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  NH: ARG: Sununu +5
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Author Topic: NH: ARG: Sununu +5  (Read 1178 times)
IceSpear
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« on: September 28, 2018, 05:52:41 pm »

New Poll: New Hampshire Governor by ARG on 2018-09-26

Summary: D: 44%, R: 49%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 05:53:17 pm »

But Atlas told me Sununu was guaranteed to win by 30+ points because of muh April polls. Told you guys it was gonna close at the end just like it did in 2010 and 2014.

Looks like some people owe me and MT Treasurer an apology..
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 05:56:04 pm »
« Edited: September 28, 2018, 06:20:09 pm by Zaybay »

Wow, the trend was faster than I thought!

Edit: Just realized this is ARG..... NVM
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 05:56:45 pm »

Would like to see another pollster confirming this, but it's plausible that this could be close. However, Sununu is at 49%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 06:03:46 pm »

Would like to see another pollster confirming this, but it's plausible that this could be close. However, Sununu is at 49%

Yeah, I think he'll end up as Lynch/Hassan 2.0. Very popular, everyone expects them to win in a massive landslide early on, then at the very end the political climate drags them down, but they still win by a modest margin. Of course, I'm sure our Montanan friend has a different theory. Wink

I'll accept my accolades though.

Polls with this many undecideds are worthless.

But it is interesting that despite a 61% approval rating he's stuck at 41-42%. Even if Sununu wins re-election, it's very possible he could be like Hassan in 2014, who was super popular and was expected to cruise to re-election, but the political environment got a some dude relatively close.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 06:09:33 pm »

The "trend" of this race was a foregone conclusion. White NH women will see to it that the member of the anti-women hate group is brought to justice, especially now that NH Dems nominated the "right" candidate. Chris (R) can start packing his bags already.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2018, 06:10:43 pm »

Likely R.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2018, 06:15:46 pm »

ARG is garbage
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2018, 06:19:26 pm »

Are we unironically taking ARG seriously?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2018, 06:22:59 pm »

Are we unironically taking ARG seriously?

UNH (which is also a terrible pollster, FWIW) had it closing to Sununu +15 even before the primary and with Kelly having super low name recognition, so this result is completely believable.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2018, 06:37:26 pm »

> ARG
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RoboWop
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2018, 06:37:45 pm »

gARbaGe
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2018, 06:45:20 pm »

IceSpear and Mt Treasurer are so desperate to "prove" Sununu is highly vulnerable they're using a trash poll. What else is new?

Stage 1: Denial

The trend of this race is clear.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2018, 06:48:11 pm »

Would be nice to have a better pollster confirm this.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2018, 07:24:17 pm »

Would be nice to have a better pollster confirm this.
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Stephen Curry is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2018, 08:07:00 pm »

Sununu is probably gone. Just like Bro, John, in 2008, who lost a close election to Shaheen
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morgieb
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2018, 08:11:56 pm »

Wait, ARG still exists?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2018, 08:34:10 pm »

If only...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2018, 02:28:23 am »

ARG isn't the greatest pollster, but I have no idea why you guys think UNH is more credible.

Img
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Stephen Curry is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2018, 03:07:47 am »

Big time coming home effect😁
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2018, 10:59:21 am »

Angry NH women come home Tongue
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2018, 12:10:12 pm »

Sununu will still win due to his popularity, but it will be closer then we initially thought, same with Maryland. But enough of "NH is solid D". It could easily vote R in 2020.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2018, 12:11:02 pm »

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRG
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2018, 02:07:00 pm »

Sununu will still win due to his popularity, but it will be closer then we initially thought, same with Maryland. But enough of "NH is solid D". It could easily vote R in 2020.

If NH is even close in 2020, it will mean that Trump has already won the election bigly.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2018, 02:55:02 pm »

Sununu will still win due to his popularity, but it will be closer then we initially thought, same with Maryland. But enough of "NH is solid D". It could easily vote R in 2020.

The craziest part of this poll is that it shows him only up 5 despite having a +28 approval rating (56-28).
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