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  AK-Alaska Survey Research: Dunleavy +15, would lead in both 2-way races
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Author Topic: AK-Alaska Survey Research: Dunleavy +15, would lead in both 2-way races  (Read 1196 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: September 28, 2018, 01:41:22 pm »

The actual race:
Dunleavy (R) 44
Begich (D) 29
Walker (I-inc) 23

Two-way theoretical races:
Dunleavy (R) 50
Begich (D) 47

Dunleavy (R) 55
Walker (I-inc) 41

Begich (D) 46
Walker (I-inc) 40

https://www.facebook.com/alaskasurvey/posts/1141423086010323?

If anyone finds a PDF, let me know and I'll link it in this post.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 01:43:17 pm »

So, much for a Begich or Walker comeback
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 01:43:30 pm »

B-b-but muh weak candidate Dunleavy Sad

Anyway, nice. Moving this from Toss-up to Lean R.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 02:12:48 pm »

Definitely lean R. Walker needs to drop so that Begich has a chance.
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Politician
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 02:26:13 pm »

JUNK POLL!
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Politician
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 02:28:20 pm »

Only 4% undecided? Seriously?

Also, three way races ALWAYS poll badly. Polls showed Colorado as a pure tossup in 2010 only for Hickenlooper to win by 15. Polls showed LePage ahead by a monster margin and he won by 4 in 2010.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2018, 02:38:54 pm »

It's almost like Dunleavy performed "weakly" before only because he had far less name recognition than an incumbent governor and former senator. Who would've thought?

Anyway, Safe R.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2018, 03:10:40 pm »

Walker and Murkowski have been doing alot for Native Americans, that why Knowles was pretty along with 1term of Begich the only Dems to be elected
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2018, 05:21:01 pm »

Humiliating for Walker that he's in third. Even Rauner is doing better than he is. Probably going to move this to Likely R, not sure why Bad Boy Begich has to break our hearts like this.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2018, 06:37:30 pm »

Humiliating for Walker that he's in third. Even Rauner is doing better than he is. Probably going to move this to Likely R, not sure why Bad Boy Begich has to break our hearts like this.

Remember when Republicans were more likely to win NV than AK because of "candidate quality" and incumbency? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2018, 08:36:35 pm »

Humiliating for Walker that he's in third. Even Rauner is doing better than he is. Probably going to move this to Likely R, not sure why Bad Boy Begich has to break our hearts like this.

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2018, 09:30:32 pm »

What a sad end to Begich's political career this will be. He could've had a decent comeback campaign against Sullivan in 2020 instead he'll end up handing the Governorship to a far right Republican.
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Mondale
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2018, 09:34:37 pm »

Walker is a menace
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2018, 10:44:21 pm »

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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2018, 10:46:33 pm »


Walker is down 14 without Begich lmao
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2018, 11:08:21 pm »


Walker is the incumbent governor that had support from the Democrats. Begich entered the race out of nowhere for no reason, split the anti-Republican vote, and began attacking Walker. It's not surprising his numbers cratered when he's getting attacked from both sides. The classic Charlie Crist dilemma. He led Dunleavy in earlier head to head match ups.

Walker has no reason to bow out to accomodate Begich's massive and unwarranted ego. Even the unions are supporting Walker. And Dunleavy is clearly going to win no matter what at this point anyway thanks to Begich.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2018, 04:42:07 am »
« Edited: September 29, 2018, 04:51:28 am by Cory Booker »

Native Tribes are found of the Murkowski message and they can relate better to the GOP more so than Dems. Murkowskis who are GOPers have been doing this for a long time.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2018, 09:58:30 am »

Stay Lean R, in both 2-way races Tossup
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The Saint
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2018, 12:41:34 pm »

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2018, 12:54:55 pm »

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket


Walker is the incumbent governor that had support from the Democrats. Begich entered the race out of nowhere for no reason, split the anti-Republican vote, and began attacking Walker. It's not surprising his numbers cratered when he's getting attacked from both sides. The classic Charlie Crist dilemma. He led Dunleavy in earlier head to head match ups.

Walker has no reason to bow out to accomodate Begich's massive and unwarranted ego. Even the unions are supporting Walker. And Dunleavy is clearly going to win no matter what at this point anyway thanks to Begich.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2018, 04:07:22 pm »

A few interesting crosstabs:

Southeast Alaska: Walker +18 (45% Walker, 27% Dunleavy, 24% Begich)
Rural Alaska: Begich +1 (35% Begich, 34% Walker, 28% Dunleavy)
Southcentral Alaska: Dunleavy +36 (57% Dunleavy, 21% Begich, 18% Walker)
Anchorage: Dunleavy +7 (43% Dunleavy, 36% Begich, 19% Walker)
Fairbanks: Dunleavy +26 (50% Dunleavy, 24% Begich, 21% Walker)

18-34: Begich +3 (36% Begich, 33% Dunleavy, 25% Walker)
35-44: Dunleavy +10 (42% Dunleavy, 32% Walker, 25% Begich)
45-54: Dunleavy +32 (55% Dunleavy, 23% Begich, 18% Walker)
55+: Dunleavy +19 (48% Dunleavy, 29% Begich, 21% Walker)

White: Dunleavy +24 (49% Dunleavy, 25% Begich, 24% Walker)
Non-white: Begich +11 (43% Begich, 32% Dunleavy, 21% Walker)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2018, 01:27:29 am »

Walker is that unpopular? Maybe he should drop out instead of Begich. He may perform worse than Rauner at this point.
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2018, 10:36:17 am »

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket

He shouldn't seek reelection because he's down 14 points in a head-to-head with Dunleavy, while begich is only down three
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The Saint
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2018, 11:09:28 am »

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket

He shouldn't seek reelection because he's down 14 points in a head-to-head with Dunleavy, while begich is only down three

It's stupid to say he should just give up on his job because some losing senator with a seemingly big ego jumped in.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2018, 12:37:25 pm »

Hes a good boy whos just misunderstood. Wacky Walker needs to bow out.

Yes, the incumbent governor shouldn't seek re-election because muh split ticket

He shouldn't seek reelection because he's down 14 points in a head-to-head with Dunleavy, while begich is only down three

It's stupid to say he should just give up on his job because some losing senator with a seemingly big ego jumped in.

It's stupid to go down in Flames as a spoiler when the big ego senator with whom he shares somewhat more ideologically and in principle has a much better chance of winning in a head-to-head match.

Please understand that this is coming from someone who admires Walker and, in a three-way race where he had a realistic chance of winning, would likely vote for him.
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