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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OR-GOV Cloud Research (R): Brown +1
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Author Topic: OR-GOV Cloud Research (R): Brown +1  (Read 718 times)
Scottholes 2.0
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« on: September 25, 2018, 05:44:20 pm »

Kate Brown (D): 42
Knute Buehler (R): 41

https://portlandtribune.com/pt/9-news/407275-306056-poll-says-governors-race-a-squeaker
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 05:46:40 pm »

Likely D. This is a Republican internal, so Brown should be ahead by 5-6.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 05:46:42 pm »

LOL Likely D
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Bernie 2020
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 05:47:24 pm »

It's probably somewhere between this and that public broadcasting poll we saw, Brown will by around 5 points because that's just how things go, for whatever reason (partisan bent and all of that) it's rare for gubernatorial elections in Oregon to be a landslide, but they are consistently won by the dems, albeit sometimes by the narrowest of margins.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 05:54:12 pm »

Fool's gold.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 06:48:10 pm »

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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 06:48:53 pm »

Wenzel Strategies strikes again.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 06:52:36 pm »

Their last poll was 43-42 Buehler, so Brown's position has improved by 2 points in this poll.

Not that this poll is believable at all. Safe D. No way a Republican is winning Oregon in a Democratic wave environment.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 08:39:57 pm »

Clickbait... Wink

Actually, I looked at the Portland Tribune link at the top of the post, and was pleasantly surprised to see they provided an historical context about the polling rating of the firm, etc....
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 08:42:31 pm »

Fool's gold.

This guy gets it.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2018, 08:55:09 pm »

lol sure
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2018, 01:12:17 am »

This poll is obvious junk. But the Oregon GOP probably nominated the right candidate in the wrong year. They went with severely conservative Republicans in 2010/2014 when they actually had a chance, then chose a moderate in a Dem wave year, lol. Buehler probably would've won in 2010 or 2014. Just look at how liberal RINO Knute is. He even brags about it in his ads! He's like the Republican version of Kyrsten Sinema.

https://youtu.be/X69FmMwlVNE
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2018, 01:26:11 am »

LOL, a sleeper race? Doubt this poll gets it right. Brown should win, even if this was a Clinton midterm.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2018, 01:33:14 am »

This poll is obvious junk. But the Oregon GOP probably nominated the right candidate in the wrong year. They went with severely conservative Republicans in 2010/2014 when they actually had a chance, then chose a moderate in a Dem wave year, lol. Buehler probably would've won in 2010 or 2014. Just look at how liberal RINO Knute is. He even brags about it in his ads! He's like the Republican version of Kyrsten Sinema.

https://youtu.be/X69FmMwlVNE

Good Point 'Spear....

Way I see it, is that he will maintain Trump level support in parts of Downstate Oregon (Eastern and Rural/Small-Town Southern Oregon), with some possible expansions in the Rogue River Valley (Grants Pass > Medford > Ashland corridor), and possibly parts of Deschutes County....

Metro PDX--- Clackamas County might well flip, but it's not looking we are seeing the numbers in the potentially "swingier" parts of Suburban PDX...

Mid-Valley I suspect will be relatively static since Trump already maxed out the rural and small-town precincts, and plus "running against Salem" in many parts of CD-05 doesn't play so well...

Plus he's a 'Pub Gov in Oregon running at a time where a Rep Pres Fav numbers are scrapping gutter, and OR-NAVs are a key part of that equation....

Maybe he should have run as an IND, LBT or GRN Huh?

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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2018, 04:05:57 am »

Butler can win
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2018, 08:44:12 pm »

Butler can win

This Butler?   Wink

https://www.oregonbusiness.com/article/item/15778-the-war-room
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2018, 08:45:27 pm »

Bueler.
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matthew27
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2018, 08:46:44 pm »

Add a 0 to that
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2018, 09:05:35 pm »

Bueler.

There you go again.... thought you were being clever to the point I was looking at who is Butler and what race are they contesting in Oregon, and found who I thought you were talking about, who is a "Master Genius" in Democratic Candidate circles in Oregon.... Sad

In theory Buehler could win hypothetically, but I haven't seen any real evidence to indicate this is at all likely now that we have more data.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2018, 09:09:49 pm »

Upsets
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Ishan
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2018, 03:30:26 pm »

Junk

A Real Poll

Brown 48%
Bucher 45%
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cvparty
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2018, 03:39:15 pm »

Add a 0 to that
+01 ?
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