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  FL-Cherry Communications/FL CoC: Gillum +6
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Author Topic: FL-Cherry Communications/FL CoC: Gillum +6  (Read 1497 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« on: September 28, 2018, 04:23:35 pm »

Andrew Gillum (D) 48
Ron DeSantis (R) 42

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276101-chamber-poll-andrew-gillum-holds-6-point-lead-over-ron-desantis

Last poll from this firm had Gillum 47, DeSantis 43.
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Mondale
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 04:33:23 pm »

Safe D
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The Saint
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 04:47:39 pm »

What is curious is that time after time polls have shown Nelson and Gillum with equal numbers (completely reasonable), but DeSantis is always behind Scott. It will be interesting to see if Gillum will significantly outpace Nelson in November.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 04:53:51 pm »

Safe D
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 04:59:10 pm »

Despire Atlas predictions of the contrary, it seems like Gillum winning the primary is the best thing that's happened to the FDP in a long time.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 05:14:33 pm »

As long as Nelson keeps it up, it's good for GILLUM, just like in 2012 when Obama expanded the EC in Red states with Brown, Nelson and Baldwin😁
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Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2018, 06:18:12 pm »

Nice!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2018, 06:41:14 pm »

AWWWW YEAAAHH
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2018, 07:12:55 pm »

At this point with so many polls confirming this point spread, it would be difficult to NOT believe that this race is Lean Dem (+5-7 D).

I'm sure there are some that might pull out the old canards of "Bradley / Wilder effect", "poll herding", etc....

Even the "FL is difficult to poll" (TRUTH) argument starts to fade when looking at these numbers.

The best question would be now perhaps:

Who are the undecided likely voters and how will they break?

What (If any) opportunities are available for DeSantis to reset the trajectory of the race, short of some major scandal that breaks late involving Gillum?


I'm sure we will be seeing at least 2-4 polls per week of FL as we head towards the endgame, with a hot GOV and SEN State on the line, so there is always time to adjust, but it's really starting to look like Gillum's lead is pretty close to insurmountable at this point, unless undecided voters break heavily DeSantis or some new "scandal" emerges that is of an actual substantive nature....
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2018, 08:12:30 pm »

This is probably Lean D at this point, lol.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2018, 01:43:01 am »

New Poll: Florida Governor by Cherry Communications on 2018-09-24

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2018, 11:01:53 am »

Wow, it is amazing how Gillum has totally run ahead. Usually this should indictate the race is Lean Democratic, but it's Florida after all. Charlie Crist led most polls late into the cycle in 2014, though that is not comparable since that year was a red wave and Scott an incumbent.
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Spenstar
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2018, 12:31:17 pm »

I kind of wish this was an outlier so hacks could Cherry-pick this result Tongue
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2018, 01:09:25 pm »

Safe D
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2018, 02:00:28 pm »

Safe Dem

OH and FL aren't safe, ask Strickland and Murphy of 2016, but it's a Tilt D with potential to shift back to tossup. GILLUM is exceeding expectations
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2018, 08:44:51 pm »

If Cherry Communications has Gillum up 6 points when they are notorious for asking questions that skew VERY heavily to the GOP, then that means Gillum is dominating.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2018, 03:20:01 am »

The GOP can't win presidency without FL. FL was won by Trump in 2016 due to Rubio and Rubio isn't on ballot😁
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2018, 10:44:08 am »

It will be interesting how the felon rights issue will reverberate in 2020.
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CocaineMitch'sCartel
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2018, 06:17:29 pm »

Bernie did terribly in FL in the 2016 primaries against Hillary. I had always assumed that Florida liked its establishment friendly DLC hacks. I did not expect Bernie backed Gillum to be doing so well.
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CocaineMitch'sCartel
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« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2018, 06:19:38 pm »

Safe D

Lean R to Tossup Tilt R. Gillum is under 50 and there will be huge panhandle and exurban turnout for Desantis.

/s
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Jags
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2018, 06:57:58 pm »

Bernie did terribly in FL in the 2016 primaries against Hillary. I had always assumed that Florida liked its establishment friendly DLC hacks. I did not expect Bernie backed Gillum to be doing so well.
Hillary had the name recognition, which is 95% of the battle. All things being equal, people tend to choose the leftward option.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2018, 07:35:32 pm »

I kind of wish this was an outlier so hacks could Cherry-pick this result Tongue
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2018, 08:46:49 pm »

Bernie did terribly in FL in the 2016 primaries against Hillary. I had always assumed that Florida liked its establishment friendly DLC hacks. I did not expect Bernie backed Gillum to be doing so well.
Can we stop using Gillum as a Bernie avatar? He was running his own campaign without the manís endorsement for well over a year. Everyone that voted for Hillary over Bernie wasnít an elitist white virtue signaling corporatist hack.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2018, 08:47:45 pm »

Bernie did terribly in FL in the 2016 primaries against Hillary. I had always assumed that Florida liked its establishment friendly DLC hacks. I did not expect Bernie backed Gillum to be doing so well.
Can we stop using Gillum as a Bernie avatar? He was running his own campaign without the manís endorsement for well over a year. Everyone that voted for Hillary over Bernie wasnít an elitist white virtue signaling corporatist hack.
We're talking about his political philosophy, not necessarily his personality or political associations, that makes him a Berniecrat.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2018, 12:41:22 pm »

Lean D, bordering on likely.
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