Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Koharu]

It's best to think of Wisconsin "towns" as townships. Basically, the city of Verona exists inside Verona town(ship). City of Madison has annexed all the available nearby town space and can grow no more once they finish annexing what remains of the town of Madison. Fitchburg was a town, but they made the entire "town" into a city so that Madison couldn't continue annexing it. Cities and villages are set municipalities, whereas towns can be annexed. I really wish they should call them townships instead because town has its own, different connotation, but so it goes.

[Gass3268]

It's best to think of Wisconsin "towns" as townships. Basically, the city of Verona exists inside Verona town(ship). City of Madison has annexed all the available nearby town space and can grow no more once they finish annexing what remains of the town of Madison. Fitchburg was a town, but they made the entire "town" into a city so that Madison couldn't continue annexing it. Cities and villages are set municipalities, whereas towns can be annexed. I really wish they should call them townships instead because town has its own, different connotation, but so it goes.

Cities can annex areas outside of their original township. Madison within the next 20-30 years will have annexed all of the townships of Blooming Grove, Burke, Madison and probably Middleton in coordination with the neighboring suburbs (DeForest, Fitchburg, McFarland, Middleton and Sun Prairie).

[completely dead account]

Probably late to the party, but awesome how Scott Walker lost by 1.2 points. He made a law or something during his reign saying you couldn't ask for a recount if the margin was more than 1 point. Hahaha! He must be hating himself.

[Wiz in Wis]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

Dane County as a whole just seems like one huge progressive paradise. I don't think anywhere else in the Midwest comes close, with perhaps Washtenaw County being a possible candidate.

[UncleSam]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

Dane County as a whole just seems like one huge progressive paradise. I don't think anywhere else in the Midwest comes close, with perhaps Washtenaw County being a possible candidate.

Ann Arbor proper is more liberal than any portion of Dane and Ypsilanti is close to as liberal, but the other suburbs of Ann Arbor are actually fairly conservative - especially places like Saline or Chelsea. Washtenaw county as a whole is thus roughly as liberal as Dane is, just less monolithically blue and more standard ‘city = liberal suburbs / rurals = (more) conservative’.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

That is indeed a fun fact, although we are talking in very relative terms here. It looks like the UW precincts still vote over 70% Democratic.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

That is indeed a fun fact, although we are talking in very relative terms here. It looks like the UW precincts still vote over 70% Democratic.

It looks like all but one of the UW precincts is at least 70%. The rest of the UW precincts appear to be in the 60's range.

[Gass3268]

Once the election results are made official on December 3rd, I'll be making some maps and looking into some of the precinct data.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once the election results are made official on December 3rd, I'll be making some maps and looking into some of the precinct data.

Looking forward to that!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

That's mildly disappointing. What's the breakdown of in state-out of state students at UW? I've heard anecdotally that lots of D voters in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. are more conservative than the national average for their age range.

In retrospect I would have loved to have done a PhD in Madison. I'm keeping it in mind as a place to post doc when I'm done here in CO.

[MasterJedi]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

[bagelman]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

Wouldn't Evers be able to revert whatever changes he makes?

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

I like that idea. Wisconsin will be more important to the presidential contenders.

[Wiz in Wis]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

Wouldn't Evers be able to revert whatever changes he makes?

The primary date is scheduled by law, so no, Evers wouldn't be able to change it if the legislature passes it and Walker signs it. He'd need the legislature to change it back.

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/21/tony-evers-considers-ending-badgercare-work-requirement/2082327002/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1065395327644168195

[Scottholes 2.0]

The WI GOP won't back down.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/27/wisconsin-republicans-6-7-votes-short-kimberly-clark-bill/2125199002/

[MasterJedi]

The WI GOP won't back down.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/27/wisconsin-republicans-6-7-votes-short-kimberly-clark-bill/2125199002/

Have to love it, big corporation tells the state “you will give us this money or we will close the plant” and the Republican response is “sure thing boss” but kids getting lead poisoning or public transportation to get people to their jobs is a “waste of money”.

[Scottholes 2.0]

The WI GOP won't back down.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/27/wisconsin-republicans-6-7-votes-short-kimberly-clark-bill/2125199002/

Have to love it, big corporation tells the state “you will give us this money or we will close the plant” and the Republican response is “sure thing boss” but kids getting lead poisoning or public transportation to get people to their jobs is a “waste of money”.

How the heck will they get away with this?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1067862426580848640

[Virginiá]

How the heck will they get away with this?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1067862426580848640

Even if they try, there is no guarantee they do get away with it. As the article says, it's a little vague in the constitution but their supreme court already ruled a long time ago that redistricting is done like any other bill. Plus, Democrats probably have a good shot at flipping the state supreme court in 2020 (assuming they hold a seat next year), so they would probably reaffirm how redistricting is done if Republicans pushed it. Not to mention a chance that they would strike down a partisan gerrymander regardless of how the maps were enacted.

[Scottholes 2.0]

How the heck will they get away with this?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1067862426580848640

Even if they try, there is no guarantee they do get away with it. As the article says, it's a little vague in the constitution but their supreme court already ruled a long time ago that redistricting is done like any other bill. Plus, Democrats probably have a good shot at flipping the state supreme court in 2020 (assuming they hold a seat next year), so they would probably reaffirm how redistricting is done if Republicans pushed it. Not to mention a chance that they would strike down a partisan gerrymander regardless of how the maps were enacted.

Good. The gridlock is going to be so interesting!

[Wiz in Wis]

How the heck will they get away with this?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1067862426580848640

Even if they try, there is no guarantee they do get away with it. As the article says, it's a little vague in the constitution but their supreme court already ruled a long time ago that redistricting is done like any other bill. Plus, Democrats probably have a good shot at flipping the state supreme court in 2020 (assuming they hold a seat next year), so they would probably reaffirm how redistricting is done if Republicans pushed it. Not to mention a chance that they would strike down a partisan gerrymander regardless of how the maps were enacted.

Good. The gridlock is going to be so interesting!

Also, I don't know why you'd want to anger the Dems in advance of 2020... Wisconsin didn't go to Trump by that much, let alone adding a "Don't let the GOP steal it again!" refrain based on sore loserish nonsense now.

[Gass3268]

Excited that the election results will be certified and official numbers released on Monday. I have been prepping some data for a series that will look at recent election results (2018 Senate, 2018 Governor) from a bunch of different angles:

- Regional analysis based on my self defined regions.
- 250 (maybe more depending on interest) largest communities (cities and villages) in Wisconsin, plus their swings (maybe intrastate trends).
- Hopefully both contests by State Senate and Assembly districts. Miles might beat me to this.
- Ethnic results based on a pre-set sample of townships/villages/cities (Protestant Germans, Catholic Germans, Polish, Norwegians, Dutch, Belgians, and Swedish).
- Racial results based on a pre-set sample of precincts/wards (Native Americans, African Americans, and Hispanic Americans).
- Place-type analysis based on a pre-set sample (townships, villages, 1st class cities, 2nd class cities, 3rd class cities, and 4th class cities).
- Doing a county by county review comparing the Governor and Senate race to the prior contests (2014 and 2012) along with the 2016 Presidential contest.    

I'm hoping to have some maps invovled here to visualize and explain some of this data. Also I'm always open to look into requests or suggestions on what you'd like to see first.

[Gass3268]

More voter suppression in Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/rvetterkind/status/1068586093870792704