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  Republican Primary - Old School Republican vs ExtremeConservative
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Author Topic: Republican Primary - Old School Republican vs ExtremeConservative  (Read 1112 times)
ThatConservativeGuy
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« on: October 01, 2018, 01:04:46 am »
« edited: October 01, 2018, 01:13:12 am by ThatConservativeGuy »

How would a GOP primary between Old School Republican and ExtremeConservative go? One is a pragmatic, fiscally/economically center-right Republican with moderate social positions against an unabashedly conservative ideological warrior.

In the era of Trump, both of these types of Republicans, traditional establishment types, and movement conservatives of the Tea Party mold, have been pushed into the background.

How would a race between two candidates from these wings of the party play out?

Discuss with maps, if you so please.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 01:16:49 am »

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ThatConservativeGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 01:21:16 am »


But would you consider ExtremeConservative and Trump to be ideological equivalents? If anything, Trump's economic views/social views are more similar to those of OSR than ExtremeConservative.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 01:21:49 am »


Trump was from the Northeast and was more secular, while ExtremeConservative is from the South and very religious, so I gave OSR the benefit of the doubt there.

Can he at least have DC? Trump only got 14% there. Wink
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 01:26:28 am »
« Edited: October 01, 2018, 01:30:31 am by Old School Republican »

LOL Ice Spear and Mizzouian can never stop theirselves from displaying their utter hackishness when it comes to making predictions about Republican voters.

The fact is they never understood the actual reason why Trump won, Humongous amount of Name Recognition, a super divided field , 2 billion in free media (without this he loses) , and Republican Establishment giving all the money to Jeb when nobody was in the mood for another Bush in office.



The fact is this primary will be either a closer version of 2000 or 2012. If Extreme wins it will be 2000, If I win it will be 2012 but what I know for certain is it wont be 2016.


BTW: If Mitt Romney and John McCain werent too liberal for Republican voters, I certainly wouldn't be either(I am probably to the right of them on many issues)



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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 01:49:23 am »

LOL Ice Spear and Mizzouian can never stop theirselves from displaying their utter hackishness when it comes to making predictions about Republican voters.

The fact is they never understood the actual reason why Trump won, Humongous amount of Name Recognition, a super divided field , 2 billion in free media (without this he loses) , and Republican Establishment giving all the money to Jeb when nobody was in the mood for another Bush in office.



The fact is this primary will be either a closer version of 2000 or 2012. If Extreme wins it will be 2000, If I win it will be 2012 but what I know for certain is it wont be 2016.


BTW: If Mitt Romney and John McCain werent too liberal for Republican voters, I certainly wouldn't be either(I am probably to the right of them on many issues)

You may be to the right of them on issues that Republican voters either don't care about or actively oppose you on. You're to the left of them on nearly everything they prioritze and actually base their vote on.

Did you notice all those Missouri Republicans who voted against right to work? Wink
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 02:01:56 am »

LOL Ice Spear and Mizzouian can never stop theirselves from displaying their utter hackishness when it comes to making predictions about Republican voters.

The fact is they never understood the actual reason why Trump won, Humongous amount of Name Recognition, a super divided field , 2 billion in free media (without this he loses) , and Republican Establishment giving all the money to Jeb when nobody was in the mood for another Bush in office.



The fact is this primary will be either a closer version of 2000 or 2012. If Extreme wins it will be 2000, If I win it will be 2012 but what I know for certain is it wont be 2016.


BTW: If Mitt Romney and John McCain werent too liberal for Republican voters, I certainly wouldn't be either(I am probably to the right of them on many issues)

You may be to the right of them on issues that Republican voters either don't care about or actively oppose you on. You're to the left of them on nearly everything they prioritze and actually base their vote on.

Did you notice all those Missouri Republicans who voted against right to work? Wink

Actually no I dont think there is many issues Im to the left of Romney on

On Immigration: I support Romney on enforcing E-Verify and denying government benefits to illegal immigrants. Romney by the way also supported making it easier for people who graduated in a Marketable Degree or had a good job here for many years to get a green card. I support that as well

On Trade: Romney was pretty supportive of free trade with exception of China , which is my postion as well

 Abortion: I support a 20 week ban , and banning government funding for it . I would say that during the debate and people would still applaud.

Obamacare: this would be problematic but I probably would come up with a replacement plan which is probably pretty close on the ideological scale as Ocare so I might be able to skate by on that issue
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ThatConservativeGuy
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 02:04:51 am »
« Edited: October 01, 2018, 02:09:12 am by ThatConservativeGuy »

Best Case Scenario for ExtremeConservative


Best Case Scenario for Old School Republican


Likely Result

ExtremeConservative, though very off-putting to coastal/suburban/moderate Republicans with his positions on abortion and other social issues, manages to eek out a win with a focus on bread and butter conservative issues that rallies the heartland states in his favor. OSR does well with blue state Republicans and suburban Republicans in states like Arizona and Virginia.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 02:14:50 am »


But would you consider ExtremeConservative and Trump to be ideological equivalents? If anything, Trump's economic views/social views are more similar to those of OSR than ExtremeConservative.

It's more like a John Kasich vs. Ted Cruz map.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 09:55:17 am »

Kasich would have beaten Ted Cruz in a one on one match. Ted Cruz is the most unlikeable type of candidate you can almost ever find and would certainly lose .

TCG
Best Case Scenario for ExtremeConservative


Best Case Scenario for Old School Republican


Likely Result

ExtremeConservative, though very off-putting to coastal/suburban/moderate Republicans with his positions on abortion and other social issues, manages to eek out a win with a focus on bread and butter conservative issues that rallies the heartland states in his favor. OSR does well with blue state Republicans and suburban Republicans in states like Arizona and Virginia.


I think I would win SC in the best case and lose IA . Remember SC voted for McCain and Romney while IA almost always votes for the religious right candidate .
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 01:19:37 pm »

I'd vote for OSR and he'd win.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 05:15:05 pm »

I think the key would lie in the early states.  Polling nationally would be close in January, so the momentum from the early states would be important.  I think both campaigns would know that I had no shot in New Hampshire and that I would be a significant favorite in Iowa, particularly given the caucus format.  In a true one-on-one matchup, those two might be less important than usual, and South Carolina would start getting a lot of attention and would probably be a must-win for me, given the more favorable than the country as a whole demographics of South Carolina for my campaign.  I think I would win the state on the strength of the Upstate and the Columbia suburbs, even if OSR would certainly win in Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and Hilton Head.

From there, I'm not sure that it would be over, but I do think the schedule (assuming something roughly like 2016) would give me a slight advantage.  I would probably lose in Nevada, but the number of Southern states on Super Tuesday would probably allow me to seize a lot of the momentum, as I think I would do quite well in the South in this scenario.  However, if I underperformed at all that day, I would be in big trouble, as a lot of the later winner take all (or close to that) states are in less favorable territory for me (I think I'd get crushed in NY and NJ, for example).  In a good scenario for me, I would become the presumptive nominee following Wisconsin, where I would cruise to victory with the WOW Counties talk radio establishment behind me (much like Cruz, although I might win the rural areas too since OSR is very different from Trump).

My campaign would certainly emphasize the abortion issue in the primaries and point out OSR's support for abortion on demand well into the second trimester.  That would certainly be a breaking point for the campaign.

One area where I think I am getting too much credit is the Upper Mountain West (particularly WY, MT, and AK).  The conservatism of those parts is not really a religious conservatism at all.  I might still sneak them out, but a Westerner would have a shot in those states.  The only states west of the plains I would feel good about would be Utah, New Mexico, and probably Idaho.

If I won the nomination, I do think I would do somewhat better than Trump in suburban areas in a 2016-like climate.  A lot of the issue in those areas was Trump's rhetoric around immigration and cultural (not social) issues.  I don't think I would have as much of an EC advantage as Trump did because I would probably only lose California by 20 instead of 30, including holding Orange County.  With my position on immigration and a few other issues, I would also seriously target New Mexico in the general election and would probably win it before I won Michigan or maybe even New Hampshire.

Here are my map guesses:

Primary:

(I only win CO and ME because of caucuses)

My General vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016:


OSR's General vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016:
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 08:13:12 pm »

I would support old school Republican
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Representative fhtagn
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 09:47:28 am »

I'd easily support OSR. I think it'd be close, but he would likely squeeze by on a narrow win.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 05:54:43 pm »

I'd easily support OSR. I think it'd be close, but he would likely squeeze by on a narrow win.

Yeah, I don't want to be mean to ExtremeConservative but I think he's too extreme to win even the GOP primary in comparison to OSR.
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Green Dot Grey Patagonia
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 05:29:25 pm »

The one that weighs less, I guess.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2018, 01:13:19 am »


Ditto. But he would lose.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2018, 01:23:05 am »


Serious question- how well would my views on immigration go over with today's GOP primary electorate?  I'd have to hope they were prioritizing different issues.
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MB
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« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2018, 01:50:28 am »


Serious question- how well would my views on immigration go over with today's GOP primary electorate?  I'd have to hope they were prioritizing different issues.
OSR's views are pretty similar, so the logical answer is another anti-immigration candidate comes in and wins.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2018, 02:31:27 am »
« Edited: December 19, 2018, 02:49:09 am by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »


Serious question- how well would my views on immigration go over with today's GOP primary electorate?  I'd have to hope they were prioritizing different issues.
OSR's views are pretty similar, so the logical answer is another anti-immigration candidate comes in and wins.

So basically just like 2016 then.

Edit: Indeed the match up seems rather 2012ish in a lot of ways.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2018, 03:29:23 am »


Sorry, but the moment you start calling for charging abortion doctors for murder, punishing women and invading foreign countries to outlaw abortion, you'd lose to Hillary Clinton by a massive landslide, and obviously not win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin Tongue
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Gucci Slides
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« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2018, 04:50:44 pm »

Honestly I'd say it would just be 2008, with OSR taking all the McCain and Romney states, and ExtremeConservative taking all the Huckabee states.
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