2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Gass3268]

Looks like we are going to get a NBC-Marist Poll out of MN at 5pm.

[ON Progressive]

Everyone want a good laugh?

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1050097135624978432?s=21

How is McLaughlin still in business LMAO

[Brittain33]

Why was my beautiful thread merged in here if the other one wasn't? It is too beautiful to be lost and quickly buried in this megathread.

Which other one needs to be merged? I found two "New Poll Shows Dems in Disarray" threads and put them in here too, but I may have missed others because they were broader. Also, I almost merged one of Virginia's threads but that would have been weird.

[Brittain33]

Oh man, Virginia and I are moderating this group in different directions this afternoon

[Politician]

Everyone want a good laugh?

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1050097135624978432?s=21

McLaughlin, indeed.

Wasn't this the same poll that had Hawley up by 8?

Interesting how Atlas believes a junk pollster when it gives them a "believable" result.

Of course, this is obviously Likely D, and Comstock's way of saying "Don't triage me".

[Beet]

Unlike some here, I take all polls equally. I don't have a "this is what it should be" bias.

[Ebsy]

Oh come on, McLaughlin was doing polls during 2016 that showed Trump winning New York State! They are not to be taken seriously.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unlike some here, I take all polls equally. I don't have a "this is what it should be" bias.

I generally agree and suggest just tossing them in the averages.  However, McLaughlin has such a horrible track record that I make an exception and automatically discount them.

[Virginiá]

Oh man, Virginia and I are moderating this group in different directions this afternoon

lmbo, maybe it would be more in sync if we worked in the Official Washington DC Offices of Atlas Forum (c). I remember you merged a thread I had split off from one of the megathreads for being an off-topic conversation that was bugging some people. I should have labeled the first post / title properly.

It happens!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why was my beautiful thread merged in here if the other one wasn't? It is too beautiful to be lost and quickly buried in this megathread.

Which other one needs to be merged? I found two "New Poll Shows Dems in Disarray" threads and put them in here too, but I may have missed others because they were broader. Also, I almost merged one of Virginia's threads but that would have been weird.

The other one was the one about the "wave turning into a trickle."

Mine was a parody/reversal of that. That one was allowed to get to 6 pages on its own, whereas mine was instantly merged before it could bloom. It took a lot of time effort to write - as noted, more time than it takes to conduct an FBI investigation into sexual assault allegations against SCOTUS nominees.

And if anything, mine was MUCH MUCH more substantive. I used a bunch of graphs and everything. The post is already buried in this thread, which means that many readers will not see it - and that is, frankly, a crime against humanity.

So I would request that my post be allowed to live its life and bloom like a beautiful flower, like the other thread was allowed to for many days.

[2016]

Just a week or two ago, amidst the height of the Kavanaugh/Ford hearings, chances of Republicans holding the House seemed to be increasing dramatically. The generic ballot had the Dem lead shrinking, down to the point where Republican Gerrymanders could maybe hold the House. Lindsay Graham was hailing himself as a hero to all self-respecting angry white males who like beer. People were talking about the Reps holding the House with the help of the gerrymander wall. That big batch of FOX Senate polls had just come out, including the ND-SEN one with Cramer up 53-41 (Oct 2).

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP has gotten what they want - a partisan psychotic hack on the court - and suddenly ... Republican numbers in the GCB are plummeting, starting to drop even below 40, and Democrats are posting more and more double-digit leads. Here are the 7 most recent polls on the 538 GCB (date on the graph is the date the poll ended), plus the most recent Yougov poll that just came out but they haven't entered in yet at the time I am posting this.



If you look at the trend here, it is pretty horrific for the GOP. The thing to notice is not just that the Dems are going up, but the Reps are going down even more quickly, at a shocking pace. The GOP is literally hemorrhaging support, like a GenX drunk hemorrhaging vomit after a hard night of heavy blackout drinking:



If you extrapolate the trend all the way to election day, it looks like this, with Republicans headed towards support of about 17% if current trends continue:



Don't get me wrong. It probably won't be quite that extreme, and the Republicans should eventually hit some sort of minimum floor of support like a wobbly alcoholic preppy falling flat on his face (maybe around 30% or so, the minimum deplorable amount???).

But regardless of if or when they hit a hardwood floor and regardless of whether they break their nose or not in the process of so doing, the implications could be horrific for the Republicans. You do not win elections - even elections rigged by gerrymandering and a tilted Senate map - with 40% (or less) of the vote. Remember, those Senate polls that seemed to be so favorable for the GOP all came out at the height of the Kavanaugh bump (the FOX news Senate polls all ended on Oct 2, the exact day when the charts above begin).

Because if the numbers hold, the Dems will have a commanding majority in the House - possibly even a veto-proof majority - and many of the close races in the Senate will break in favor of the Dems. Republican oil workers in North Dakota will not be allowed to vote because of an accidental Republican own-goal. There will be a historically low amount of ticket splitting, meaning that Republican losses will come up and down the entire ballot, not just in a few high profile races. The wipeout will be uniform and near absolute, with even Republican dog catcher candidates unable to differentiate themselves from Trump amidst a surge of angry female Democrats turning out at near-Presidential levels and voting straight ticket Dem.

It is also clear, that if this trend holds, even if Democrats do not pick up the Senate this year, they will defeat Trump and pick up the Senate in 2020, and then we'll have a Democratic trifecta. Democrats will pick up Governorships and State Legislatures across the nation, block and overturn Republican gerrymanders, and install gerrymanders of their own to lock in a permanent Democratic majority in the House for the rest of the decade. And as old White males increasingly die off and are replaced in the electorate by Millennials and Gen Z, things only get worse for the GOP.

For these voters, indelible in the Hippocampus is the uproarious laughter and the high fives of Republican Senators as they celebrated having rammed Kavanaugh through without conducting a proper FBI investigation, only a sham investigation in which the FBI was not allowed to follow up leads and forced by the White House to turn away tips and witnesses.



In other words, for these voters, this was a traumatizing experience that will stick in their memories permanently. They will remember it in a month when they go to vote. They will also remember it 2 years from now, and 30 years from now as well. Whereas for the Republicans, they got what they wanted and lack the traumatizing experience solidifying their memories. They will have forgotten all about Kavanaugh by the time of election day. Indeed, the nosedive in the polls shows that this process of forgetting is already well underway as the next news cycle attracts their attention.

All across the country, hordes of angry women are awakening each morning with a new sense of purpose. What was formerly confined within the boundaries of New Hampshire is spreading like an unstoppable contagion across the fruited plain, to the tremendous detriment of the Republican party. Republicans face the prospect of losing the women's vote - a majority of voters - by 30 points as in the CNN poll, spurred on by this profound sense of anger, rage, and anguish. I am not sure the Republicans understand what they have unleashed.

These voters are also worried that with Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan. Whereas for Conservatives, they do not particularly care about Ginsburg, because they already have their majority. And Republican base voters are complacent, fooled by Trump's claims that Republicans are sure to hold the house, so they don't think they need to even bother voting.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four Conservatives. Four Liberals and 1 Centrist. Which is what we HAD until - well, until booze bag got confirmed.

I make this Declaration: Democrats will not defeat Trump if they nominate someone from the Northeast (Gillibrand, Warren, Booker) or West (Harris).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

[Politician]

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Thanks GOP criminals!

[Classic Conservative]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

[Ebsy]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

lol Elway

[jamestroll]

Democrats lead by a sizable 57% to 35% margin among likely voters in Illinois on a question asking voters whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their local House race. 

[Oryxslayer]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Gotta love me some partisan polls.

[Ebsy]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

lol Elway

Actually, after a cursory review, I couldn't find a single Elway congressional district poll in rcp.

[KingSweden]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Gotta love me some partisan polls.

Suffice to say I’m extremely skeptical of both of these results

[MAINEiac4434]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

[Xing]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Gotta love me some partisan polls.

Suffice to say I’m extremely skeptical of both of these results

Yeah, both of these are about as believable as Tester being up 24 in MT or Newsom only being up 4 in California.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Every poll should be believed and heard. Rossi and tester are both up by double digits

[JGibson]

IL-12 poll from Global Strategy Group/End Citizens United (10.03-10.07.2018): Bost leads by 1%.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1050124245324484609

[Politician]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Gotta love me some partisan polls.

Suffice to say I’m extremely skeptical of both of these results

Yeah, both of these are about as believable as Tester being up 24 in MT or Newsom only being up 4 in California.

NY-27 is believable, though, if you add 5 to Collins.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

IL-12 poll from Global Strategy Group/End Citizens United (10.03-10.07.2018): Bost leads by 1%.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1050124245324484609

Basically identical to the NYT/Siena poll from a month ago.  I would have expected better from what is essentially a D internal.