25 districts for each census

[kcguy]

I had been wanting to do maps showing how the US population distribution has changed over the years, so here are maps showing the US divided into 25 “districts” for each census.  (Twenty-five seemed large enough to see general trends, but it wasn’t so large as to get lost in the minutiae.)

The districts are only very roughly equal in size.  The target district population is 4% of the total US population, but the only fixed requirement is that each district must be between 0.7 and 1.4 times the target.

[kcguy]

As I was finishing the maps, I figured people would want to know partisan breakdowns, so I went back afterwards and interspersed party maps. 

For each decade, I assigned 11 districts to Party A and 11 to Party B, then declared the remaining 3 to be swing districts.  As the basis of my maps, I used the number of House of Representatives members elected for each party, since that seemed easy data to gather.

Since I started using actual congressional districts, I went back and renamed my 25 districts for each year as “regions”.  That's the term I will use for the rest of the post.

[kcguy]

1790 census
PRESIDENT:  George Washington



For the 1790 map, the regions are apportioned as follows:   NH-1;   MA-3;   CT/RI-2;   NY/VT-3;   NJ-1;   PA/DE-3;   MD-2;   VA-5;   NC/SW Terr-3;   SC/GA-2.

[kcguy]

1790s

Federalists/pro-Washington = Blue
Republicans/anti-Washington = Red

[kcguy]

1800 census
PRESIDENT:  John Adams

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) VA West/KY/NW Terr – 1.88; (2) NY North/VT – 1.61; (3) SC South/GA/MS – 1.40; (4) NC West/TN – 1.27; and (5) PA West – 1.17.  [Numbers represent a fraction of the target region size.]

The 5 smallest are (1) NC East – 0.65; (2) CT East/RI – 0.69; (3) MA Southeast – 0.69; (4) MD West/DC – 0.70; and (5) VA East – 0.77.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The CT East/RI region is disbanded.  The CT portion is combined with the rest of that state.  The RI portion combines with the MA Southeast region.
GAIN:  The NY North/VT region is divided in two along the state line.
SHIFT:  The MD West/DC region is undersized, so it takes some territory from MD East.
SHIFT:  The VA West/KY/NW Terr region is divided in two.  The KY/NW Terr portion becomes its own region, while the VA portion takes most of the VA North region.  The VA North region is disbanded, with the rest being added to VA East.
SHIFT:  The NC West/TN region is divided in two.  The TN portion absorbs GA and MS from the SC South region, and SC South region expands northward into the SC North region.  The NC portion of the NC West/TN region takes territory from the NC East region.  The NC East region is disbanded, with the rest being added to NC Mid.

[kcguy]

1800s

Federalists = Blue
Republicans = Red

[kcguy]

1810 census
PRESIDENT:  James Madison

The Louisiana Purchase is assumed to be added to the KY/OH/IN region.

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) KY/OH/IN/IL/MI/Orleans/LA – 2.68; (2) GA/TN/MS – 1.91; (3) NY North – 1.54; (4) PA West – 1.18; and (5) PA East – 1.13.

The 5 smallest are (1) SC South – 0.63; (2) MD West/DC – 0.66; (3) VA Mid – 0.72; (4) PA South/DE – 0.73; and (5) MD East – 0.74.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The MA Southeast/RI region is disbanded.  The RI portion is added to CT.  The MA portion is added to MA West, and a small part of MA West is added to MA Northeast.
SHIFT:  The NY North region is oversized, so it gives some territory to NY Mid, and NY Mid gives territory to NY South.
SHIFT:  The PA South/DE region is undersized, so it gains some territory from PA West.
TWO LOSSES:  The MD West/DC region is disbanded.  The MD portion is combined with the rest of the state.  The DC portion is added to the VA North.  Meanwhile, the VA Mid region is also disbanded and divided between its neighbors.
TWO GAINS:  The KY/OH/IN/IL/MI/Orleans/LA region is split three ways, with OH getting one region, the eastern half of KY getting a second, and the remainder of KY sharing a region with the rest of the territories.
SHIFT:  The SC South region is undersized, so it takes some territory from the SC North region.
GAIN:  The GA/TN/MS region is divided in two, with TN getting one region and GA/MS the other.

[kcguy]

1810s

Federalists = Blue
Republicans = Red

[kcguy]

1820 Census
PRESIDENT:  James Monroe

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) KY West/IN/IL/MI/LA/MO/AR – 1.68; (2) NY West – 1.65; (3) OH – 1.51; (4) GA/MS/AL – 1.41; and (5) PA East – 1.14.

The 5 smallest are (1) VT – 0.61; (2) NH – 0.63; (3) SC North – 0.64; (4) SC South – 0.67; and (5) NJ – 0.72.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The VT region is disbanded and added to NH.
SHIFT:  The NY West region is oversized, so it gives territory to the NY Northeast region, which gives territory to NY Southeast.
SHIFT:  The NJ region is undersized, so it takes DE from the PA South/DE region.  The PA portion of the PA South/DE region then takes territory from PA East.
GAIN:  The OH region is divided in two.
SHIFT:  The NC Northeast region is undersized, so it gains some territory from the NC South & West region.
LOSS:  The SC North region is disbanded and combined into the SC South region.
GAIN:  The KY West/IN/IL/MI/LA/MO/AR region is split.  The KY West/IN/IL/MI portion gains some territory from KY East.  The LA/MO/AR portion gains MS/AL from the GA/MS/AL region.

[kcguy]

1820s
Jacksonians = Red
Adams/Clay/anti-Jackson = Blue

[kcguy]

1830 census
PRESIDENT:  Andrew Jackson

Florida is assumed to be added to the LA/MS/AL/MO/AR region.

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) MS/AL/FL/LA/MO/AR – 1.69; (2) KY West/IN/IL/MI – 1.46; (3) NY West – 1.39; (4) TN – 1.33; and (5) NY Northeast – 1.20.

The 5 smallest are (1) NC Northeast – 0.66; (2) VA East/DC – 0.73; (3) PA East – 0.76; (4) CT/RI – 0.77; and (5) NJ/DE – 0.77.



SEAT CHANGES:
SHIFT:  The NY West region is oversized, creating a domino effect.  NY West gives territory to NY Northeast.  NY Northeast gives territory to NY Southeast.  NY Southeast gives territory to the NJ/DE region.  NJ/DE gives the DE portion to PA South.  PA South gives territory to PA East.  PA East also takes territory from PA West.
LOSS:  The VA East/DC region is disbanded, with the VA portion being divided between VA South and VA West, and the DC portion being added to MD.
SHIFT:  The NC Northeast region is undersized, so it gains some territory from the NC South & West region.
SHIFT:  The KY West/IN/IL/MI region is oversized, so the KY portion is added to KY East.
GAIN:  The AL/MS/FL/LA/MO/AR region is split, with AL/MS/FL becoming one region and LA/MO/AR becoming the other.

[kcguy]

1830s
Jacksonian/Democrats = Red
Anti-Jackson/Whigs = Blue

[kcguy]

1840 Census
PRESIDENT:  Martin Van Buren

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) IN/IL/MI/WI/IA – 2.12; (2) AL/MS/FL – 1.50; (3) OH East – 1.27; (4) LA/MO/AR – 1.22; and (5) TN – 1.21.

The 5 smallest are (1) NC Northeast – 0.54; (2) NC South & West – 0.57; (3) CT/RI – 0.61; (4) MD/DC – 0.75; and (5) MA South & West – 0.79.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The CT/RI region is disbanded.  The RI portion is added to MA South & West.  The CT portion is added to NY East.  NY East gives territory to NY Mid and to NY South/NJ.  NY South/NJ gives its NJ portion to PA East.  PA East gives territory to PA West and to PA South/DE.  PA South/DE gives its DE portion to MD/DC.
LOSS:  The NC Northeast region is disbanded and combined with the NC South & West region.
SHIFT:  OH East is oversized, so it gives territory to OH West.
TWO GAINS:  The AL/MS/FL region is divided, with AL/FL forming one region.  The MS portion takes LA from the LA/MO/AR region.  The MO/AR portion takes IA from the IN/IL/MI/WI/IA region.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the IN/IL/MI/WI/IA region is divided in two, with IN forming one region and IL/MI/WI forming the other.

[kcguy]

1840s
Democrats = Red
Whigs = Blue

[kcguy]

1850 Census
PRESIDENT:  Zachary Taylor

TX/NM are assumed to be added to the MS/LA region.
OR/CA/UT are assumed to be added to the MO/AR/IA/MN region.

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) IL/MI/WI – 1.68; (2) MS/LA/TX/NM – 1.51; (3) OH Southwest – 1.35; (4) MO/AR/IA/MN/OR/CA/UT – 1.30; and (5) NY South – 1.09.

The 5 smallest are (1) NH/VT – 0.68; (2) VA East – 0.69; (3) SC – 0.72; (4) MD/DC/DE – 0.78; and (5) OH Northeast – 0.79.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The NH/VT region is disbanded.  The NH portion is added to the ME portion of MA Northeast/ME.  The VT portion is added to the CT portion of the NY East/CT region and also gains territory from the MA South and West/RI region (which picks up the MA portion of the MA Northeast/ME region).  NY East/CT gives its NY portion to NY Mid.  NY Mid gives territory to NY West.
SHIFT:  The OH Southwest region is oversized, so it gives territory to OH Northeast.
SHIFT:  The VA East region is undersized, so it gains territory from VA West.
GAIN:  The IL/MI/WI region is divided, with IL getting one region.  The MI/WI portion gains IA/MN from the MO/AR/IA/MN/OR/CA/UT region.  The non-IA/MN remainder of that region gains TX/NM from the MS/LA/TX/NM region.

[kcguy]

1850s

Basically, the Democrats formed the one stable party during the decade, with other parties trying in various years to form the opposition.  At one point, in 1855, a coalition of these parties was able to deny Democrats the Speakership.  So, basically my map is the Democrats versus nearly everyone else.

Democrats = Red
Non-Democrats = Blue



Also, from here on out, there was always at least one Democratic district in the NYC area.  (I say this because the district gets too small to see later on.)

[kcguy]

1860 Census
PRESIDENT:  James Buchanan

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) MO/AR/KS/TX/NM/UT/CA/OR/WA – 2.34; (2) MI/WI/IA/MN/NE – 1.91; (3) IL – 1.36; (4) NY Southeast – 1.25; and (5) MS/LA – 1.19.

The 5 smallest are (1) SC – 0.56; (2) VA East – 0.60; (3) VA West – 0.67; (4) MD/DE/DC – 0.70; and (5) ME/NH – 0.76.



SEAT CHANGES:
SHIFT:  The ME/NH region is undersized, so it gains the VT portion of the MA West/CT/VT region.  The remainder of the MA West/CT/VT region swaps territory with the MA East/RI region, with the MA portion of the MA West/CT/VT region joining MA East/RI and the RI portion of the MA East/RI region joining the CT portion of MA West/CT/VT.  The CT & RI portions also pick up territory from NY Southeast.  NY Southeast gains territory from NY Northeast.  NY Northeast gains territory from NY West.  [NOTE:  The remaining portion of NY Southeast is still cyan but has been reduced to Kings, New York, and Richmond counties, so it’s barely visible.]
LOSS:  The VA East region is disbanded and is divided between VA West and MD/DE/DC.
LOSS:  The SC region is disbanded and added to NC.
TWO GAINS:  The MI/WI/IA/MN/NE region is divided.  The MI/WI portion forms one region.  The IA/MN/NE portion takes KS/UT/CA/OR/WA from the MO/AR/KS/TX/NM/UT/CA/OR/WA region.  Meanwhile, the MS/LA region is also divided.  The MS portion takes AR from the MO/etc region.  The LA portion takes TX/NM from the MO/etc region, leaving MO with its own region.

[kcguy]

1860s
Democrats = Red
Republican = Blue

NOTE:  With some Southern states gone for half of these elections and various Border states voting Unionist in random elections, I wasn’t sure how to handle this, since every decision I made affected the outcome.

Ultimately, I came to two decisions:
1.    I removed 5 of the regions, on the grounds that they didn’t cast enough votes, and I divided up the remainder 9/2/9.
2.   The Unionists tended to side with the Republicans, but they weren’t the same thing as Republicans.  In the end, I counted each Unionist congressman as ¾ Republican and ¼ Democratic.

[kcguy]

1870 Census
PRESIDENT:  Ulysses Grant

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) IA/MN/NE/Dak/KS/CO/UT/WY/ID/MT/CA/NV/OR/WA – 1.96; (2) IL – 1.65; (3) MI/WI – 1.45; (4) NC/SC – 1.15; and (5) MO – 1.12.

The 5 smallest are (1) NY North – 0.75; (2) OH East – 0.76; (3) GA – 0.77; (4) AL/FL – 0.77; and (5) NY West – 0.79.



SEAT CHANGES:

LOSS:  The NY Southeast/CT/RI region is disbanded.  The NY portion is divided between the NY North and NYC regions.  The CT/RI portion is added to MA.  MA gives territory to the ME/NH portion of the ME/NH/VT region.  The VT portion is added to NY North.  NY North gives territory to NY West.
LOSS:  The VA West/WV region is disbanded.  The WV portion is added to KY.  The VA West portion is given to the VA East/DC portion of the VA East/DC/MD/DE region.  The MD/DE portion of the region is added to the NJ portion of the PA East/NJ region.  The PA portion of the PA East/NJ region is given to PA South.  PA South gives territory to PA West.
SHIFT:  The OH East region is undersized, so it takes some territory from OH West.
GAIN:  The IL region is oversized and divided in two.
LOSS:  The MS/AR region is disbanded.  The AR portion is added to TN.  The MS portion is added to the AL portion of AL/FL.  The FL portion is added to GA.
TWO GAINS:  The MI/WI region is split, with the MI portion forming its own region and the WI portion taking the MN/Dak portion of the IA/MN/NE/Dak/KS/CO/UT/WY/ID/MT/CA/NV/OR/WA region.
Meanwhile, the remaining portion of the IA/etc portion is also split, with the IA/NE portion forming one region and the KS/CO/UT/WY/ID/MT/CA/NV/OR/WA portion taking NM/AZ from the LA/TX/NM/AZ region.

[kcguy]

1870s
Democrats = Red
Republican = Blue

[kcguy]

DISCUSSION ON TERRITORIES:

In 1880, the census recorded 33,426 people in Alaska.  This marks the first enumeration outside the contiguous United States.

By 1930, the list of territories included Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Panama Canal Zone.  I found a 1930 population of 12,082,365 for the Philippines, but I also found a statement saying that no decennial census was conducted for the Philippines, so I’m a little confused.  If anyone can find definitive data for all the territories for every year, feel free to post it.

In the end, I decided to exclude all the “overseas” territories.  Alaska and Hawaii will be included only from 1960 onward.

[kcguy]

1880 Census
PRESIDENT:  Rutherford Hayes

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) KS/CA/OR/WA/NV/ID/UT/AZ/NM/CO/WY/MT – 1.38; (2) TX/LA – 1.26; (3) NC/SC – 1.19; (4) AL/MS – 1.19; and (5) TN/AR – 1.17.

The 5 smallest are (1) IL South – 0.73; (2) MA Northeast/ME/NH – 0.78; (3) OH East – 0.78; (4) IL North – 0.80; and (5) NY East/VT – 0.81.



SEAT CHANGES:
LOSS:  The NY East/VT region is disbanded.  The VT portion is added to MA Northeast/ME/NH.  The NY portion is divided between NY West, NYC/Long Island, and the NJ/DE portion of the NJ/DE/MD region.  The MD portion of that region is added to VA/DC.
SHIFT:  IL South is undersized, so it gains territory from IL North.
GAIN:  The KS/CA/OR/WA/NV/ID/UT/AZ/NM/CO/WY/MT region is split, with the non-KS portion forming one region.  The KS portion gains the NE portion of the IA/NE region, plus the Dakota portion of the WI/MN/Dak region.

[kcguy]

1880s
Democrats = Red
Republican = Blue

[kcguy]

1890 Census
PRESIDENT:  Benjamin Harrison

Of the existing regions, the 5 largest are (1) TX/LA – 1.33; (2) KS/NE/SD/ND/OK/Ind Terr – 1.31; (3) CA/OR/WA/NV/ID/UT/AZ/WY/MT/CO/NM – 1.23; (4) WI/MN – 1.19; and (5) VA/MD/DC – 1.16.

The 5 smallest are (1) IL South – 0.65; (2) OH East – 0.71; (3) OH West – 0.75; (4) IA – 0.76; and (5) MI – 0.83.



SEAT CHANGES:
SHIFT:  The IL South region is undersized, so it gains territory from IL North.
SHIFT:  The IA region is undersized, so it gains the NE portion of the KS/NE/SD/ND/OK/Ind Terr region.  The KS/OK/Ind Terr portion of that region gains the CO/NM portion of the CA/OR/WA/NV/ID/UT/AZ/WY/MT/CO/NM region.  The non-CO/NM portion of that region gains the SD/ND portion of the KS/etc region.

[kcguy]

1890s
Democrats = Red
Republican = Blue



FUN FACT:  The Populists won a majority of the seats in the KS/CO region in 1890, 1892, and 1896, but the Republicans won a majority for the decade as a whole.