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Author Topic: muon2's Diplomacy game  (Read 3407 times)
True Federalist
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« Reply #125 on: January 12, 2019, 07:50:01 pm »

Both France and Germany made tactical blunders earlier in this game, so I wouldn't assume everything's going to go by the optimum Diplomacy book. It probably is the case that they should be able to keep you from winning by yourself, but I don't consider that a guarantee just yet.  I'd at least wait and see what the builds are before accepting a draw.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #126 on: January 12, 2019, 08:42:20 pm »

At this point, it's fairly clear that the Turks have won, the only question is if a Franco-German alliance can force the Porte to accept a draw.

The Germans have no ability to threaten Sevastapol and their prospects of advancing into the former Austrian territories look bleak.  The Porte might be able to take Moscow in 1908, but likely only if the Reich fails to reinforce Moscow because it gets too involved in the West.

The French also have a lack of ability to act against the Turks right now. It's doubtful that the Republic of France can hold on to Venice once the Turks get a fleet into the Adriatic with the only question being does that happen in 1907 or 1908? Too much effort in Britain, or even worse, fighting with Germany, makes reinforcing the Republic's forces in the western Mediterranean in time impossible, but Britain has supply centers a Franco-German alliance will need to be able to halt the Porte.

The biggest weakness a Franco-German alliance has are those two German navies. If they're needed in the Baltic for defense, the Porte will have taken at least Moscow. If the French were to build a second northern fleet that could then grind the German fleet to pieces to be replaced by armies before heading south themselves to the Mediterranean, that too would actually make the situation worse in the short term by tying up so much force away from the Turkish fronts, that they might win outright before the freed up resources could get south.

Oddly enough, what a Franco-German alliance needs most is either an active British or an active Austrian player, at least in the short run.  A British player could grind away the German fleets so they could be rebuilt as armies without tying up French navies and make it possible for the one French army already landed to take Britain without further reinforcements, tho it wouldn't be able to finish until Fall 1909. (Obviously France would need to let Germany get back Munich at minimum.)  An active Austrian player cooperating with the French would be able to hold Tunis and support French navies in the water. (In the turn just past, an Austria cooperating with the French would have been able to get a French fleet into WES and still seen the elimination of the Italians.)

Well, no.  One of the most important skills in Diplomacy is the ability to count to 18.  Unless F&G are completely brain-dead (which they have demonstrated not to be the case), the absolute max that Turkey can take in this position is Turkey (3) + Austria (3) + Balkans (4) + Italy (3) + Tunis (1) + Russia except StP (3) for a total of 17.   The 18th center just isn't there; France can block me from further gains in the Med, Stp can't be taken by land from the south as long as it has minimal support, and FG can easily defend the German centers.  The game will be an FGT draw, and I'll be happy to call it a day as soon as Austria is eliminated.  Or if Austria is now considered in CD, let's call it now and think about starting a new game with 7 active players this time. 

Muon2: Can we call a vote for an FGT draw now?  If so, I propose it and vote yes.

The first I heard Austria was in Civil Disorder was this Morning (Presumably because they didn't post military movements last turn???)

Still, the Austrian Player is interested in playing future games, and my assumption is that they didn't post military movements solely because a HOLD would be a HOLD regardless, and they likely didn't get my PM until shortly before movements were posted that I would be supporting their Fleet in Tunisia against the anticipated Italian / Turkish combined military movements....

Arguably GM's "absolute Max" scenario is factually correct, and with Germany and France both picking up an additional Supply Center from England by Fall '07 AND the concentration of Military Land Forces within Central Europe, make it extremely likely that not only will not achieve the maximum of 18/34, but additionally might well potentially lose in a protracted ground war....

I Second GM's motion, and if Germany agrees and if Austria's Agreement is required as well, I look forward to a New Game, a reshuffling of the Deck, since by my Count we have 5/7 current players (Including Italy) in Agreement to play a new game, and hopefully we can recruit at least one or two more reliable players, or start with (5) or (6) Player Diplomacy Rules in the event we can't get the full (7)....

NOVA
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« Reply #127 on: January 12, 2019, 09:52:03 pm »

Third. I think we can bring peace to Europe.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #128 on: January 12, 2019, 10:26:50 pm »

Both France and Germany made tactical blunders earlier in this game, so I wouldn't assume everything's going to go by the optimum Diplomacy book. It probably is the case that they should be able to keep you from winning by yourself, but I don't consider that a guarantee just yet.  I'd at least wait and see what the builds are before accepting a draw.

True both France and Germany made blunders early in the Game based upon being a bit rusty with a few rule items....

Also, I believe that a Caretaker Government in England made a massive tactical and strategic blunder during the Spring of '02, where they attempted to make Military Movements against France and Germany at a time where there was a secret French-English Alliance to conquer Germany.

Shush.... top secret intelligence cables leaked now that the war is virtually over.... Wink

The fog of war and the unknowns, caused France to shift forces towards England at a time where Italy was starting to shift forces towards the Western MED, eyeballing the Iberian Peninsula and Marseilles....

France made aggressive movements towards Germany after England dropped out, and Turkey back-stabbed Austria-Hungary shortly after.

Still, France, Germany, and Turkey are all experienced players, so I would not anticipate any balls getting dropped again, as occurred early in the Game, and France and Germany might well prevail in a United Front against Turkey based upon what are likely the final map results.....

Again, True Federalist there will be a new Diplomacy Game shortly, and since it is obviously it is something totally up your ally, and you are likely to be a reliable player once you commit, I ask will you join us in a new game of Diplomacy?

If not, at least potentially offer to be a "pinch hitter" in the event that a player drops out unexpectedly for personal reasons for a few turns, so we can cover the game even if we start it using (5) or (6) player Diplomacy 5.0 rules....

« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 02:32:20 am by NOVA Green »Logged

muon2
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« Reply #129 on: January 12, 2019, 10:28:53 pm »

Based on the acceptance by France and Germany of Turkey's offer of a draw I declare the game a mutual draw between those three. Austria has submitted no moves for the last two seasons and is in civil disorder and like England does not figure into the draw.

I am open to judging another game if there are at least 7 interested players (I don't want to start with less than a full game). If there are more than 7, then players would be selected by lot with extra players given first right to take over an abandoned power.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #130 on: January 13, 2019, 11:34:25 pm »

The caretaker government did make a tactical error, but I viewed my role as leaving options open for whoever took over so I wouldn't say it was a strategic error.  Even with my error, Britain was still in a playable position.  As for playing, I like kibitzing as it doesn't require a fixed commitment, and I'll have plenty on my plate in Spring 2019. I might be available for a caretaker role, but not for a full player.
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Quote from: Ignatius of Antioch
He that possesses the word of Jesus, is truly able to bear his very silence. Epistle to the Ephesians 3:21a
The one thing everyone can agree on is that the media is biased against them.
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