MA WBUR: Baker +44

[Technocracy Timmy]

Democrats really do have a fetish for Moderate™ Republicans

Now we know where RINO Tom can pursue his political ambitions.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ugh, watch him become the next Chris Christie.

Take it from me, Massachusetts, learn from our mistake!

[Strudelcutie4427]

Ugh, watch him become the next Chris Christie.

Take it from me, Massachusetts, learn from our mistake!

There is absolutely zero chance Charlie ends up like Christie. His whole shtick is playing the role of a competent affable administrator. My only hope is that come 2020, he can clean up the congressional map a bit

[IceSpear]

Safer D than the California Senate race.

[IceSpear]

Democrats really do have a fetish for Moderate™ Republicans

Now we know where RINO Tom can pursue his political ambitions.

LOL

But yeah, it's hilarious people here actually think Susan Collins would lose a general. Democrats adore RINOs. Her only danger is in a primary.

[RINO Tom]

Democrats really do have a fetish for Moderate™ Republicans

Now we know where RINO Tom can pursue his political ambitions.

Nah, I would have much more of a Bruce Rauner relationship with that legislature in Taxachusetts.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Current town map with no toss ups

[Young Conservative]

Muh fundamentals say Likely D. Sorry Charlie, but my hands are tied.

[KingSweden]

Muh fundamentals say Likely D. Sorry Charlie, but my hands are tied.

IMO blue states won’t vote for a Republican ever IMO

[Suburbia]

I like Gov. Baker. He is a centrist.

[_]

Jesus

[Deblano]

Tilt D. Baker looks pretty vulnerable.

/s

[BBD]

MA liberals have a fetish for #moderate Republicans, even if they just so happen to be marijuana prohibitionists and charter school advocates.

[Senator Incitatus]

MA liberals have a fetish for #moderate Republicans, even if they just so happen to be marijuana prohibitionists and charter school advocates.

*especially

[Senator Incitatus]

Current town map with no toss ups

My thoughts on your very good map (numbers in parentheses are 2014 margins for Baker):

I think Baker can additionally win Boston, Chelsea, Newton, Springfield, Pittsfield, and Lawrence.

Newton (-21) is your basic wealthy, slightly-diverse suburb; Baker should pick up plenty of votes there. It almost seems like a lock for him at this point. He might flip Brookline (-37), too.

Boston (-36) is tricky. He'll be strong in white, Hispanic, and Asian neighborhoods but polling indicates he should also hold his own in black communities. Here's a couple maps that're simpler than me writing out the margin for each neighborhood:
https://bostonography.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/boston_precincts_choro-298x300.jpg
https://bostonography.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/boston_gov_2014.jpg

Springfield (-27), Pittsfield (-39), Chelsea (-36), and Lawrence (-42) are all Democratic machine cities where Baker has explicit or implicit support from the mayor. These are also industrial cities taking a beating from opioids, which should move some votes.

I'd put Cambridge (-62), Somerville (-51), Amherst (-62), Northampton (-55), P-town (-69), and Williamstown (-53) as Likely/Safe D, but that might be it. The other towns are too small to say anything with confidence.

Basically, if this poll were accurate, he should pick up any town he lost by less than 40 in 2014 with a concentration in wealthy suburbs and areas of urban decay. That includes all the towns I listed except Lawrence, where Baker has an added boost in the form of the mayor's explicit endorsement.

[Figueira]

Current town map with no toss ups

Nope.

[Figueira]

To elaborate, Gonzalez wins most of the rural Franklin County towns before he wins Springfield or some of those Berkshire County towns. I don't know enough about Eastern Mass to comment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Gonzalez is going to get baked.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the state that elected Romney and Deval Patrick has been the only Dem to win in recent times. Baker is pro choice and opposed Kavanaugh

[Politician]

But...IceSpear told me this race was going to tighten

[IceSpear]

But...IceSpear told me this race was going to tighten

I literally never said this, lol. Confusing your geography?