Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[mcmikk]

Lol this probably doesn't help Walker much, though I'd wager Foxconn wouldn't have really made a difference in the first place. But still, this sort of undermines his whole pitch.

Also, on a semi-unrelated note, Tony Evers released an internal poll conducted by PPP that has him leading Walker 49-45 in a general election matchup.

Evers also has a +22 favorability rating, compared to Walker's -2.

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https://www.scribd.com/document/379973946/WI-Gov-PPP-for-Tony-Evers-May-2018

[mcmikk]

Seriously? No remarks on the poll? Seems like I kill threads whenever I post in them, lol.

[mcmikk]

https://wtop.com/government/2018/05/in-wisconsin-do-too-many-democrats-want-to-be-governor/

Democratic voters don't really care who the nominee is, they just want some of these guys who have no chance at winning to drop out of the race. Seriously, it's kind of laughable that there's still 15 candidates running, thinking that they have a chance at winning. Must be hell of an ego trip.

[mcmikk]

Lol

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1002182904087285761

[mcmikk]

I think it's hilarious that they think they can still win with this strategy. They really think they can stave off a wave and stay in power just by appealing to their hardcore base voters and hope that liberals for some reason don't turn out.

I think Walker should spend his whole campaign crapping on Madison. No way that could possibly backfire in any way.

[mcmikk]

Lol

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1002570217816543232

[mcmikk]

Gronik is having a bad day.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1002698905463742465?s=21

[mcmikk]

Though I'd prefer Evers, this is far from an "own-goal". These straw polls are usually unrepresentative of the primary electorate as a whole, in which Evers still has a decent lead. But even if Roys ends up winning the nomination, she'd probably beat Walker just the same, as would most of the Democratic field. However, she would probably do worse in rural areas and small towns than Evers would, and she doesn't have a record of winning statewide, hence why I prefer Evers.

[mcmikk]

Isn't Roys a loony toon who is a perennial candidate

No, not really. She's a fairly competent and well-organized resistance mommy from what I'm seeing. She's a former State Rep, and I think she ran in WI-01 D primary against Pocan in 2012.

[mcmikk]

Isn't Roys a loony toon who is a perennial candidate

No, not really. She's a fairly competent and well-organized resistance mommy from what I'm seeing. She's a former State Rep, and I think she ran in WI-01 D primary against Pocan in 2012.

That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen

True, lol. I think she could still win a general election though. She would do pretty well in Dane County(full of white #resistance types) and as long as she doesn't totally implode in rural areas she can beat Scott Walker with that alone.

[mcmikk]

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1003728493279051776

[mcmikk]

Lol, Walker is criticizing Evers for saying "goddamn" in his convention speech. This guy really is a slimeball who will say and do anything to get reelected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/04/scott-walker-calls-opponent-pathetic-saying-he-goddamn-sick-and-tired-walker-policies/668865002/

[mcmikk]

Kelda Roys wins the Wispolitcs Democratic Party Convention Straw Poll

Results:

Ballots cast: 800

– Governor

Total votes: 789

Kelda Roys: 184
Mahlon Mitchell: 93
Tony Evers: 91
Andy Gronik: 89
Dana Wachs: 89
Kathleen Vinehout: 83
Mike McCabe: 81
Matt Flynn: 71
Josh Pade: 7
Paul Soglin: 1 (lol)

— Lieutenant Governor

Total votes: 763

Mandela Barnes: 617
Kurt Kober: 146

— Secretary of State

Total votes: 728

Doug La Follette: 385
Arvina Marie Martin: 343

— State Treasurer

Total votes: 704

Sarah Godlewski: 530
Cynthia Kaump: 109
Dawn Marie Sass: 65

Why did an incumbent like Doug La Follette have such a close vote?

Because he's an elite that doesn't campaign for the job and doesn't think he should have to engage in a primary for the job.

Well, he's been kind of invincible for the past 10 terms. Granted, he hasn't been winning in landslides, but the GOP failed to take him out in even 2010 and 2014. He probably doesn't think much of the primary challenge.

Not only that, but I doubt the primary is that close in actuality. These votes seem to be skewed to younger, more exciting candidates that appeal more to activists. For example, Roys won the convention straw poll handily, and the third-place Evers still holds a solid lead over the rest of the field in actual polling, and will most likely win the primary. I think the same holds true for LaFollette.

Also, his name is LaFollette, so he has that going for him.

[mcmikk]

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1006936215663374336

Evers briefly unveiled this about 5 days ago to not much fanfare. Thoughts anyone?

[mcmikk]

I swear, if Kelda Roys gets the nomination, Im moving WI to safe R.

Also, those fundraising numbers are scattered between, like, 10 candidates. After the primary, funding should be directed at the nominee(hopefully Evers or Mitchell)

I think she still beats Walker, but by a much narrower margin than Evers would.

Also, iirc the DGA has already accounted for this clown car primary and has reserved a large amount of funds for whoever the nominee ends up being.

[mcmikk]

Pocan endorses Mandela Barnes for Lt. Gov

https://twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1019076421828927488

[mcmikk]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1022471072942313472

Interesting to see the divide. Which one is more progressive overall? Are there major differences between the candidates' platforms?

No, it's more about identity and certain niches that they all fill. Roys comes off as a #Resistance mommy white woman candidate, with little other specialized appeal. Mitchell is a young, charismatic African-American, but he's also the leader of a firefighter's union. He's probably my 2nd-favorite candidate in the primary.

That said, I doubt these endorsements will do much. They will in all likelihood fail to get about 6% and Evers should dispatch with them easily.

[mcmikk]

BREAKING: One of the moronic prognosticators FINALLY moved this race out of Lean R.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/2018_elections_governor_map.html

Of course, it was never Lean R to begin with, but it's nice to see at least one """expert""" understand that.

[mcmikk]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/walker-wisconsin-education-unions-751243

Looks like this race is starting to get a little more attention.

[mcmikk]

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

Evers is largely running a public meeting/ad style campaign in the big areas. Is his precense more pronounced elsewhere in the state? I imagine he's big in Western and Northern WI.

Seems to make sense to me, at least anecdotally. I drive through the Madison metro area often, and I haven't seen a single Evers sign. The most common from my experience are Vinehout and McCabe, along with some for Mitchell, and I've only seen 1 for Roys. Haven't seen any signs for anyone else.

Evers also just generally seems like a better fit for rural communities. He's performed well in them in past elections and he can connect well with places that have struggled with education(funding and etc).

[mcmikk]

So, assuming Evers gets the nom, what does turnout look like in a hypothetical campaign where he pays minimal attention to Milwaukee/Madison? I'd guess Democrats are energized enough to turn out there anyway but is there any risk to not focusing campaign efforts there?

Dane is fine, they always turnout. But Milwaukee is a problem. They have constantly had low turnout compared to the rest of the state, which is a big reason why the state was lost in 2016. A good campaign would focus on Milwaukee and the rurals of the state, ignoring Dane and WOW.

Agree with this pretty much, though prioritize rurals over Milwaukee. Milwaukee isn't super reliable for turnout, and Dems don't need huge numbers in Milwaukee to win if they get good margins in Dane and do well in rural areas.

I don't think Dane should be ignored entirely though, it's still good for people there to at least know who you are and pad the margin a little bit.

[mcmikk]

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

There's Evers signs on the west side of Madison. Quite a few in Verona, as well as McCabe.

I actually haven't seen a single Evers sign. I drive around the East Side as well as Monona and Cottage Grove frequently. I've only seen McCabe, Vinehout, Mitchell, and Roys. I also saw a few Baldwin and McCabe signs in rural Dane County.

[mcmikk]

It seems Evers is holding true and focusing his campaign outside of the big cities. Not one Evers lawn sign in either Madison or MKE where I've passed through. I've seen a lot of Roys and Vinehout signs in the cities  however.

There's Evers signs on the west side of Madison. Quite a few in Verona, as well as McCabe.

I actually haven't seen a single Evers sign. I drive around the East Side as well as Monona and Cottage Grove frequently. I've only seen McCabe, Vinehout, Mitchell, and Roys. I also saw a few Baldwin and McCabe signs in rural Dane County.

To be fair, yard signs are a pretty useless indicator. If Sauk County were a representative indicator, Vinehout would be winning close to 80% of the vote.

True.

[mcmikk]

Former Walker cabinet official claims in a new book that Scott Walker and Brad Schimel drove him to the brink of suicide.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027915002114658306

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1027914228420804608

Ouch.

Though, sadly, this book isn't going to make any bit of difference one way or the other in the election.

[mcmikk]

I am quite pleased with pretty much all these results. Primary turnout is an awful indicator of general election results, but it's nice to see Dems outvoting Pubs pretty substantially, and it's nice to see some "experts" FINALLY move this race to Tossup instead of "Titanium R 3 times in 4 years electoral god Walker"