Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Politician]

Everyone expect Evers, Soglin and Vinehout needs to drop out so the Democrats can unite behind one candidate, otherwise they'll have a brutal primary that will help Walker get a third term.

[Politician]

Barrett out.

👋🏻 bye 👋🏻

[Politician]

With Tom Barrett out I am completely fine keeping WI-Gov as Lean R D now.

Fixed it.

[Politician]

Lol

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1002182904087285761

LMAO'd at some of those.

The constant uses of phrases like "far-left", "Madison", "union boss" and others is comedic gold.

[Politician]

Serious own-goal if this holds in the primary. Tony Evers has a 100% chance of winning the general if he makes it. The others lack that level of certainty.

Rule one of conventions in 2018 - they are an extreme unrepresentative sample of the ideology of the electorate. Remember, Romney lost his convention, but will probably win the primary by 70%.

Exactly. Mostly radicals and ideologues show up at conventions. Not representative of the primary electorate at all.

Also, Wisconsin isn't Safe D. It's Lean D, the Democrats have an edge but Walker could easily win.

[Politician]

Watching Limo and Hofoid cream each other over this poll is golden.

[Politician]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1034460604461928448

Reminder: Suffolk polls have been pretty pro-GOP this cycle (at least relative to the average), Walz +5 in MN, Heller +1 in NV, tied gubernatorial race in Maine.

If it shows Walker up, brace yourselves for Hofoid's chicken choking fest.

[Politician]

Prediction:

Baldwin +5 (cue Atlas panic)
Evers +1

[Politician]

Guessing Evers +3. Evers is going to win, even LOLfoid has stopped trolling about this race?

[Politician]

Baldwin will probably win by over 20 points at this rate. I am thinking that will be more than enough to push Bryce, Engebretson, and Liegeois over the top. Wisconsin will probably have a 6-2 Democratic delegation after this years elections.

What about Dan Kohl in WI-06? I'd say he's far more likely to win then Engebretson or Liegeois.

[Politician]

I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.

[Politician]

According to Jay Schroeder, the Republican who lost the Secretary of State race, a "State Electoral College" is on the cards, too, because Madison and Milwaukee "voted" for the rest of the state this time. It's on his Facebook page.

That screams completely unconstitutional.

Yep.

lol

[Politician]

Democratic Party of WI chair Martha Laning won’t seek re-election.  Vice Chairman David Bowen, Kelda Roys, and Randy Bryce considering running.  Election in June 2019 at party convention.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-democratic-party-chairwoman-won-t-run-again-for-post/article_741d4bd9-082d-5db2-af54-bcde63cb1936.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

The Iron Deadbeat Jailbird becoming the Wisconsin Democratic Party chair will ensure Trump wins the state again.

[Politician]

Conservatives are making a late outside spending push for Hagedorn for the last week. Prior to this he had been outspent 14-1 by outside spending. I would not be shocked if internal polling looked really bad. Things have not been going his way:

- He’s endured months of negative headlines over his extreme anti-gay views.
- He lost an endorsement from the Wisconsin Realtors, a powerful group that typically supports     conservatives like him, because of his hatred toward LGBT people.
- He’s gotten outraised by Neubauer.
- Ninety-eight percent of Wisconsin judges who’ve endorsed in this race have backed Neubauer.
- Outside groups had favored Neubauer in their spending by a 14-to-1 ratio.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1110567415484538880

Also I saw yesterday that the largest contributor to Hagedorn's campaign has been the WIGOP.

I think Neubauer wins by 5. Hagedorn is a garbage candidate and Democratic enthusiasm in Wisconsin seems to be higher than Republican enthusiasm.

[Politician]

Conservatives are making a late outside spending push for Hagedorn for the last week. Prior to this he had been outspent 14-1 by outside spending. I would not be shocked if internal polling looked really bad. Things have not been going his way:

If polling really looked that bad wouldn't conservative write the race off and not invest anything? Easy to argue that the late push after not investing before then means outside group saw some positive signs in polling they didn't see before.

Writing off the race would essentially mean writing off the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which would be too big of a loss.

Neubauer HAS to win. Not only is this election a crucial path to Democratic control over the SC, but any judge who doesn't see the dangers of conversion therapy should REALLY be defeated!

Doesn't seem to be looking as good as it did last year for the GOP. Last year had a credible opponent, this year you have someone who's bringing out the Christian Taliban in force and it's rubbing a lot of people the wrong way.

But haven't Republicans been performing much better in specials post-2018 than they were pre-2018?

[Politician]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

If by best your mean biggest union-buster and voter-suppressor, then yes.

[Politician]

In fact the biggest % gainers for registered voters between April of last year and April of this year were predominately Democratic counties, with a couple swing counties. The statewide increase was 12% and here are the counties that matched that or were larger:

19%   MILWAUKEE COUNTY
16%   DANE COUNTY
14%   LA CROSSE COUNTY
14%   EAU CLAIRE COUNTY
13%   BROWN COUNTY
13%   MENOMINEE COUNTY
12%   KENOSHA COUNTY
12%   DUNN COUNTY

But Atlas told me the population trends in Wisconsin were horrible for Democrats.

Anyway, this is Neubauer's race to lose at this point, but I still don't believe she wins by double digits.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1113196504422977537

Is that enough to win?

[Politician]

Yeah these are those Milwaukee County absentees we were promised for when polls closed, for the most part (I think). All this is Milwaukee Co vote.

Is this good enough?

[Politician]

Does WI ave a democratic counting bias?

[Politician]

Neubauer is winning in Vernon County (Trump +5 WWC county)

[Politician]

Neubauer only up 3.5 with only 50% in. Ugh.

How much was Evers up by at this point?