Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Alaska
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Poll
Question: Rate Alaska and Predict Who Will Win?
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Lean I		  
#9
Likely I		  
#10
Safe I		  
#11
Bill Walker (I)*		  
#12
Mark Begich (D)		  
#13
Mike Dunleavy (R)		  
#14
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 91

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Alaska  (Read 1678 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: October 01, 2018, 06:50:57 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2018, 06:57:04 AM by ElectionsGuy »
I have added other options to accommodate the three-way race in this scenario. I'm predicting 46-25-23 Dunleavy-Walker-Begich. Likely R. But who the hell knows with this one..

Ratings



No Election: 7
Safe D:
Likely D:
Lean D:
Toss-Up:
Lean R:
Likely R:
Safe R:
No Election: 7

Predictions



Democrats: 7
Republicans: 7
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andjey
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 06:56:07 AM »
Likely R/Mike Dunleavy
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 07:21:29 AM »
Safe D (or I), unelectable joker Dunleavy is a Rosendale/Rosen-tier candidate who couldn’t get elected dog catcher. #CandidateQualityMatters

Seriously though, Lean R (closer to Likely than Toss-up), Dunleavy wins 44 - 29 (Begich) - 25 (Walker) - 2 (Toien).
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DaWN
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 07:29:34 AM »
Tossup because of the uncertainty, but it's one I personally will be moving to the GOP soon. Dunleavy wins, probably by anywhere between 5 and 10 points but who knows who'll be second.
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 09:40:02 AM »
Lean R, Dunleavy >40%

Though this is AK, something unexpected could happen.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 09:51:42 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 01, 2018, 07:21:29 AM
Safe D (or I), unelectable joker Dunleavy is a Rosendale/Rosen-tier candidate who couldn’t get elected dog catcher. #CandidateQualityMatters

Not to mention, Bad Boy Begich is becoming almost as badass and unbeatable as Tester Wink

Anyway, I think Dunleavy probably would’ve narrowly beaten Walker in a two-way race, but in a three-way race, Walker is pretty much done for. Likely R, Dunleavy 45, Begich 27, Walker 26
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Politician
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 10:37:58 AM »
Likely R, but tossup if Walker drops out. Dunleavy wins 41 with Begich at 35 and Walker at 33.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 06:14:50 PM »
Safe R. Thanks Begich.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 08:11:44 PM »
Lean R. Deunleavy is going to win.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 08:13:45 PM »
Likely R. Dunleavy wins 42-30-28, with Begich second and Walker third
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 09:32:42 PM »
Dunleavy is the clear favourite. Could end up being Likely R unless Walker or Begich drop out.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 10:46:55 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 01, 2018, 08:13:45 PM
Likely R. Dunleavy wins 42-30-28, with Begich second and Walker third
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2018, 10:14:53 AM »
Dunleavy (R) - 42%
Begich (D) - 37%
Walker (IND) - 19%
Other - 2%
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2018, 11:43:42 AM »
Modifying my prediction slightly:

Dunleavy (R) 46%
Walker (I)* 27%
Begich 24%

Still Likely R, bordering on being safe.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2018, 10:12:10 PM »
Bumped for fairly obvious reasons.    Lean R.     51-46
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xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2018, 10:36:21 PM »
Likely R, Dunleavy wins 50-39.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 11:09:38 PM »
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katman46
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2018, 11:11:59 PM »
Tossup/Tilt Dunleavy, 49-48
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2018, 07:43:03 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2018, 08:06:59 AM by ElectionsGuy »
I'm considering doing a re-poll of this race due to the circumstances of this race. Should I?

I still think its Likely R. 50-40 Dunleavy.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2018, 08:29:58 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 20, 2018, 07:43:03 AM
I'm considering doing a re-poll of this race due to the circumstances of this race. Should I?

I still think its Likely R. 50-40 Dunleavy.

I don't think you have to since you allowed people to change their votes.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2018, 09:12:26 AM »
I had this as Lean R before (allowing for exactly such developments), it’s still Lean R now. Dunleavy wins by 5.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2018, 10:09:19 AM »
I'm moving this to Toss Up, still Dunleavy, until we see some polls.
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Continential
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2018, 02:53:09 PM »
Can there be a new poll
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Xeuma
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2018, 02:59:17 PM »
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