Senatorial Ratings and Predictions - Arizona

[ElectionsGuy]

Greetings, I am creating a similar series for Senate races that I did for presidential and (I think) Senate and Governor races in 2016. 1 Vote to rate the state of the race and 1 vote to predict who will win. It will go in alphabetical order. There will be 1 thread a day. Every thread will be accessible to change votes as we progress towards the elections. The median vote in the ratings is the rating that will represent each state. The party holding the seat currently will determine which name comes first in the choices. All threads will be locked after the series is finished in early November. I will update maps after each thread. I will have to remember to get on this forum every day, but if for some reason I don't, I will just do two in one day. I'm a busy person and there's a chance I could forget. But enjoy the series nonetheless.

Toss-Up, 49-47 Sinema.

Ratings

No Election: 23
Safe D: 1
Likely D:
Lean D:
Toss-Up:
Lean R:
Likely R:
Safe R:
No Election: 42

Predictions

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 42

[ElectionsGuy]

Should I do a similar thing with the gubernatorial races?

[😥]

Should I do a similar thing with the gubernatorial races?

I think yes

[😥]

Lean D/Kyrsten Sinema
(Tilt D)

[MT Treasurer]

Greetings, I am creating a similar series for Senate races that I did for presidential and (I think) Senate and Governor races in 2016.

Nah, I did this for the Senate races and xingkerui for the gubernatorial races in 2016. I’m glad someone else is doing it again this year, though.

Anyway, Toss-up (actually I’d say Tilt D, but there’s no such option), Sinema wins 50-47.

[DaWN]

Lean D, Sinema wins by around 4 or 5 points

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You did not put tilt D, which is where I have it, but it is closer to tossup than lean D so I said tossup but it goes to Sinema.

[Gass3268]

Toss Up (Tilt D) / Sinema wins by about 2-3 points

[PAK Man]

Tossup, but I think Sinema will ultimately win.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Lean D, Sinema wins by 4-5.

[Xing]

Really glad that you’re bringing these threads back! Do you think you’re going to do threads for competitive House races as well (like in 2016)?

Anyway, I’ll say Lean D (barely), Sinema wins 50-47.

[Skye]

Tossup, but it'll probably be won by Synema.

[ElectionsGuy]

Greetings, I am creating a similar series for Senate races that I did for presidential and (I think) Senate and Governor races in 2016.

Nah, I did this for the Senate races and xingkerui for the gubernatorial races in 2016. I’m glad someone else is doing it again this year, though.

Anyway, Toss-up (actually I’d say Tilt D, but there’s no such option), Sinema wins 50-47.

That's right, I can't remember if I did it for 2014 or what. Anyway, thank you.

Really glad that you’re bringing this threads back! Do you think you’re going to do threads for competitive House races as well (like in 2016)?

Anyway, I’ll see Lean D (barely), Sinema wins 50-47.

Thank you. I'll certainly think about. If I do I'm going to have to decide what the criteria for competitive is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a tossup. But I think Sinema has the edge.

[Peanut]

I’ll say Lean D (barely), Sinema wins 50-47.

[IceSpear]

Toss up, Sinema. It's looking like the political environment could just be too much for Republicans to overcome here, but it's Kyrsten Sinema, so I'll be holding my breath until the end.

[Mr. Smith]

Toss up, Sinema. It's looking like the political environment could just be too much for Republicans to overcome here, but it's Kyrsten Sinema, so I'll be holding my breath until the end.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lean D, Sinema.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Likely D, Sinema. Apparently you guys don't think McSally has a chance either.

[Wisconsin+17]

Lean R by 5 points.

[SN2903]

McSally wins by 1-2 pts is my gut.

[JGibson]

Lean D (closer to Tilt D), Sinema by 1%-4%.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Sinema summons the witches:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/emails-kyrsten-sinema-summoned-witches-to-her-anti-war-rally

What more can be said.

Will Arizona 2018 = Delaware 2010 Special

Wonder if Sinema went to the hexing of Kavanaugh last weekend in New York City.

[UWS]

Sinema summons the witches:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/emails-kyrsten-sinema-summoned-witches-to-her-anti-war-rally

What more can be said.

Will Arizona 2018 = Delaware 2010 Special

Wonder if Sinema went to the hexing of Kavanaugh last weekend in New York City.

What more can be said? Well, Sinema promoted a terrorist lawyer.

She promoted events featuring convicted terror lawyer Lynne Stewart who was convicted for aiding an Islamist terror organization and its leader.

In fact, Stewart was indicted for aiding radical Islamic terrorist Omar Abdel-Rahman (who played a major role in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) in evading restrictions on his communications to his followers, even though those messages could have possibly ordered the death of Americans. Eventually, she was sentenced to 10 years in prison. In the final event, she served three years before being released on parole after a diagnosis of breast cancer.

In the first event’s invite, Sinema said Stewart was “emphatically not guilty”.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/kyrsten-sinema-promoted-a-terrorist-lawyer/

https://www.redstate.com/streiff/2018/10/11/will-krysten-sinemas-terrorist-connection-doom-chance-win-jeff-flakes-senate-seat/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-promoted-events-featuring-convicted-terror-lawyer

I would not be surprised if McSally’s campaign bring this up during the campaign.

That being said, it’s a toss-up but my gut says McSally wins by between 1-3 percentage points.

[Xing]

The people in my party are going absolutely berserk at the prospect of a bisexual atheist woman winning in Arizona

Why do you think Republicans spent so much trying to unseat a lesbian Senator, even though it was clearly a lost cause?