Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (user search)
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  Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (search mode)
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 85577 times)
Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« on: June 29, 2018, 11:19:39 AM »


Hooboy. I didn't think they'd start admitting they aren't keeping their side of the deal so soon. Hopefully this gets coverage,  because Foxconn has voters of all stripes riled up.

Also, I'm a bit bummed Wachs dropped out,  but hopefully his supporters will go for Vinehout. We need someone who is progressive but not a Madison/Milwaukee native. Outstate dems already feel abandoned and unimportant. If someone like Evers (or, God forbid, Soglin) gets the nod, some of those outstate dems and anti-Walker independents will stay home.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2018, 11:29:49 AM »


Hooboy. I didn't think they'd start admitting they aren't keeping their side of the deal so soon. Hopefully this gets coverage,  because Foxconn has voters of all stripes riled up.

Also, I'm a bit bummed Wachs dropped out,  but hopefully his supporters will go for Vinehout. We need someone who is progressive but not a Madison/Milwaukee native. Outstate dems already feel abandoned and unimportant. If someone like Evers (or, God forbid, Soglin) gets the nod, some of those outstate dems and anti-Walker independents will stay home.

Evers has lived all over Wisconsin. He was born in Plymouth, studied in Madison, and worked in Tomah, Oakfield, Verona and Oshkosh before moving to Madison to become Deputy Superintendent.

Right,  but he is very much seen as being Madisonian. I have no issues with him but he will frustrate outstate voters who feel like Madison only cares about Madison,  which is a lot of the reason Walker has done as "well" electorally as he has. I grew up in rural Minnesota and now live in Madison. The rural/ urban divide is a huge deal and we have to stop ignoring it or we won't get anywhere.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 11:21:31 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2018, 11:25:14 AM by Koharu »

TMJ4 & UW Milwaukee Host Democratic Gubernatorial Debate, July 12, 2018

Video starts around 3 minutes in.

Included Tony Evers, Matt Flynn, Mike McCabe, Mahlon Mitchell, Josh Pade, Kelda Helen Roys, Paul R. Soglin, and Kathleen Vinehout.

My biggest frustration with all of this was the major question-avoidance.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2018, 07:18:48 AM »

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

There's Evers signs on the west side of Madison. Quite a few in Verona, as well as McCabe.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2018, 07:24:49 AM »

Evers has the primary in the bag, though I do not think he's the best option to go against Walker in Wisconsin's current climate. I'm afraid of his running against Walker; this state really cannot handle another four years of Walker. I can get into details re: my feelings on Evers if anyone is actually interested, but I feel like I'm the loner here in regards to him, and that's okay.

Anyway, I think this will be interesting:



As the link says, it can be listened to online if you're out-of-state and interested.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2018, 08:13:33 AM »

Oops, sorry for taking so long.

The big issues that I see is this is a state very divided. I grew up in rural Minnesota, and while Minnesota's divide between the Twin Cities and greater MN is different than the urban/rural divide in Wisconsin, I still understand it, much more so than other urban folks seem to, at any rate. So taking that into consideration, Vinehout is a very unique candidate.

Another big consideration is that this state is willing to vote either party, if they feel their needs will be met by that candidate. See all the swinging of the past while.


She is a former dairy farmer who goes deer hunting. This is huge in Wisconsin because one of the scare tactics here is "they're going to take our guns!" even though most Democrats support common sense gun laws, that's easily switched into "taking the guns!" With Vinehout, that argument is a non-starter. In addition, though she is in state government currently, she is still seen as an "outsider," especially because she is not from an urban area and is still very grounded in her background. This is where the urban/rural divide is important. Greater Wisconsin absolutely detests anyone seen as Madisonian. Milwaukee is almost as bad, but still better than a bureaucrat.

This is where Vinehout shines. Of the remaining candidates, she has experience in government, but not the sort that makes her seem like an insider or bureaucrat.

Evers did well in state-wide elections for a very specific role where one wants a very experienced individual. Greater Wisconsin voters are going to be /pissed/ that he decided to jump in partisan politics and they're going to distrust him because he is an experienced bureaucrat. While he may not be from Madison, his lack of connections and ties outside of the more urban areas make it seem like he is just another Madison politicker. He will do well in Madison and Milwaukee, but as Walker's most recent election show, that alone isn't enough, and with Trump stirring up animosity against "the swamp," aka "the establishment," I think Walker will just very narrowly beat Evers.

Mitchell, who I love, if it weren't for voter ID scaring away voters, could possibly turn out enough folks in Milwaukee and Madison to counter the rest of the state, but with voter ID being the way it is, and Trump feeding racists all kinds of cookies, he just won't be able to get enough votes to counter Walker. Racism does him in and it sucks because he's actually who I'd most want in the role.

McCabe, like Vinehout, does have rural appeal, but I just don't think he has enough name recognition or experience to grab the attention of voters. He could do okay, but I honestly can't see him taking the primary over Mitchell or Evers even with a smaller group of candidates.

Anyway, the rural/urban divide is why I think Vinehout is uniquely situated to counter Walker. She appeals to the rural parts of the state and could garner independent votes, or at least votes of moderate folks who are tired of Walker moreso than the other options.

In addition, though she can connect with rural voters, she has the progressive bonafides to appeal to urban voters, too. She also has name recognition because she has sponsored bills that folks in Madison like. I'm not as sure about how she would do in Milwaukee, but I don't see her doing much worse than Evers there against Walker.

Anyway, it all comes down to who can actually challenge Walker, and while I like Evers and love Mitchell, I don't think either of them can be a guaranteed win against Walker. Vinehout is the only one, in my opinion, with enough appeal to the very different sets of voters in the state to actually counter Walker. The only other way to knock him out would be a state-level equivalent of Obama, and there just seems to be a dearth of charismatic Democratic candidates in Wisconsin.

All that said, with how primaries work and his name recognition, I'm pretty sure Evers has the nomination in the bag. I feel a race between him and Walker would be very, very close and he could squeak out a win, but it makes me very uncomfortable and nervous. I would feel much more secure with Vinehout.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2018, 01:14:36 PM »

On a second note I suspect Evers will win by at least a 25% margin.

In regards to the primary, I absolutely agree with you.

I think people underrestimate Walker's vulnerability for this election. I don't think Vinehout has a chance against Walker. I was going to vote for McCabe, but Evers seems more experienced and knowledgeable, so I think I'll be voting for him. I dom't umderstand why prople still think Walker has a good chance of winning, even after a Democrat won a statewide race recently and two senate seats have been flipped in heavy Trump districts.

I disagree. Take a look at his approvals in the recent Marquette poll, especially compared to Tammy Baldwin's approvals. He's sitting at 47% approval. Tammy is at 41%. He still has very strong support with those who are dedicated to turning out to vote.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2018, 05:54:11 PM »

And I disagree with you. The Marquette Poll also indicates that Evers is leading Walker by a small margin. I rest my case: Walker is more vulnerable than he was in the previous three elections, and Tammy Baldwin IS leading.

Um, no, it didn't. Tammy is leading, but Marquette did not show that for Walker.

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https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/08/01/polls-scott-walker-faces-tougher-re-election-path-than-tammy-baldwin/874434002/


You can disagree all you want, but you haven't provided anything to back up your argument, and you straight-up were incorrect in your claim about Evers just now. The article I linked does mention other polls that show Evers leading, but I trust Marquette most in regards to Wisconsin and it did not show Evers leading.

I also believe Tammy's approval ratings (the 41%) more appropriately reflect feelings on Democrats that will affect the governor's race than her reelection poll results, mostly because she has the benefit of being an incumbent, as does Walker.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 10:58:13 PM »

Glad to see Mahlon Mitchell in second thus far, as he was my other personal favorite. Wish Vinehout could have done better, but she came in about where I expected. I'm not excited about Evers, but I'll be supporting him.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2018, 08:58:30 PM »

Rain has started again, and it's been going for hours. Many areas near the lakes will be forced to evacuate soon.

And heavy rain in other areas, too. La Crosse county saw 11 inches today, the Baraboo River in Sauk County is set to rise 10 ft!!! by Thursday/Friday due to all the rain, Green County is also now seeing flooding, and there are more storms yet to come. It's terrifying and I hope people can stay safe.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 08:31:14 PM »

As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.
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Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2018, 12:05:17 AM »

Marist has Evers winning by 9 in the Southwest and by 2 in the North.

The southwest is way less worrisome to me than central and northern WI. As you indicated, the polls are much closer there. As per usual, it will come down to turn out, but the awfulness of the last four years and the 2016 election has me all nervous. If Feingold hadn't been defeated the way he was, plus a few other things that I've seen anecdotally, I'd just be a lot less worried. I'm so hoping to be proven wrong, but yes, this one poll has me freaking out, mostly because it is Marquette.

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Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2018, 12:10:03 PM »

I guess there really are lots of Walker-Baldwin voters afrer all. This article explains why the governor's race between Walker and Evers is so close compared to the U.S. Senate race between Baldwin and Vukmir: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/with-wisconsin-voters-split-on-governor-tammy-baldwin-enjoys-commanding/article_dbd4b577-1e00-5f47-947f-f7fef3692e17.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Come on, Wisconsin! PLEASE get rid of Walker.
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Sigh. Just like I've said. I'm still so upset that Vinehout didn't win; We'd be seeing a very different race. But no use crying over spilt milk.
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Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2018, 12:24:25 PM »

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.
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Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2018, 01:55:50 PM »

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

Not everything is about fundraising, as this race is showing. But I'm getting pretty used to people here not being willing to acknowledge to importance of rural areas and their preferences.

It's one thing if she raised less than the others, but still raised an OK amount. Raising a mere few thousand dollars is absolutely pathetic though. That wouldn't even be good enough for a county commissioner election, nevermind a statewide election!

Okay, seriously, also not sure where this "few thousand dollars" thing is coming from. As of July 17 this year, she had raised $89k. While not the six figures of some of the other campaigns, it was certainly more than a "few thousand," and she actually managed to take some counties and got better results than those who outspent her. So, yeah, money is important, but again, it's not everything, and I think if Madisonians had been more willing to compromise instead of going for Evers/Roys, she would have been the best candidate. But again, spilt milk at this point. Just had to correct that ridiculous phrase that was being thrown around.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2018, 04:31:52 AM »

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking. I'm more than pleased to see how Baldwin is polling and am glad I was wrong to worry about her back in August.

My comments about rural Wisconsin are more focused on Walker specifically and Evers and how they both affect the various voter blocks. There has been constant "surprise" about Walker's continued victories amongst urban Dems specifically, and that's particularly where I see them being oblivious. Obviously Wisconsin is a very purple state; I just think Evers isn't the best candidate to speak to the whole state and rural votes obviously count, too.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2018, 12:57:03 PM »

Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking.

No, you're fine. I was talking about hofoid, who claimed that Wisconsin is the next Arkansas.

That's what I thought, but I had to check. Yay, anxiety. Thanks!
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2018, 02:00:06 PM »

Just want to say that I've been helping out at City Hall with early voting, and it has been crazy busy. We may meet or exceed the number of early votes here in my town compared to 2016. It'll be very interesting to see what the total turnout ends up being when all is said and done. Luckily, I get to work election night so I'll likely get to see the turnout numbers then.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2018, 12:28:50 AM »

Will the WOW counties turn out as heavily for Walker like they did 4 years ago?

Maybe not as heavily, but still quite a bit. The thing is Dane and MKE are also fired up (beyond 2016 levels even), and Western WI won't go for Walker in the same way this time around.
Yep.

Madison is preparing for a 75% turnout. Early voting has been crazy.
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Koharu
jphp
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Posts: 2,644
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2018, 11:55:37 PM »

Just got home from working in the election... If I understand correctly, my area of Dane won't be reporting until early tomorrow morning due to the complete insanity that was this election. The city clerk had been up since 3 am and was still working.

At my polling place, we registered 195 new voters, with 125 of those being after 2pm. I am done in and can't even work up the energy to look at results right now.

Also, dear God if you can spare a day to get paid by your local municipality, please sign up to be an election worker. There aren't enough and most of them are retired folks.
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2018, 11:11:46 AM »


100%.

I'm pretty sure Evers will be fine. I am curious about how the Kaul/Schimel thing will turn out. It is close enough that there could be a recount, yes?
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Koharu
jphp
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.35

« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2018, 11:30:05 PM »

It's best to think of Wisconsin "towns" as townships. Basically, the city of Verona exists inside Verona town(ship). City of Madison has annexed all the available nearby town space and can grow no more once they finish annexing what remains of the town of Madison. Fitchburg was a town, but they made the entire "town" into a city so that Madison couldn't continue annexing it. Cities and villages are set municipalities, whereas towns can be annexed. I really wish they should call them townships instead because town has its own, different connotation, but so it goes.
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