting point looking at the crosstabs is party loyalty. Baldwin is currently getting 12% of self-declared Republicans while only losing 1% of the Democrats. Everson on the other hand is only getting 5% of self-declared Republicans and is losing an equal amount of Democrats, 5%.

To me the main take away is the non-college educated white women. Evers wins if he can get closer to Baldwin's numbers there.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

[Wiz in Wis]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

Hmm, this is telling me to believe the Gold Standard over Marist.

The share of College Ed in Marist is 44%, it's 40% in Marquette... hardly enough to explain the variance alone... and it should be pointed out that Baldwin/Vukmir are almost the same in both polls.

[Xing]

The average of the two polls is Super Nintendo Evers +4.5, which isn't implausible at all.

[libertpaulian]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

[Andy Beshear Have My Babies]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

[mcmikk]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

[libertpaulian]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

He's the state superintendent of education.

[Gass3268]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

Here