2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Person Man]

Marist-

GCB is D+6 with registered voters

GCB is D+9 with those who say the midterms are very important to them so I take that as the Likely Voter sample.

Kavanaugh support is -9 with both RV and LV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1810021305.pdf#page=3

That's roughly unchanged since earlier this month...

[Yank2133]

Why haven't they switched to LV screens?

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Pretty much. Democrats are holding steady at 48.

[American2020]

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

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https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

[Hindsight was 2020]

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

What a trolling cherry pick of the poll. Is Hofoid writing for NPR now?

[Florida Man for Crime]

That's roughly unchanged since earlier this month...

Red wave incoming.

[Devout Centrist]

I see everyone is gearing up for the penultimate panic of this year

[ON Progressive]

FL-18 (Global Strategy Group/Baer internal?):
Brian Mast (R-inc) 48
Lauren Baer (D) 45

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-37b1-d20d-a57f-b7b1e4d20000

[GeorgiaModerate]

I see everyone is gearing up for the penultimate panic of this year

Nah, there's at least 3 or 4 more to go before Election Day.

[Person Man]

FL-18 (Global Strategy Group/Baer internal?):
Brian Mast (R-inc) 48
Lauren Baer (D) 45

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-37b1-d20d-a57f-b7b1e4d20000

Sucks for Mast...

[Florida Man for Crime]

A bunch of California House polls should be coming Thursday morning:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidLauter/status/1047575187296804865

[libertpaulian]

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

What a trolling cherry pick of the poll. Is Hofoid writing for NPR now?

So you deny that #MeToo overplaying its hand has led to increased GOP enthusiasm in the past month?

[Virginiá]

I think the real question is that even if there really is any kind of "surge" in GOP enthusiasm and/or support, can that be sustained? I'm skeptical, that's for sure. Remember 2016 in the months leading up to election day, where we went through cycle after cycle of major negative events that would drive up Democratic support in the GCB/presidential polling, only for it to evaporate within 1-2 week(s)? The reason for that is because that election wasn't actually a wave election, and the fundamentals acted like gravity, and this was compounded by Clinton having her own negative news cycles. Unless the election could have happened during the middle of one of those negative news cycles for Republicans, it was always bound to revert to the baseline.

I'd wager the same thing is happening here, except a large Democratic lead is the baseline. Republicans might benefit from short-term events that temporarily improve their polling, but it is destined to recede over the following week(s). And if Kavanaugh is confirmed, Republican voters lose the incentive to stay motivated and Kavanaugh's placement on the court will further enrage Democrats and drive a wedge between the GOP and GOP/Indie-leaning women.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

What a trolling cherry pick of the poll. Is Hofoid writing for NPR now?

So you deny that #MeToo overplaying its hand has led to increased GOP enthusiasm in the past month?

Sure it’s helped some GOP enthusiasm the problem is this poll was D+6 and +9 with a LV model. Those numbers are consistent with the 7-9 point lead D’s have had. So what this says is that whatever help this hearing has had for enthusiasm it hasn’t demoralized dems nor shifted indies in the GOP direction

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, yeah, a few more of these polls and I'll start to get nervous.

[Bidenworth2020]

OK, yeah, a few more of these polls and I'll start to get nervous.

I wouldn't worry too much. It will stop once kav is confirmed (ugh).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)

Lowest lead and it’s still 8% which is consistent with where it’s been throughout the past 2 years

[2016]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

No it doesn’t. Hillary was in a tight race before the Comey letter came out. The midterms haven’t been close polling wise since May

[Yank2133]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

[2016]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

But it will have an effect on the GOP's Support. Confirm Kavernaugh and Republicans will lose between 20-30 Seats, don't confirm and you look at a 60+ Seat gain, maybe even more for the Dems.

[Yank2133]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

But it will have an effect on the GOP's Support. Confirm Kavernaugh and Republicans will lose between 20-30 Seats, don't confirm and you look at a 60+ Seat gain, maybe even more for the Dems.

Yeah, I just don't buy that at all.

[2016]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

How is Kavanaugh even comparable to Clinton?

Comey letter caused Clinton's support to collapse. Kavanaugh confirmation/withdrawal is going to have no effect on Democratic support next month.

But it will have an effect on the GOP's Support. Confirm Kavernaugh and Republicans will lose between 20-30 Seats, don't confirm and you look at a 60+ Seat gain, maybe even more for the Dems.

Yeah, I just don't buy that at all.

Buy it or not buy it. There is already clear evidence that Trumps Supporters will stay home if Kavernaugh isn't confirmed.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1047598574576517121