2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[IceSpear]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

Please provide a citation for the existence of this poll thing. I want to hear more.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224691.0

Looking back on it, they actually did a decent job at guessing both Iowa and Nevada.

But then they showed Hillary winning the Arkansas Primary by 5 points and the rest is history.

Its actually kind of fun to read some of the posters slowly piece together the fact that the guy running Overtime was just making things up.  

So much nostalgia in that thread. It's hilarious how many people bought into that obvious fake junk even after it was objectively debunked. Atlas gonna Atlas.

[bilaps]

It does have a B+ rating at 538

Doesn't matter really who is up by couple of points right now, the point is it's competitve and it was to be among easiest pickups for Dems. So this district, Curbelo's and Hurd's all going much much better for Republicans than thought off. Draw your conclusion.

I haven't seen much evidence lately that Curbelo is in good shape (I have that seat at Tilt-D right now and it seems to be moving in the Democrats' direction lately), but Hurd definitely looks like he's in the driver's seat (which is odd b/c Jones doesn't seem like a particularly weak candidate nor does Hurd seem to be running a particularly noteworthy campaign; given the results of the recent State Senate special, I kinda wonder if there's some sort of local factors at play in the TX-23 area).  In any case, Shalala will probably win by an embarrassing, but not razor-thin margin.  Something like 54-46% sounds about right.  

Sorry, i meant Valadao and wrote Curbelo

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

Please provide a citation for the existence of this poll thing. I want to hear more.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224691.0

Looking back on it, they actually did a decent job at guessing both Iowa and Nevada.

But then they showed Hillary winning the Arkansas Primary by 5 points and the rest is history.

Its actually kind of fun to read some of the posters slowly piece together the fact that the guy running Overtime was just making things up.  

So much nostalgia in that thread. It's hilarious how many people bought into that obvious fake junk even after it was objectively debunked. Atlas gonna Atlas.

Even funnier is the fact that Dave Liep himself was the person who added one of their polls to the database.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

[OneJ]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Is this his way of begging for more money? Lol.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

The press has got to stop listening to GOP operatives.

[Xing]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

[ON Progressive]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

LMAO. Safe D.

[Yank2133]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

So who will win the Blanche off of 2018? Blum or Comstock? I still have money on Comstock losing by a larger margin.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1050796841720254466

[Yellowhammer]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

So who will win the Blanche off of 2018? Blum or Comstock? I still have money on Comstock losing by a larger margin.

Bruce Rauner, and it probably won't be close.

[Politician]

Rod Blum internal has him TRAILING Abby Finkenauer-

Finkenauer (D): 44%
Blum (R): 43%

https://www.scribd.com/document/390724284/The-Polling-Company-October-2018-IA-01

Funniest part is the summary saying he's within striking distance of her... you typically don't want to have to say that you're "within striking distance" when YOU'RE the incumbent.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But the Kavanuagh bump https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/women-lead-support-investigation-kavanaugh-poll/story%3fid=58461716

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McAdams internal has him leading Love in UT-04 47-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/12/ben-mcadams-camp-says/

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the 538 average, both parties are currently at their highs so far this cycle: D 49.9, R 41.5.  Undecided voters are making up their minds.

[Person Man]

In the 538 average, both parties are currently at their highs so far this cycle: D 49.9, R 41.5.  Undecided voters are making up their minds.

There are probably 6% undecided at this point. 2-3% usually go to the Libertarians.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Carolyn Long internal has her beating Herrera Beutler 45-43% in WA-03

https://twitter.com/solomonout/status/1050857705739497473?s=20

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Does anyone else not care at all about internals from campaigns?

I honestly trust made up polls more than campaign internals

[ON Progressive]

Carolyn Long internal has her beating Herrera Beutler 45-43% in WA-03

https://twitter.com/solomonout/status/1050857705739497473?s=20

Considering the primary turnout, which is actually quite predictive in Washington state, this seems fairly reasonable to me.

[Xing]

Carolyn Long internal has her beating Herrera Beutler 45-43% in WA-03

https://twitter.com/solomonout/status/1050857705739497473?s=20

It's an internal, so I'm not getting my hopes up too much, but this has definitely been an underrated pick-up opportunity, and I think it's more likely to flip than WA-05 (though WA-08 is obviously the most likely.)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Carolyn Long internal has her beating Herrera Beutler 45-43% in WA-03

https://twitter.com/solomonout/status/1050857705739497473?s=20

Internal from Lake Research

https://www.opb.org/news/article/jaime-herrera-beutler-carolyn-long-washington-congress-poll/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something interesting: a GCB poll that also asked about strength of support.

Democracy Corps (D), Sep 9-23, 1000 RV including 700 LV

RV:

D: 49 (strongly supporting 33)
R: 42 (strongly 27)

LV:

D: 51 (strongly 38)
R: 42 (strongly 31)

[Ebsy]

Lake Research has a spotty record to say the least.

[Virginiá]

Something interesting: a GCB poll that also asked about strength of support.

Democracy Corps (D), Sep 9-23, 1000 RV including 700 LV

RV:

D: 49 (strongly supporting 33)
R: 42 (strongly 27)

LV:

D: 51 (strongly 38)
R: 42 (strongly 31)

According to Huff Pollster, in 2016, Democracy Corps nailed the actual House popular vote margin with their last poll (Oct 21 - 24). I hope they do another poll in the final couple weeks.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A poll of a Missouri stare senate race in the 22nd district (which covers almost all of Jefferson county) has Claire up 3 over Hawley. Which would be consistent with the CNN poll having Claire up 3+ https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bc1da8e652deab94f127930/1539431056356/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+-+Senate+22+-+10.13.18.pdf