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Author Topic: MI EPIC-MRA: Whitmer +8  (Read 723 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 27, 2018, 06:42:25 am »

https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/poll-whitmer-still-ahead-in-governor-s-race/1478196720

Whitmer 45
Schuette 37
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2018, 06:44:00 am »

Likely D
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2018, 06:45:10 am »

Other statewides:

SOS - Benson (D) 40, Treader Lang (R) 31
AG - Nessel (D) 38, Leonard (R) 32
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2018, 07:24:03 am »

Lol @ Tom Leonard being the GOP’s saving grace from total destruction.

Also inb4 Bagel declares this Weak Tilt D because Whitmer has a single digit lead
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2018, 07:25:18 am »

Lol @ Tom Leonard being the GOP’s saving grace from total destruction.

Also inb4 Bagel declares this Weak Tilt D because Whitmer has a single digit lead

Schuette is already citing this poll on Twitter saying he's the comeback kid.
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2018, 09:01:24 am »

This race tightens! 55% don't support Whitmer! Trump won the state! Red wave! -> Lean R, closer to Likely R than toss-up.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2018, 09:19:55 am »

This poll was done by the Glengariff group FYI
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2018, 10:22:12 am »

Told you guys it was tightening. We went from upper teens to single digits.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2018, 10:25:27 am »

Told you guys it was tightening. We went from upper teens to single digits.

Uhh this race was NEVER in the upper-teens. Plus, this is a GOP pollster.
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2018, 10:33:11 am »

Told you guys it was tightening. We went from upper teens to single digits.

The fact this is a good poll for Schuette shows that he is DOA.
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2018, 10:34:53 am »

Things get dicey when the Dem is under 50. I'm sure President Hillary Clinton thanks Michigan for those key victories as shown by the polls.
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2018, 10:51:08 am »

Things get dicey when the Dem is under 50. I'm sure President Hillary Clinton thanks Michigan for those key victories as shown by the polls.

Polling average of 2016 in Michigan: Clinton +3.6
Polling average of 2018 in Michigan: Whitmer +10.3

Totally the same. Also, this isn't even a tightening since Whitmer was up 5 in EPIC-MRA's last poll.
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2018, 10:55:28 am »

Things get dicey when the Dem is under 50. I'm sure President Hillary Clinton thanks Michigan for those key victories as shown by the polls.

Polling average of 2016 in Michigan: Clinton +3.6
Polling average of 2018 in Michigan: Whitmer +10.3

Totally the same. Also, this isn't even a tightening since Whitmer was up 5 in EPIC-MRA's last poll.
Well, subtract 4 from the Clinton average and get the actual result...so let's subtract 4 from 10.3...and it gets us 6.3. Still not a double digit victory.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2018, 11:00:29 am »

Things get dicey when the Dem is under 50. I'm sure President Hillary Clinton thanks Michigan for those key victories as shown by the polls.

Polling average of 2016 in Michigan: Clinton +3.6
Polling average of 2018 in Michigan: Whitmer +10.3

Totally the same. Also, this isn't even a tightening since Whitmer was up 5 in EPIC-MRA's last poll.
Well, subtract 4 from the Clinton average and get the actual result...so let's subtract 4 from 10.3...and it gets us 6.3. Still not a double digit victory.

Or add 6 to Whitmer since polls in VA were off by 6 in favor of Republicans in 2017. Or 4 like in Alabama.
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2018, 11:06:53 am »

Things get dicey when the Dem is under 50. I'm sure President Hillary Clinton thanks Michigan for those key victories as shown by the polls.

Polling average of 2016 in Michigan: Clinton +3.6
Polling average of 2018 in Michigan: Whitmer +10.3

Totally the same. Also, this isn't even a tightening since Whitmer was up 5 in EPIC-MRA's last poll.
Well, subtract 4 from the Clinton average and get the actual result...so let's subtract 4 from 10.3...and it gets us 6.3. Still not a double digit victory.

You do realize that just because the polls overestimated Democrats by 4 in 2016, it doesn't mean they will do the same thing this year? Polling errors can happen to both parties. Polling errors are especially prone to happen when the race is lightly polled like Michigan in 2016 was, because absolutely nobody thought Clinton would lose there.

Examples of polls overestimating Republican strength:
The 2012 election in general (not just the presidency, some of the Senate races were off big time including ND-Sen and MO-Sen)
2017 Virginia governor (Northam was up 3.3 in the polling average, won by 9)
2017 Alabama Senate (Moore was ahead 2.2, he lost by 1.5)
Pretty much every competitive Nevada election in the past 15 years
Even the 2010 GOP wave was overestimated. The GOP was up by 9.4 in the GCB, but won the nationwide house vote by 6.8
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2018, 11:21:42 am »

Yeah, I definitely don’t buy Whitmer underperforming Stabenow by 15 points.
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2018, 03:19:12 pm »

Told you guys it was tightening. We went from upper teens to single digits.

The fact this is a good poll for Schuette shows that he is DOA.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2018, 03:32:56 pm »

Told you guys it was tightening. We went from upper teens to single digits.

It is NOT tightening. This poll is not only 4 points within margin of error, but yesterday's poll showed Whitmer at 52 percent. Even if it is tightening (which is quite common), Whitmer will still win.

This comment isn't surprising coming from you.
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2018, 05:07:09 pm »

The Detroit Free Press’ hot take is that the nonstop anti-Granholm ads are working. Lol. This is a Schuette internal.
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Congratulations Governor Whitmer! Best of luck over the next four years!

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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2018, 08:26:46 pm »

This poll was done by the Glengariff group FYI

Glengariff Glenn Ross?
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2018, 11:51:30 pm »

This is still a likely D race!
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