Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Dr. Arch]

Barrett out.

👋🏻 bye 👋🏻

[Dr. Arch]

Is this a realistic hypothetical Election map, Wisconsinites? A Generic Dems wins by 2%

No. Northern Central Wisconsin should be redder, and central Wisconsin could be bluer. Racine is a big question mark, and places like Brown could end up surprising us.

[Dr. Arch]

Is this a realistic hypothetical Election map, Wisconsinites? A Generic Dems wins by 2%

No. Northern Central Wisconsin should be redder, and central Wisconsin could be bluer. Racine is a big question mark, and places like Brown could end up surprising us.

How about this?

That's pretty good. Flip Marathon and put Adams, Juneau, and Racine in absolutely tossup territory and flip Marquette, and we have a fair approximation of what might happen.

[Dr. Arch]

Lol

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1002570217816543232

Bye

[Dr. Arch]

Snip

Really like her, but not sure how she'd do against Walker (or as Governor).

I read that she gave a really good speech last night.

Link?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1006936215663374336

Evers briefly unveiled this about 5 days ago to not much fanfare. Thoughts anyone?

FF!!!!

[Dr. Arch]

Dana Wach's drops out of Governor's race, endorses Evers.

http://www.nbc15.com/content/news/Rep-Dana-Wachs-drops-out-of-governors-race-486264061.html

Looks like Evers has this locked in then.

[Dr. Arch]

Proudly voted absentee for Mitchell today.

I believe I've had a change of heart, and I think I'm switching my support over to Mitchell.

[Dr. Arch]

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

Evers is largely running a public meeting/ad style campaign in the big areas. Is his precense more pronounced elsewhere in the state? I imagine he's big in Western and Northern WI.

[Dr. Arch]

So, assuming Evers gets the nom, what does turnout look like in a hypothetical campaign where he pays minimal attention to Milwaukee/Madison? I'd guess Democrats are energized enough to turn out there anyway but is there any risk to not focusing campaign efforts there?

0 risk in Dane, trust me on that one.

[Dr. Arch]

If Dane County continues to deliver high margins for democrats and grows at a fast rate, democrats will probably always be competitive in Wisconsin. I've never understand why the rural areas of Dane County voted the way it did, though.

Because there's a lot of shared identity and commuters as well.

[Dr. Arch]

If Dane County continues to deliver high margins for democrats and grows at a fast rate, democrats will probably always be competitive in Wisconsin. I've never understand why the rural areas of Dane County voted the way it did, though.

Because there's a lot of shared identity and commuters as well.

True, but it's just interesting how Waukesha County delivered 72 percent for Scott Walker while Dane County delivered 70 percent for Mary Burke, yet both counties are only 30 miles apart. WI is very politically polarized, in my opinion, and the gerrymandering has only exacerbated the polarization.

Dane County does rank high for out-of-state migration. I read an article a long time ago which indicated that more than 40 percent of new residents in Dane came from other states, most of whom were from Cook County. The WOW counties were mostly built off of white flight, so perhaps maybe that could effect the politics?

Trust me, not perhaps, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Why is it so hard for people to realize that Tony Evers is the best candidate Democrats have in this race?

Maybe if some of his supporters would lay out arguments why...

1) He has a strong history of electoral success in the state.
2) He's hitting the right notes on all of the critical state issues with a progressive vision.
3) He knows the state well.
4) He's not from the "liberal bastions" that Republicans have worked hard on vilifying recently
5) He's active in national politics and gets involved (he was handing out water bottles to K-12 student protesters during the gun marches).
6) He can work across the aisle when he needs to.
7) He can strengthen down ballot performance for local Democrats.

[Dr. Arch]

Metric ton of Roys lawnsigns all over Dane. I'm actually impressed.

[Dr. Arch]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

[Dr. Arch]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

Milwaukee's problem is that 1) it tries to play second-fiddle to Chicago instead of trying to develop its own niche and identity, and 2) it's followed the same patterns and traits of every post-industrial Midwestern city.

Sounds about right. I couldn't be paid enough to move to a city where mediocrity is, by and large, the modus operandi apparent.

[Dr. Arch]

Huge Democratic turnout in Eau Claire County. Comparing the 2018 GOV primaries to the 2016 General Elections percentages.

2018 Gubernatorial Primaries:

Dems 67.7% - GOP 32.2%

2016 Presidential Election Results

Clinton 50.4% - Trump 43.1%

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

WI is gonna whiplash hard.

[Dr. Arch]

Over 6,000 people voted for Nehlen in WI-01. That's over 6,000 too many--frightening.

[Dr. Arch]

Good choice by Evers and Barnes!

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1029745033484877825

Mickie's is nice, but I grew to love Norske Nook more

[Dr. Arch]

Over 6,000 people voted for Nehlen in WI-01. That's over 6,000 too many--frightening.

Wisconsin is an open primary state. What if some of those 6,000 people were Democrats who wanted to get an easy to beat opponent in the general?

I sincerely doubt that.

[Dr. Arch]

First post primary poll has Evers with a 5 point lead over Walker, 49 - 44.

https://www.wpr.org/new-poll-shows-democrat-tony-evers-five-points-ahead-walker-general-election

That's very nice. Evers is almost at #50.

[Dr. Arch]

Now that he has an opponent, Walker is going full negative, as expected. I'm too lazy to find the exact article, but to paraphrase, Rebecca Kleefisch said Evers threatens our way of life in WI. The GOP is going to beat this teacher porn dead horse into the ground all the way until election day, whether the voters of WI are going to fall for this crap again remains to be seen.


In other news, flawless beautiful Russ Feingold endorsed Evers today.

https://twitter.com/russfeingold/status/1031216354479800326

So friggin' tiresome.

[Dr. Arch]

I felt hopeless when I voted for Burke in 2014, since I knew it would come down to luck. This year feels different top down, from candidate quality to potential. I think the seat may flip.

[Dr. Arch]

Things are not normal, but this is not the kind of thing that would create the sort of impact a hurricane would.

Please stop the insanity. Is WI Gov 2018 the new VA Gov 2017? The takes on this race over the last week have been beyond absurd.

[Dr. Arch]

The lakes can shed about 1-1.5 inches a day, but more than that is expected between today and tomorrow, and thunderstorms are in the forecast for most of the next week. It will be interesting to see what happens.

The Wisconsin National Guard was at Tenney Park unloaded mounds of sand. Many Isthmus buildings are lined with sandbags and plastic. We'll see how things develop.