Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Do you see Highway-29 down there? It connects Green Bay to Wausau to Chippewa Falls to then I-94 near Menomonee. By many it is the defining line between Central and Northern (Northwoods) Wisconsin.



Compare that to the swing map that AG created:



You can see that road line almost clear as day on the map.

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you see Highway-29 down there? It connects Green Bay to Wausau to Chippewa Falls to then I-94 near Menomonee. By many it is the defining line between Central and Northern (Northwoods) Wisconsin.



Compare that to the swing map that AG created:



You can see that road line almost clear as day on the map.

Also, Langlade will turn to the light blue shade, which is very good for aesthetic reasons. Sets up a clear pattern. If your county is losing population due to natural decrease (more deaths than births) you stayed with Walker... if you were doing better, you swung to Evers.

The places with the best economy... dumped the governor who was desperate to claim credit for it.

[MasterJedi]

This is gold: https://www.facebook.com/79146833756/posts/10156225759733757/

[Scottholes 2.0]

In addition to Dane and the WOW counties swinging towards Evers, Rock County swung towards him as well. Does anybody know why that is?

[MasterJedi]

Walker’s magic surplus is gone, $2 billion dollar hole we’re in right now. Local Republicans calling it fake news and blaming the deficit on Evers and Doyle if you can believe that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker’s magic surplus is gone, $2 billion dollar hole we’re in right now. Local Republicans calling it fake news and blaming the deficit on Evers and Doyle if you can believe that.

I've heard Republicans blame 9/11 on Obama, so there's pretty much no limit on how ridiculous their claims can get.

[Bidenworth2020]

tony evers reminds me a ton of mark Dayton tbh... he will basically make Wisconsin a new Minnesota I hope!

[wbrocks67]

Is WI heavily gerrymandered? Wondering why the state level results were good but house results not so much.

[Doimper]

tony evers reminds me a ton of mark Dayton tbh... he will basically make Wisconsin a new Minnesota I hope!

The extent to which Walker and co. have trashed Wisconsin becomes pretty apparent when you compare it to Minnesota

[Gass3268]

Here is the differences in how much better Baldwin did than Evers in each county:

FOREST   18.75%
CLARK   18.54%
TAYLOR   17.69%
BUFFALO   17.54%
CRAWFORD   16.98%
TREMPEALEAU   16.59%
LANGLADE   16.41%
MANITOWOC   15.70%
PRICE   15.44%
LINCOLN   15.40%
MARATHON   14.86%
JACKSON   14.67%
RUSK   14.44%
MARINETTE   14.33%
KEWAUNEE   14.20%
DOOR   13.76%
CALUMET   13.62%
VERNON   13.52%
CHIPPEWA   13.51%
LAFAYETTE   13.48%
GREEN LAKE   13.38%
ONEIDA   13.35%
WOOD   13.06%
SHAWANO   12.93%
OCONTO   12.79%
MONROE   12.36%
WAUSHARA   12.18%
IRON   12.15%
DODGE   11.75%
SHEBOYGAN   11.64%
VILAS   11.52%
WASHINGTON   11.51%
PEPIN   11.49%
BURNETT   11.44%
BROWN   11.33%
WALWORTH   11.27%
OUTAGAMIE   11.18%
FOND DU LAC   11.04%
OZAUKEE   11.01%
WAUPACA   10.91%
ADAMS   10.81%
MARQUETTE   10.77%
LA CROSSE   10.57%
PORTAGE   10.44%
SAWYER   10.31%
WINNEBAGO   10.13%
WAUKESHA   10.03%
EAU CLAIRE   9.80%
RICHLAND   9.75%
JUNEAU   9.73%
RACINE   9.73%
JEFFERSON   9.69%
GRANT   9.53%
IOWA   9.38%
DUNN   9.28%
KENOSHA   9.12%
BARRON   9.09%
GREEN   8.94%
POLK   8.86%
PIERCE   8.68%
ASHLAND   8.43%
WASHBURN   8.02%
MILWAUKEE   7.90%
ST. CROIX   7.73%
SAUK   7.24%
BAYFIELD   7.07%
ROCK   6.74%
FLORENCE   6.72%
COLUMBIA   6.69%
DOUGLAS   5.42%
MENOMINEE   4.66%
DANE   4.09%

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Here is the differences in how much better Baldwin did than Evers in each county:

FOREST   18.75%
CLARK   18.54%
TAYLOR   17.69%
BUFFALO   17.54%
CRAWFORD   16.98%
TREMPEALEAU   16.59%
LANGLADE   16.41%
MANITOWOC   15.70%
PRICE   15.44%
LINCOLN   15.40%
MARATHON   14.86%
JACKSON   14.67%
RUSK   14.44%
MARINETTE   14.33%
KEWAUNEE   14.20%
DOOR   13.76%
CALUMET   13.62%
VERNON   13.52%
CHIPPEWA   13.51%
LAFAYETTE   13.48%
GREEN LAKE   13.38%
ONEIDA   13.35%
WOOD   13.06%
SHAWANO   12.93%
OCONTO   12.79%
MONROE   12.36%
WAUSHARA   12.18%
IRON   12.15%
DODGE   11.75%
SHEBOYGAN   11.64%
VILAS   11.52%
WASHINGTON   11.51%
PEPIN   11.49%
BURNETT   11.44%
BROWN   11.33%
WALWORTH   11.27%
OUTAGAMIE   11.18%
FOND DU LAC   11.04%
OZAUKEE   11.01%
WAUPACA   10.91%
ADAMS   10.81%
MARQUETTE   10.77%
LA CROSSE   10.57%
PORTAGE   10.44%
SAWYER   10.31%
WINNEBAGO   10.13%
WAUKESHA   10.03%
EAU CLAIRE   9.80%
RICHLAND   9.75%
JUNEAU   9.73%
RACINE   9.73%
JEFFERSON   9.69%
GRANT   9.53%
IOWA   9.38%
DUNN   9.28%
KENOSHA   9.12%
BARRON   9.09%
GREEN   8.94%
POLK   8.86%
PIERCE   8.68%
ASHLAND   8.43%
WASHBURN   8.02%
MILWAUKEE   7.90%
ST. CROIX   7.73%
SAUK   7.24%
BAYFIELD   7.07%
ROCK   6.74%
FLORENCE   6.72%
COLUMBIA   6.69%
DOUGLAS   5.42%
MENOMINEE   4.66%
DANE   4.09%

Eyeballing that list, looks like Baldwin had a killing up North. Incumbent effect?

[Nhoj]

Do you see Highway-29 down there? It connects Green Bay to Wausau to Chippewa Falls to then I-94 near Menomonee. By many it is the defining line between Central and Northern (Northwoods) Wisconsin.



Compare that to the swing map that AG created:



You can see that road line almost clear as day on the map.

the Freeway portion of 53 also ends in Barron county. So there is some definite correlation. The central Wi counties by the interstates swung to walker so its not perfect.

[ElectionsGuy]

Walker's performance among the most college-educated areas of the state, both Democratic and Republican, cost him the election. Through no fault of his own, Walker's performance trend followed Trump's performance in the 2016 election, as did almost every Republican's performance in almost every state. The WOW counties more than cancelled out Dane in 2014, and it wasn't even close. In 2018, it wasn't close either, but this time Dane outdid WOW.

WOW 2014

Walker: 230,240 (73.3%) (+146,537, 46.6%)
Burke: 83,703 (26.7%)

WOW 2018

Walker: 229,708 (67.8%) (+120,498, 35.6%)
Evers: 109,210 (32.2%)

Dane 2014

Burke: 175,937 (70.5%) (+102,261, 41.0%)
Walker: 73,676 (29.5%)

Dane 2018

Evers: 220,008 (76.1%) (+150,810, 52.2%)
Walker: 69,198 (23.9%)

[IceSpear]

Walker's performance among the most college-educated areas of the state, both Democratic and Republican, cost him the election. Through no fault of his own, Walker's performance trend followed Trump's performance in the 2016 election, as did almost every Republican's performance in almost every state. The WOW counties more than cancelled out Dane in 2014, and it wasn't even close. In 2018, it wasn't close either, but this time Dane outdid WOW.

WOW 2014

Walker: 230,240 (73.3%) (+146,537, 46.6%)
Burke: 83,703 (26.7%)

WOW 2018

Walker: 229,708 (67.8%) (+120,498, 35.6%)
Evers: 109,210 (32.2%)

Dane 2014

Burke: 175,937 (70.5%) (+102,261, 41.0%)
Walker: 73,676 (29.5%)

Dane 2018

Evers: 220,008 (76.1%) (+150,810, 52.2%)
Walker: 69,198 (23.9%)

Yeah, I'm feeling better about Wisconsin in 2020 than I did a week ago. I thought WOW would end up being more similar to Mormon anti-Trumpers rather than the other suburban anti-Trumpers, but I guess not. Look at Tammy Baldwin's performance in WOW for some real eye popping numbers. And that was Vukmir's "base"!

[Devout Centrist]

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Wait, Walker unperformed his raw vote totals?? That's pretty pathetic given how high turnout was relative to 2014.

[Wiz in Wis]

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Wait, Walker unperformed his raw vote totals?? That's pretty pathetic given how high turnout was relative to 2014.

This suggests the following: Walker lost a small number of folks to conversion. Some Walker 2014 decided to try a new guy... BUT... a ton of Dems who sat out 2014 decided to get active in 2018.

[Wiz in Wis]

Following up on the raw vote concept. After comparing the preliminary numbers AP is reporting to the official 2016 numbers, you get the following map:



Counties in green are where Tony Evers got more raw votes than Hillary Clinton, and red counties are where Scott Walker got more raw votes than Donald Trump. White counties are where neither governor candidate outran their partisan presidential equivalent.

[libertpaulian]

I'd love to know which Trump/Walker WWC counties in western Wisconsin went for Evers this time around.

[Wiz in Wis]

I'd love to know which Trump/Walker WWC counties in western Wisconsin went for Evers this time around.

Counties that were Trump 2016 and Walker 2014 and Evers 2018:

Grant, Richland, Kenosha

[Scottholes 2.0]

This is RIDICULOUS! This could cause uninformed voters to turn on Evers by the end of his first term: https://www.channel3000.com/news/evers-wants-to-do-stuff-as-governor-but-it-will-be-tough-1/857407919

Does anyone know if Grethen Whitmer in Michigan is going through the same thing with her Republican lesiglature???

[henster]

This is RIDICULOUS! This could cause uninformed voters to turn on Evers by the end of his first term: https://www.channel3000.com/news/evers-wants-to-do-stuff-as-governor-but-it-will-be-tough-1/857407919

Does anyone know if Grethen Whitmer in Michigan is going through the same thing with her Republican lesiglature???

This is nothing new a lot of Govs go through this when they win and face a hostile legislature, Northam did and still got Medicaid through. He will just have to play hardball no budget until he gets specific things.

[Gass3268]

Democrats are gonna make sure the Republicans can't gerrymander:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1062070477441679363

[MasterJedi]

In Vos's words "no money for empty buses, streetcars or mass transit" "no more money for education, we have spent enough". Is willing to spend on roads/bridges though but nothing else.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

In Vos's words "no money for empty buses, streetcars or mass transit" "no more money for education, we have spent enough". Is willing to spend on roads/bridges though but nothing else.

This is why I despise the Wisconsin GOP right there. Seriously? No investments in education? After they screwed over teachers?

[MasterJedi]

In Vos's words "no money for empty buses, streetcars or mass transit" "no more money for education, we have spent enough". Is willing to spend on roads/bridges though but nothing else.

This is why I despise the Wisconsin GOP right there. Seriously? No investments in education? After they screwed over teachers?

Oh, but "we invested more than any governor ever last year", ignoring how much they gutted everything in the 7 years before that. So to spend beyond it would be "reckless and require massive tax increases that will not happen".