2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130688 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #575 on: October 03, 2018, 07:48:46 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 03, 2018, 07:41:13 AM


Makes sense. DCCC just started airing $$$ there
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #576 on: October 03, 2018, 08:01:46 AM »
PA-10 GCB: R+1 (47-46)

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #577 on: October 03, 2018, 08:08:47 AM »

How does that compare?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #578 on: October 03, 2018, 08:14:39 AM »
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IceSpear
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« Reply #579 on: October 03, 2018, 09:04:30 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 03, 2018, 07:41:13 AM


This one has always been an underrated opportunity for the Dems. A bunch of the "experts" still have it at "Likely R", lol.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #580 on: October 03, 2018, 09:50:10 AM »
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #581 on: October 03, 2018, 09:53:28 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 03, 2018, 09:50:10 AM


Yikes!

This District voted for Romney by more than Romney won statewide!!!!!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #582 on: October 03, 2018, 10:07:03 AM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #583 on: October 03, 2018, 10:07:40 AM »
It makes sense why that was moved back to Toss Up, probably should have never been moved in the first place.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #584 on: October 03, 2018, 10:56:18 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2018, 10:07:03 AM


I was right.
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hofoid
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« Reply #585 on: October 03, 2018, 11:19:07 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2018, 10:07:03 AM

#FitzpatrickAt50

Considering Wallace is pro-BDS and unions have thrown in with Fitzpatrick, this isn't shocking in the least. Looks like the Blue Wave is receding (...and before anyone accuses me of concern trolling, Monmouth is reliable and I don't think I'm exaggerating here).
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Zaybay
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« Reply #586 on: October 03, 2018, 11:22:20 AM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 03, 2018, 11:19:07 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2018, 10:07:03 AM

#FitzpatrickAt50

Considering Wallace is pro-BDS and unions have thrown in with Fitzpatrick, this isn't shocking in the least. Looks like the Blue Wave is receding (...and before anyone accuses me of concern trolling, Monmouth is reliable and I don't think I'm exaggerating here).

I accuse you of concern trolling
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #587 on: October 03, 2018, 11:24:53 AM »
Quote from: Zaybay on October 03, 2018, 11:22:20 AM
Quote from: hofoid on October 03, 2018, 11:19:07 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2018, 10:07:03 AM

#FitzpatrickAt50

Considering Wallace is pro-BDS and unions have thrown in with Fitzpatrick, this isn't shocking in the least. Looks like the Blue Wave is receding (...and before anyone accuses me of concern trolling, Monmouth is reliable and I don't think I'm exaggerating here).

I accuse you of concern trolling

Nah, for once his analysis is reasonable (see: broken clock).
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #588 on: October 03, 2018, 11:34:28 AM »
Better the blue wave receeds slightly now than at the end of October.
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hofoid
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« Reply #589 on: October 03, 2018, 11:37:51 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on October 03, 2018, 11:34:28 AM
Better the blue wave receeds slightly now than at the end of October.
Yeah, but what exactly is gonna change from now till the end of October? The economy is fine. The only X-Factor left is a war (favours the GOP) and Kavanaugh being confirmed or not (I'd wager a guess and say that him being confirmed will excite the GOP base in the same way the tax bill did, and him being voted down will have the opposite effect).
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #590 on: October 03, 2018, 11:39:29 AM »
Quote from: hofoid on October 03, 2018, 11:37:51 AM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on October 03, 2018, 11:34:28 AM
Better the blue wave receeds slightly now than at the end of October.
Yeah, but what exactly is gonna change from now till the end of October? The economy is fine. The only X-Factor left is a war (favours the GOP) and Kavanaugh being confirmed or not (I'd wager a guess and say that him being confirmed will excite the GOP base in the same way the tax bill did, and him being voted down will have the opposite effect).

I have no idea, and neither do you. A month is an eternity in politics.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #591 on: October 03, 2018, 11:40:01 AM »
Just because a single poll had shifts within the MOE, doesn’t mean “ThE BlUe WaVE iS ReCeDiNg”
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #592 on: October 03, 2018, 11:42:17 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 11:41:16 AM
The blue wave will probably recede and surge at least ten times before Election Day and we’ll have the same predictable flip outs on here

Yep. I think its time some of us just took a break from the forum and let nature take its course, myself included.
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Person Man
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« Reply #593 on: October 03, 2018, 11:42:56 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 11:41:16 AM
The blue wave will probably recede and surge at least ten times before Election Day and we’ll have the same predictable flip outs on here

It's pretty fun, really. At least this race has been more stable than the one in 2016. There are also fewer fence sitters.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #594 on: October 03, 2018, 12:09:44 PM »
Welcome to yet another episode of "Please Don't Triage Me!", this time featuring KS-03's Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder:

KS-03 (Remington, Yoder internal):
Kevin Yoder (R-inc) 43
Sharice Davids (D) 40

Note that even in this internal, Yoder has 38/42 (-4 net) favourables. LMAO.

610 likely voters, Sept 18-20

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article219362830.html
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #595 on: October 03, 2018, 12:19:02 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 03, 2018, 12:09:44 PM
Welcome to yet another episode of "Please Don't Triage Me!", this time featuring KS-03's Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder:

KS-03 (Remington, Yoder internal):
Kevin Yoder (R-inc) 43
Sharice Davids (D) 40

Note that even in this internal, Yoder has 38/42 (-4 net) favourables. LMAO.

610 likely voters, Sept 18-20

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article219362830.html

Lol.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #596 on: October 03, 2018, 12:24:37 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 11:41:16 AM
The blue wave will probably recede and surge at least ten times before Election Day and we’ll have the same predictable flip outs on here

Actually, one thing that's interesting about polls this year is that they're a lot less swingy than in 2016. In 2016, between late August and early October, polling averages had gone from Hillary being up by double digits to her only leading by 1 or 2, then back to Obama-2008 level margins. This year, by contrast, the generic ballot has only hovered between D+7 and D+9. That's a remarkable stability, even if it does make a difference whether it's 7 or 9 in the end.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #597 on: October 03, 2018, 01:07:59 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 07:49:23 AM
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 03, 2018, 07:41:13 AM


Eugene DePasquale should be kicking himself right now

Not really since he wants to be governor, plus Perry will probably lose anyway; he’s a really weak incumbent IIRC.
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Xing
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« Reply #598 on: October 03, 2018, 02:35:22 PM »
I always thought that PA-10 was Lean R at best for Republicans. It would be weird to see Republicans lose PA-10 while holding PA-01 (I don't think that will happen, though.)
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #599 on: October 03, 2018, 02:42:37 PM »
Marist-

GCB is D+6 with registered voters

GCB is D+9 with those who say the midterms are very important to them so I take that as the Likely Voter sample.

Kavanaugh support is -9 with both RV and LV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810021305.pdf#page=3
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