2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[2016]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

[KingSweden]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

[2016]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Funny thing is this poll is also pushed the “enthusiasm gap” as well but these polls are hardly different from the last batch minus ND. Heck Donnelly is up in this batch

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The risk level for Murkowski is far lower than risk Collins faces. Her write-in victory in 2010 showed the GOP that unless she resigns, she's in that seat for life. So a No vote won't leave a scratch on her.

[Crumpets]

How many of the more/less likely people in that poll are actually undecided voters?

[Yank2133]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

[2016]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

Why? In this case it seems entirely reasonable what he says. Trump Voters are now the backbone of the new Republican Coalition and it shouldn't be too complicated to figure this out for you what happens if a vast Majority of them staying home. The GOP would face an "Alamo" that is even bigger than 1994 was for the Democrats.

[ON Progressive]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

Why? In this case it seems entirely reasonable what he says. Trump Voters are now the backbone of the new Republican Coalition and it shouldn't be too complicated to figure this out for you what happens if a vast Majority of them staying home. The GOP would face an "Alamo" that is even bigger than 1994 was for the Democrats.

Trump voters being the backbone of the GOP coalition? Shocking!

What stunning facts are you going to tell us next, that Hillary voters are the backbone of the Democratic coalition?

[wbrocks67]

Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)

The Dem lead is about +8, which is basically the average its been for a year

[2016]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

Why? In this case it seems entirely reasonable what he says. Trump Voters are now the backbone of the new Republican Coalition and it shouldn't be too complicated to figure this out for you what happens if a vast Majority of them staying home. The GOP would face an "Alamo" that is even bigger than 1994 was for the Democrats.

Trump voters being the backbone of the GOP coalition? Shocking!

What stunning facts are you going to tell us next, that Hillary voters are the backbone of the Democratic coalition?

It's not a stunning fact...IT IS A FACT. All the Republican Senate Candidates depending on Trumps Voters...in some Races more, in some Races less. But of course Progressives like you can't get it into the head.

[Yank2133]

Nuff said...

Look here:



Explains a lot why Republicans pushing so hard getting Kavernaugh confirmed BECAUSE it actually will safe the Senate for them.

IOW it could jam Heitkamp but is a wash for the other two

Conservative Contributor Hugh Hewitt thinks GOP will collapse if they don't confirm Kavernaugh see here

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/1047611960840396800

....AND I'm actually thinking among the same lines as he is.

Ehhh. I wouldn't trust anything Hugh Hewitt says.

Why? In this case it seems entirely reasonable what he says. Trump Voters are now the backbone of the new Republican Coalition and it shouldn't be too complicated to figure this out for you what happens if a vast Majority of them staying home. The GOP would face an "Alamo" that is even bigger than 1994 was for the Democrats.

Well, Trump voters aren't the "new GOP coalition". In fact, many of them voted for Romney in 2012 and have historically always voted Republican.

Anyway, I just don't buy GOP voters staying home due to Kavanaugh. If he is withdrawn, I think you will see a dip in a couple of polls, but then they will revert back to where they have been for the majority of the year.

[Virginiá]

It's not a stunning fact...IT IS A FACT. All the Republican Senate Candidates depending on Trumps Voters...in some Races more, in some Races less. But of course Progressives like you can't get it into the head.

Trump voters are by and large just Republicans. It's not like Trump shifted the coalitions that much. And the "vast majority" of them aren't going to stay home if Kavanaugh isn't confirmed. I'm sorry, but that sounds like a gross exaggeration. Even if "vast majority" only meant 50%, which it doesn't, that would mean that turnout in this midterm would plummet to the lowest levels in history, and Republicans would probably lose almost every House/Senate seat up this cycle. That has never happened, and for a reason - people don't care about this stuff that much. Pundits and journalists and people in general seriously overrate the influence of the federal judiciary on voters. Most people can't even name a single supreme court justice, and the partisan Republican voters who care about the courts are reliable voters who rarely miss elections, and won't because of this, because even if they ever considered staying home to begin with (doubtful), eventually it's going to dawn on them that staying home will mean even more loss to the courts they so covet.

[2016]

It's not a stunning fact...IT IS A FACT. All the Republican Senate Candidates depending on Trumps Voters...in some Races more, in some Races less. But of course Progressives like you can't get it into the head.

Trump voters are by and large just Republicans. It's not like Trump shifted the coalitions that much. And the "vast majority" of them aren't going to stay home if Kavanaugh isn't confirmed. I'm sorry, but that sounds like a gross exaggeration. Even if "vast majority" only meant 50%, which it doesn't, that would mean that turnout in this midterm would plummet to the lowest levels in history, and Republicans would probably lose almost every House/Senate seat up this cycle. That has never happened, and for a reason - people don't care about this stuff that much. Pundits and journalists and people in general seriously overrate the influence of the federal judiciary on voters. Most people can't even name a single supreme court justice, and the partisan Republican voters who care about the courts are reliable voters who rarely miss elections, and won't because of this, because even if they ever considered staying home to begin with (doubtful), eventually it's going to dawn on them that staying home will mean even more loss to the courts they so covet.

I disagree on that. Even if 5-10% of Trump Voters stayed home in every House or Senate Race Democrats would win 60 Seats in the House instead of only maybe 30-35.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648

Now I am starting to worry. Wasn't this a likely Democratic pickup?

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648

Now I am starting to worry. Wasn't this a likely Democratic pickup?

This is a D seat already. I wouldn't make a big fuss out of it. It's a landline-only internal for Tom's opponent that doesn't even mention what polling company conducted the poll in the first place. Also, 24% undecided a month before the election is comically absurd.

[BundouYMB]

https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648

Now I am starting to worry. Wasn't this a likely Democratic pickup?

5 points:

1). This is already a Dem held district. We picked it up in 2016.

2). This is a Wendy Rogers internal poll.

3). Decimals.

4). The only way they could rig a Rogers lead is by having the candidates in the 30s! LOL!

5). ...Decimals.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harry Enten was just making fun of that poll on Twitter lol.

[CookieDamage]

She posted it on her own twitter... this desperation...

[Devout Centrist]

After a series of bad polls and shocking news from the Senate, the House, the President, and from some other places, things aren't looking good for Democrats. At this time, everything is going downhill...all at once. We all know Democrats are doomed in a month, but there are still a few of you who don't understand this. The numbers are grim, they look worse every day. We just got a poll from the well respected polling firm that polls places and they gave Democrats bad numbers. This is awful, and I don't think it will ever, ever get better.

Meanwhile, news on the ground from some areas is bad. The men are voting for Trump. Women are trending Republican now according to one poll from somewhere. The whole court charade has costed Democrats millions of votes. Wow. Not good.

Elsewhere, some man is tweeting things and they say it's bad news for Democrats. And they called Wisconsin right in 2016. Uh-oh. They were right once, they will probably be right again. In other words, they know our future and it would be bad to ignore them.

The poors have broken for Trump and the Republicans. It just won't work. The middle class in the Midwest is coming home for the Republicans. The numbers are stacked against us everywhere. In Ohio, in Texas, in Michigan, in Missouri. Awful.

So is the blue wave dead? Yes, it's all over. Give up. We're doomed.

[Bidenworth2020]

After a series of bad polls and shocking news from the Senate, the House, the President, and from some other places, things aren't looking good for Democrats. At this time, everything is going downhill...all at once. We all know Democrats are doomed in a month, but there are still a few of you who don't understand this. The numbers are grim, they look worse every day. We just got a poll from the well respected polling firm that polls places and they gave Democrats bad numbers. This is awful, and I don't think it will ever, ever get better.

Meanwhile, news on the ground from some areas is bad. The men are voting for Trump. Women are trending Republican now according to one poll from somewhere. The whole court charade has costed Democrats millions of votes. Wow. Not good.

Elsewhere, some man is tweeting things and they say it's bad news for Democrats. And they called Wisconsin right in 2016. Uh-oh. They were right once, they will probably be right again. In other words, they know our future and it would be bad to ignore them.

The poors have broken for Trump and the Republicans. It just won't work. The middle class in the Midwest is coming home for the Republicans. The numbers are stacked against us everywhere. In Ohio, in Texas, in Michigan, in Missouri. Awful.

So is the blue wave dead? Yes, it's all over. Give up. We're doomed.

send this to every republican you know, pls

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I know it's not a serious post, because I'm the only person who uses "costed" in serious posts.

[Ebsy]

Did they call him "Invisible Tom" while conducting the survey?

[Person Man]

Good luck with using Landlines in Tuscon.