2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Person Man]

So as it appears now, there is no Kavanaugh bump for the GOP in the house.

[Virginiá]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

A Wave is called when D's net 60+ Seats in the House like R's did in 2010 or net 8+ Seats in the Senate like 2014 and I doubt that this is going to happen.

lol that is a pretty restrictive definition of a wave, one that almost no one follows?

D+6 or more in the house popular vote is absolutely a wave in the post-1994 era, where close elections are the norm. Republicans only won the house PV by 6.8% in 2010, yet because more seats are Republican-leaning and because Democrats, after 2 large waves in 2006-2008 picked up a ton of R-leaning seats, that meant Republicans had much more to gain from that popular vote percentage than Democrats do.

Also you can't place a Senate seat quota for a wave like that. Senate maps are completely different, in that there are only around 33 up on any given cycle, meaning that a party can hold almost all t he seats (like Democrats do in this class) and still barely pick up any or even lose some because they already won most of the seats in previous elections. So let's say, for example, Democrats somehow made a net gain of D+4 this cycle. In 2024, again, let's say Democrats win the House popular vote by D+17 - Watergate level. Even with that monster wave that probably nets close to or over 300 seats in the House, they gain almost nothing in the Senate and maybe even lose seats, because the are already maxed out and there are no competitive seats left in that Senate class.

Edit: Just another example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_1974
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1974

Democrats get only D+4 in the Senate elections (almost got another 3-4 seats but missed by a hair), but D+49 in the House elections and hit 291 seats. That was the biggest wave since 1964, and yet they still were limited in Senate gains. But no one would not call this a wave, or at least if they did, they would be horribly wrong.

[Xing]

So as it appears now, there is no Kavanaugh bump for the GOP in the house.

That would make sense, since the House battlegrounds aren't as strongly Republican as (most of) the Senate battlegrounds.

[2016]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

Republicans were favored to keep the Senate before Kav, though. Heidi has been in huge trouble for months now

[BudgieForce]

So as it appears now, there is no Kavanaugh bump for the GOP in the house.

Way too early to be saying that. We need to wait at least a week.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Lmao! Okay Icy, why are you so on edge today?

This reply is strange. I don't see what's funny about it or why you think I'm "on edge." I was just responding to your comment about my batting average with objective facts. Projection I guess?

Okay, let me explain:

I make a gentle jibe about your past predictions. You respond by dumping a list of your correct predictions (some of which haven't even come to pass yet!) as evidence that I'm wrong. That's pretty damn weird, my friend.

Look, my point is you're a smug prick. You have absolutely no humility nor do you seem to understand the concept of reflecting on your past mistakes. The last time you ever expressed any humility was back when Doug Jones won in Alabama, and that was after MONTHS of relentless arrogance and bragging that you would be vindicated in the end. You then wrote an apology...then you didn't change your behavior at all.

I don't know exactly what caused you to become some unhinged lunatic, but it's evidently infected your entire mindset. People respond to loss and defeat in different ways, and I can understand why the events of 2016 would make you take pause when it comes to partisan cheerleading. But this doesn't absolve you of responsibility and it certainly doesn't give you a free pass to be an ego driven maniac.

So yes...projection. Along with a hefty dose of irony. Thanks for clearing it up.

By the way, while we're on the topic of reflecting on past mistakes, how about we address the record of certain people that always delusionally believe Dems will win every remotely competitive (or potentially even non competitive) race? How has that worked out for you guys? Perhaps we can ask Gov-elect David Garcia. Something tells me he'll have a lot of time to answer fan mail after November 6th.

You're proving him right. And lol at DC being even a tenth as egotistical as you.

[twenty42]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

[2016]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

Republicans were favored to keep the Senate before Kav, though. Heidi has been in huge trouble for months now

Maybe you are right on this. Nonetheless a lot of these Senate Races were pretty darn close with O'Rourke TIED or slightly behind Cruz in TX, Bredesen up in TN, etc. McConnell is right when he says McCaskill & Donnelly opposing him will not play well in MO & IN. I expect that to change now. Phil Mattingly said that there more or less two seperate Elections going on.

[BudgieForce]

Can you stop, we have multiple megathread.

[Brittain33]

I merged it...

[KingSweden]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

Disagree, I think the anger over Kav getting sunk by “MeToo” would have had a much more galvanizing effect on the Republicans.

[Yank2133]

Just watching "CNN's Inside Politics" with John King and they are all mostly right. Republicans made a calculated risk by pushing Kavanaugh through. They knew they would lose the House (because of College Educated White Women) but wanted to keep the Senate. Had Kavanaugh Confirmation failed there would have been an even greater than 50% Chance that they would have lost both Chambers.

It is funny how everything Republicans do is seen as sort of magic stroke of political genius. Imagine if Democrats barely pushed through an unpopular nominee, who has been credibly accused of sexually assault. The media wouldn't be spinning it this way.

Everything in politics is always looked through the lens of Republicans. Democrats should never forget that.

[BundouYMB]

https://twitter.com/WCIA3Mark/status/1049304303511453696

https://www.wcia.com/election/ylehq_illinoishomepage/poll-davis-leads-londrigan-49-48/1507143696

Talk about burying the lead... Londrigan is up 4 among likely voters (51-47.)

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He is moving the goal-post.

2016 has even been arguing that Democrats winning the house means nothing. Which shows he doesn't understand how our government works. Anyway, Democrats winning the popular vote by 6+, while also winning 25+ seats and also making significant gains in the gubernatorial races and state legislatures is a wave election.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Yikes, this is horrible news for the Dems. The Kavanaugh bump has now spread to the House. Hard to unskew this.

https://twitter.com/WCIA3Mark/status/1049304303511453696

https://www.wcia.com/election/ylehq_illinoishomepage/poll-davis-leads-londrigan-49-48/1507143696

Talk about burying the lead... Londrigan is up 4 among likely voters (51-47.)

Talk about burying the real lead...it's an internal. Toss it in the trash.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

[Virginiá]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can Twenty42 get his own concern troll thread?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

Virginia, I know you've never agreed on much with me, but you seriously think what DiFi did helped in the Midterms? I want to see the logic in that. The bump for the GOP lately is almost all concentrated in Kavanaugh related anger.

[Hindsight was 2020]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

Virginia, I know you've never agreed on much with me, but you seriously think what DiFi did helped in the Midterms? I want to see the logic in that. The bump for the GOP lately is almost all concentrated in Kavanaugh related anger.

What bump? The only house poll out today is the WaPo one we’re dems are in a 35-45 seat pickup position

[Virginiá]

RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

Virginia, I know you've never agreed on much with me, but you seriously think what DiFi did helped in the Midterms? I want to see the logic in that. The bump for the GOP lately is almost all concentrated in Kavanaugh related anger.

Oh definitely not, I was just making a snarky comment that you're probably being disingenuous.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone show so much "concern" for Democrats, while proclaiming at the end of so many posts that you really want it to go the other way for them. Most people don't feel the need to constantly clarify their positions like that.

[Torie]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Yikes, this is horrible news for the Dems. The Kavanaugh bump has now spread to the House. Hard to unskew this.

https://twitter.com/WCIA3Mark/status/1049304303511453696

https://www.wcia.com/election/ylehq_illinoishomepage/poll-davis-leads-londrigan-49-48/1507143696

Talk about burying the lead... Londrigan is up 4 among likely voters (51-47.)

Talk about burying the real lead...it's an internal. Toss it in the trash.

Horrible news, just horrible. The Dems might has well just give up now.  You really are like a moth to a flame when it comes to Pub spinning polls, aren't you? Sad. If you look at the link you put up, it shows the range of Dem House pickups pretty stable over the past month.  If you want to troll, at least do it with a bit more subtlety and nuance, and yeah, can the hyperbole, which makes infracting you such an easy a decision to make. One upside of doing that from your standpoint, is that it that it might put more stress on Virginia/Brittain in how to process you, since the cases will be closer calls. Make them sweat!  FTR, I am not reporting this, but the odds that this will slip by are low.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Can Twenty42 get his own concern troll thread?

[Stranger in a strange land]

This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House