2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Person Man]

Seems like the flagging Republicans are flooding us with last minute internals in order to convince us that they are not dead yet. Remains to be see if this is true (doubtful).

They're just resting

They should just go into the cart.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

[Gass3268]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

While also at the highest percentage (84.8%) of winning the house.

[KingSweden]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

So even during the Kav slump Democrats we’re doing better than through most of the year

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

While also at the highest percentage (84.8%) of winning the house.

Well, yeah, but a lot of that is driven by fundraising numbers as opposed to polls so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

[Gass3268]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

While also at the highest percentage (84.8%) of winning the house.

Well, yeah, but a lot of that is driven by fundraising numbers as opposed to polls so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Even the polls only model has it at the highest it's been, 77.2%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Update on 538's GCB tracker since last week. Basically, Democrats are back to where they were in the last days of September.

While also at the highest percentage (84.8%) of winning the house.

Well, yeah, but a lot of that is driven by fundraising numbers as opposed to polls so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Even the polls only model has it at the highest it's been, 77.2%.

Not true - it was higher on October 14 as well as every day from September 21 to 30.

Not denying that it's a strong position, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MI-11 Stevens Internal

Stevens (D): 44%
Epstein (R): 34%

It was Stevens +5 in October

https://haleystevensforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/mi-cd-11-track-3-memo.pdf

[Virginiá]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a relative slump in polling for statewide races (gubernatorial/Senate)? Florida is an obvious one I think and the hurricane doesn't help near-term polling prospects either. But I can't help but feel like there should be a lot more polls at this point than there are (for all races). The election is only a few weeks away, after all... This is when polls are most relevant.

[Zaybay]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a relative slump in polling for statewide races (gubernatorial/Senate)? Florida is an obvious one I think and the hurricane doesn't help near-term polling prospects either. But I can't help but feel like there should be a lot more polls at this point than there are (for all races). The election is only a few weeks away, after all... This is when polls are most relevant.

I would agree, polling has been rather bare recently, and we have been stuck with constant Siena polls that are rather dubious in quality.

[Gass3268]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a relative slump in polling for statewide races (gubernatorial/Senate)? Florida is an obvious one I think and the hurricane doesn't help near-term polling prospects either. But I can't help but feel like there should be a lot more polls at this point than there are (for all races). The election is only a few weeks away, after all... This is when polls are most relevant.

I imagine we are in a lull right now until we get a final push at the end of the month.

[Beet]

As I've been saying for a while now, news rooms are dying, especially local news, and polling is a revenue sink, not a revenue source. The Times is different because it's PPV now and in fact they are doing it "live" to max out their clicks. That means more stress for you... and more money for them.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a relative slump in polling for statewide races (gubernatorial/Senate)? Florida is an obvious one I think and the hurricane doesn't help near-term polling prospects either. But I can't help but feel like there should be a lot more polls at this point than there are (for all races). The election is only a few weeks away, after all... This is when polls are most relevant.

I would agree, polling has been rather bare recently, and we have been stuck with constant Siena polls that are rather dubious in quality.

Siena is one of the highest quality pollsters. They're just honest about their weighting.

[wbrocks67]

Statewide polling has been awful. It also doesn't look as of right now as if we're getting any NBC/Marist polls this week, despite it being 3 weeks out.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MI-06 is moving onto the board in a bigger way now. DCCC added it to red-to-blue and DCCC is starting to run TV ads there now, and they have released an internal with the Dem (Longjohn) only down by 3, with name ID being the main apparent issue there.

Although Trump did win here 51-43, Romney only won 50-49 in 2012 and Obama won it 53-45 in 2008. It is only an R+4 district.

This is a race that I think should have been getting more attention previously, but didn't previously only because Upton was considered too much of a "strong incumbent." But Whitmer and Stabenow should both win this district handily in MI-GOV and MI-SEN, and I think that will have some coattails here. The importance of Upton's "candidate quality" is being exaggerated, I think.

I think this is one of those late breaking races that people aren't expecting, and in the end it will be one of those upsets that goes Dem and surprises some people.

[Gass3268]

Muh Kavanaugh Effect

[Bidenworth2020]

MI-06 is moving onto the board in a bigger way now. DCCC added it to red-to-blue and DCCC is starting to run TV ads there now, and they have released an internal with the Dem (Longjohn) only down by 3, with name ID being the main apparent issue there.

Although Trump did win here 51-43, Romney only won 50-49 in 2012 and Obama won it 53-45 in 2008. It is only an R+4 district.

This is a race that I think should have been getting more attention previously, but didn't previously only because Upton was considered too much of a "strong incumbent." But Whitmer and Stabenow should both win this district handily in MI-GOV and MI-SEN, and I think that will have some coattails here. The importance of Upton's "candidate quality" is being exaggerated, I think.

I think this is one of those late breaking races that people aren't expecting, and in the end it will be one of those upsets that goes Dem and surprises some people.

This year is so odd. I see dems barely winning in competitive seats, and barely behind in very conservative seats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Mitch should've kept his mouth shut-

[Hindsight was 2020]

Muh Kavanaugh Effect

Hahahahahahahahahaha

[ON Progressive]

New Hampshire 1st/2nd Districts (Saint Anslem College):

NH-01:
Chris Pappas (D) 44
Eddie Edwards (R) 36

NH-02:
Annie Kuster (D-inc) 49
Steve Negron (R) 22

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/gubernatorial-and-congressional-races-take-shape-latest-poll

[Xing]

New Hampshire 1st/2nd Districts (Saint Anslem College):

NH-01:
Chris Pappas (D) 44
Eddie Edwards (R) 36

NH-02:
Annie Kuster (D-inc) 49
Steve Negron (R) 22

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/gubernatorial-and-congressional-races-take-shape-latest-poll

#KusterUnder50

MTTreasurer will approve of these polls, though.

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire 1st/2nd Districts (Saint Anslem College):

NH-01:
Chris Pappas (D) 44
Eddie Edwards (R) 36

NH-02:
Annie Kuster (D-inc) 49
Steve Negron (R) 22

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/gubernatorial-and-congressional-races-take-shape-latest-poll

Looking like another exciting election night in swing state NH! dae think trump is more likely to win nh and nv than wi and pa in 2020?

[Person Man]

Muh Kavanaugh Effect

Hahahahahahahahahaha

How's that even possible?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Don Young now only has a two-point lead over Alyse Galvin-

Young (R): 49%
Galvin (D): 47%

This is the third (I believe) poll in a row in the past month showing Galvin narrowing the lead. The momentum is clearly on her side and that's terrible news for Young with only 20 days left in the campaign.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1052736683441971201

[TheSaint250]

It would be great to see another independent get elected, especially from Alaska, which has a proud history of such voting.