Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 86344 times)
mcmikk
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« Reply #675 on: October 12, 2018, 08:44:42 AM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 11, 2018, 10:58:40 PM
Quote from: mcmikk on October 11, 2018, 06:39:24 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 11, 2018, 06:33:40 PM
My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 


That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

Walker won by about 5.5 in 2010, and it's possible that Evers could win by that much, but I think it'll be somewhat closer.

I honestly don't think it will be that close. Mainly due to polling showing Evers consistently ahead, sometimes by hefty margins, but also due to all the signs that point to the #BlueWave hitting WI hard. Baldwin is leading by double digits, Supreme Court Election earlier this year, special elections in the state legislature, etc. I don't think Evers will win by double digits like Baldwin will, but Walker's incumbency and popularity with the base will only help him so much when most of the electorate will be the liberal base that despises him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #676 on: October 15, 2018, 01:06:52 PM »
Brutal ad against Walker:
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #677 on: October 15, 2018, 01:14:53 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 15, 2018, 01:06:52 PM
Brutal ad against Walker:



We've tried to get this man out of office THREE TIMES. Enough is enough! Walker, please go away like Ryan is doing!
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #678 on: October 16, 2018, 11:35:39 PM »
According to DQ Desktop, this is what an Evers 4-point win would look like:

They also project that Baldwin will win by 12 points:

That would be a heck of a lot of ticketsplitters, which I sincerely doubt! Also, I'd flip St. Croix instead of Marathon county.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #679 on: October 17, 2018, 12:59:13 AM »
Nice maps! Although really, the Mississippi Valley needs even more blue...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #680 on: October 17, 2018, 07:55:52 AM »
Agree with you on St. Croix, that county has strangly moved a bit to the left since 2016. Doubt it goes for Evers, but I would be shocked if Baldwin doesn't carry it.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #681 on: October 17, 2018, 09:59:38 AM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 17, 2018, 07:55:52 AM
Agree with you on St. Croix, that county has strangly moved a bit to the left since 2016. Doubt it goes for Evers, but I would be shocked if Baldwin doesn't carry it.

Similarly, I don't think Walker is likely to lose by 4 but carry Winnebago County, but ymmv.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #682 on: October 17, 2018, 12:43:49 PM »
I can't wait until the next MU Law poll!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #683 on: October 17, 2018, 03:24:49 PM »
Quote from: BlueFlapjack on October 17, 2018, 12:43:49 PM
I can't wait until the next MU Law poll!

Their polling it again already? I'd rather see polling from a new firm.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #684 on: October 17, 2018, 05:34:45 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 17, 2018, 03:24:49 PM
Quote from: BlueFlapjack on October 17, 2018, 12:43:49 PM
I can't wait until the next MU Law poll!

Their polling it again already? I'd rather see polling from a new firm.

Yes, on October 31st, so less than 2 weeks from now. MU makes me nervous and is overrated by Atlas users imo. They seem to be an R interneral for Walker.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #685 on: October 17, 2018, 05:57:07 PM »
Trump is coming Mosinee for Leah Vukmir. So far no word if Walker will be in attendance.

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1052667181304094720
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #686 on: October 17, 2018, 05:59:01 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 05:57:07 PM
Trump is coming Mosinee for Leah Vukmir. So far no word if Walker will be in attendance.

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1052667181304094720

Oh dear.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #687 on: October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM »
This is notable:
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Xing
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« Reply #688 on: October 18, 2018, 09:56:00 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:



But they think Vukmir has a chance? Lol, he’s clearly campaigning for himself in 2020.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #689 on: October 18, 2018, 09:57:36 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:


If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #690 on: October 18, 2018, 09:58:19 AM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 18, 2018, 09:57:36 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:


If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.
OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #691 on: October 18, 2018, 10:18:07 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 18, 2018, 09:58:19 AM
Quote from: hofoid on October 18, 2018, 09:57:36 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:


If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.
OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...


PPP (a Dem-affiliated polling agency) held back on the Governor numbers. There was something there that was extremely uncomfortable for them. This is why Marquette is the "Gold Standard", because they weigh properly.   
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #692 on: October 18, 2018, 10:27:44 AM »
Just because PPP decided to pull the plug on the poll for the governor's race, doesn't mean Walker still has a chance. Please stop.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #693 on: October 18, 2018, 11:13:33 AM »
More bad news for Walker:
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #694 on: October 18, 2018, 11:24:00 AM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 18, 2018, 10:18:07 AM
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 18, 2018, 09:58:19 AM
Quote from: hofoid on October 18, 2018, 09:57:36 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:


If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.
OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...


PPP (a Dem-affiliated polling agency) held back on the Governor numbers. There was something there that was extremely uncomfortable for them. This is why Marquette is the "Gold Standard", because they weigh properly.   

The poll was commissioned by groups supporting Baldwin, and asking about Evers/Walker costs money. In fact, if our database is any guide, most of the time PPP polls Wisconsin, they ask only about the gov race or the senate race.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #695 on: October 18, 2018, 02:48:39 PM »
Tony Evers thinks we should ignore the polls. That's going to be tough to do, especially after the last MU poll.

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1052985315743416321
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #696 on: October 18, 2018, 07:17:45 PM »
Quote from: BlueFlapjack on October 18, 2018, 02:48:39 PM
Tony Evers thinks we should ignore the polls. That's going to be tough to do, especially after the last MU poll.

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1052985315743416321

He’s not wrong, though. Getting complacent/overconfident is never a good idea, and your vote is the only thing that matters.

Anyway, Wisconsin is a must-win state for the GOP in 2020, so a Walker defeat would have terrible ramifications for Trump's chances in 2020.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #697 on: October 18, 2018, 08:00:40 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 18, 2018, 09:50:54 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:02 AM
This is notable:



Everyone tells me Walker has at least a 50% chance though because Trump won here with 47% of the bote

muh 3 elections in 4 years
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #698 on: October 18, 2018, 08:41:37 PM »
Trump will be coming to Wisconson next week to rally with Walker and Vukmir. Will that help or hurt Walker?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #699 on: October 18, 2018, 10:31:34 PM »
Quote from: BlueFlapjack on October 18, 2018, 08:41:37 PM
Trump will be coming to Wisconson next week to rally with Walker and Vukmir. Will that help or hurt Walker?

Probably no effect one way or the other.
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