Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Foxconn as expected is a sham. AG Kaul should sue them.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1090602802446065666

[Virginiá]

Most recent example of why states should be banned from offering these kinds of corporate bribes. It's a race to the bottom, and state/local politicians can't be trusted to put the people's interests above their own.

[Gass3268]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

[Gass3268]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer. Mark my words.  

Your words mean nothing:

Now the Kochs are rushing to support Walker AGAIN to help him win and crash our blue wave. Argh!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/kochs-fund-1point8-million-ads-for-wisconsins-walker-ahead-of-midterms.html

Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.

[ON Progressive]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

Incumbent governor Scott Walker and Senator Leah Vukmir agree that your predictions are very accurate.

[Wiz in Wis]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

Incumbent governor Scott Walker and Senator Leah Vukmir agree that your predictions are very accurate.

Ah yes... the idea that Foxconn being a clusterfork is somehow going to hurt EVERS. Very. on. brand.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090978326817226753

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090969646742847488

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1091003092764626944

[Drew]

Democratic Party of WI chair Martha Laning won’t seek re-election.  Vice Chairman David Bowen, Kelda Roys, and Randy Bryce considering running.  Election in June 2019 at party convention.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-democratic-party-chairwoman-won-t-run-again-for-post/article_741d4bd9-082d-5db2-af54-bcde63cb1936.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democratic Party of WI chair Martha Laning won’t seek re-election.  Vice Chairman David Bowen, Kelda Roys, and Randy Bryce considering running.  Election in June 2019 at party convention.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-democratic-party-chairwoman-won-t-run-again-for-post/article_741d4bd9-082d-5db2-af54-bcde63cb1936.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

NO NO NO NO NO NO F[INKS] THAT WORTHLESS F[INKS]ING MORON FOREVER.

[Politician]

Democratic Party of WI chair Martha Laning won’t seek re-election.  Vice Chairman David Bowen, Kelda Roys, and Randy Bryce considering running.  Election in June 2019 at party convention.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-democratic-party-chairwoman-won-t-run-again-for-post/article_741d4bd9-082d-5db2-af54-bcde63cb1936.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

The Iron Deadbeat Jailbird becoming the Wisconsin Democratic Party chair will ensure Trump wins the state again.

[Gass3268]

Bryce has zero institutional support in the state.

[Scottholes 2.0]

So annoying. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/wisconsin-gerrymandering-case-delayed-pending-supreme-court-rulings/2742329002/

Also, will the Repubs let Evers get anything done? https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/07/wisconsin-gop-middle-class-tax-cut-moves-assembly/2801036002/

[Scottholes 2.0]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/12/gop-lawmakers-oppose-black-history-month-resolution-naming-kaepernick/2848626002/

[MasterJedi]

https://www.wisn.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-brian-hagedorn-augustine-academy-gays/26343309

Well, looks like the Republicans picked the wrong wagon to hitch themselves to for the supreme court election.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wisn.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-brian-hagedorn-augustine-academy-gays/26343309

Well, looks like the Republicans picked the wrong wagon to hitch themselves to for the supreme court election.

In these random spring elections you want to get your base to turnout

[Drew]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[Gass3268]

After changing his mind and deciding to run again, Paul Soglin will probably win a third consecutive term, for a total of 26 years over 3 stints.

[Gass3268]

3 Precincts remaining for the Madison Mayor primary:

Paul R. Soglin (NON)   28.8%   9,948
Satya Rhodes-Conway (NON)   27.6%   9,530
Mo Cheeks (NON)   23.1%   7,972
Raj Shukla (NON)   18.6%   6,410
Nick Hart (NON)   1.0%   359
WRITE-IN (NON)   0.9%   311

Really weak result for Soglin.

[Linus Van Pelt]

3 Precincts remaining for the Madison Mayor primary:

Paul R. Soglin (NON)   28.8%   9,948
Satya Rhodes-Conway (NON)   27.6%   9,530
Mo Cheeks (NON)   23.1%   7,972
Raj Shukla (NON)   18.6%   6,410
Nick Hart (NON)   1.0%   359
WRITE-IN (NON)   0.9%   311

Really weak result for Soglin.

So, the general election will be between Soglin and Rhodes-Conway. (For those posters not from here, it's a "top-two" primary, which combined with the nonpartisan aspect basically just means that it's a two-round system with the "general" being the runoff).

I'd expect Rhodes-Conway to win the majority of Cheeks and Shukla voters (although Cheeks is less obvious than Shukla).

The trouble is that you can't just reallocate voters since the general will have higher turnout. Soglin voters will emerge who are basically satisfied with how things are going but didn't bother to turn out for the primary. But it's hard to predict how many.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

I'd argue that "Little Chicago" Milwaukee is more of an albatross in this state.