2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[Virginiá]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Lean D

Really? I’d have thought Tossup at best

The most recent poll was 44-39 Hood, which spells very good news for Democrats here.

[Pollster]

What does the State Senate/House look like? With Hood on the top of the ticket can either chamber be made competitive?

[Zaybay]

There is one condition to winning the governorship that no one has mentioned. The winner must win a majority of the vote, or 50%+1. If no one wins a majority, the winner of the most state house districts is made the winner. Ill let you guess who that benefits. Good news is that Hood has won by large margins as AG, and has won a majority of state house seats before, but its still a problem.

[Virginiá]

For some reason Mississippi is the only state that DKE doesn't have presidential results by legislative districts for. If I had to guess, the legislative elections will be completely unremarkable and GOP majorities will barely budge, if at all.

Hood / MS fit the mold of a gubernatorial win that has little if any impact on any other downballot races.

There is one condition to winning the governorship that no one has mentioned. The winner must win a majority of the vote, or 50%+1. If no one wins a majority, the winner of the most state house districts is made the winner. Ill let you guess who that benefits. Good news is that Hood has won by large margins as AG, and has won a majority of state house seats before, but its still a problem.

You mean whoever wins a vote in the state MS House of Reps? This was from Ballotpedia:

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And I have to say, that is a really stupid way to do things, but totally unsurprising for a deep south state.

[Zaybay]

For some reason Mississippi is the only state that DKE doesn't have presidential results by legislative districts for. If I had to guess, the legislative elections will be completely unremarkable and GOP majorities will barely budge, if at all.

Hood / MS fit the mold of a gubernatorial win that has little if any impact on any other downballot races.

There is one condition to winning the governorship that no one has mentioned. The winner must win a majority of the vote, or 50%+1. If no one wins a majority, the winner of the most state house districts is made the winner. Ill let you guess who that benefits. Good news is that Hood has won by large margins as AG, and has won a majority of state house seats before, but its still a problem.

You mean whoever wins a vote in the state MS House of Reps? This was from Ballotpedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And I have to say, that is a really stupid way to do things, but totally unsurprising for a deep south state.

whoops, yep, thats correct. If Jim Hood or the R doesnt win a majority of the votes, the vote goes to the state house. Funny enough, another non-Jim Crow state has the same law, and its VT, which is actually a threat to any incumbent as it is to D governors in MS.

Edit: After further research, My original idea was correct. If its a plurality, the winner of the most state house districts is the winner.

[Del Tachi]

There is one condition to winning the governorship that no one has mentioned. The winner must win a majority of the vote, or 50%+1. If no one wins a majority, the winner of the most state house districts is made the winner. Ill let you guess who that benefits. Good news is that Hood has won by large margins as AG, and has won a majority of state house seats before, but its still a problem.

You mean whoever wins a vote in the state MS House of Reps? This was from Ballotpedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And I have to say, that is a really stupid way to do things, but totally unsurprising for a deep south state.

So, actually the term "electoral votes" in the context of MS gubernatorial elections refers to the number of state legislative districts won by each candidate.  So in the event of a plurality-win the winner is whoever wins a plurality in the most state house districts.  Only in the event of an "electoral vote" tie or non-majority do individual members of the state house get to vote.  This is what happened in 1999, when the Democratic state legislature elected Musgrove governor after Musgrove and Parker each won 61 of the 122 house districts.  This type of system isn't unique to Mississippi or the Deep South, Peter Shumlin was elected governor of Vermont under a similar runoff system in 2014. 

This is potentially very problematic for Hood in 2019 if the election were to be decided by a plurality because it is likely that a lot of his votes would come from running up his margin in majority-Black VRA districts.  Even if he bested Reeves by several tens of thousands of votes, this runoff system would probably make Reeves governor without individual house members actually having to take a vote.  While Hood has won a majority of state house districts before in his AG runs, I expect the geography of his gubernatorial race to be a bit different.  He'll probably fall some in the traditionally conservadem NEMS (thanks to #MAGA inelasticity) while probably running ahead of typical Democratic numbers in Madison/Rankin, the Gulf Coast, Forrest/Lamar, GTR and Oxford.  I think this is enough to comfortably get him over 50%, but would not bode well for him winning a majority of legislative districts.

 

[Virginiá]

So, actually the term "electoral votes" in the context of MS gubernatorial elections refers to the number of state legislative districts won by each candidate.  So in the event of a plurality-win the winner is whoever wins a plurality in the most state house districts.  Only in the event of an "electoral vote" tie or non-majority do individual members of the state house get to vote.  This is what happened in 1999, when the Democratic state legislature elected Musgrove governor after Musgrove and Parker each won 61 of the 122 house districts.  This type of system isn't unique to Mississippi or the Deep South, Peter Shumlin was elected governor of Vermont under a similar runoff system in 2014. 

This is potentially very problematic for Hood in 2019 if the election were to be decided by a plurality because it is likely that a lot of his votes would come from running up his margin in majority-Black VRA districts.  Even if he bested Reeves by several tens of thousands of votes, this runoff system would probably make Reeves governor without individual house members actually having to take a vote.  While Hood has won a majority of state house districts before in his AG runs, I expect the geography of his gubernatorial race to be a bit different.  He'll probably fall some in the traditionally conservadem NEMS (thanks to #MAGA inelasticity) while probably running ahead of typical Democratic numbers in Madison/Rankin, the Gulf Coast, Forrest/Lamar, GTR and Oxford.  I think this is enough to comfortably get him over 50%, but would not bode well for him winning a majority of legislative districts.

 

Hmm, wait, I'm a bit confused. If he gets 50% or more, does that mean he wins regardless of how many legislative districts he carries? Or does he need to carry a certain # of districts regardless of what his vote share is?

[Del Tachi]

So, actually the term "electoral votes" in the context of MS gubernatorial elections refers to the number of state legislative districts won by each candidate.  So in the event of a plurality-win the winner is whoever wins a plurality in the most state house districts.  Only in the event of an "electoral vote" tie or non-majority do individual members of the state house get to vote.  This is what happened in 1999, when the Democratic state legislature elected Musgrove governor after Musgrove and Parker each won 61 of the 122 house districts.  This type of system isn't unique to Mississippi or the Deep South, Peter Shumlin was elected governor of Vermont under a similar runoff system in 2014. 

This is potentially very problematic for Hood in 2019 if the election were to be decided by a plurality because it is likely that a lot of his votes would come from running up his margin in majority-Black VRA districts.  Even if he bested Reeves by several tens of thousands of votes, this runoff system would probably make Reeves governor without individual house members actually having to take a vote.  While Hood has won a majority of state house districts before in his AG runs, I expect the geography of his gubernatorial race to be a bit different.  He'll probably fall some in the traditionally conservadem NEMS (thanks to #MAGA inelasticity) while probably running ahead of typical Democratic numbers in Madison/Rankin, the Gulf Coast, Forrest/Lamar, GTR and Oxford.  I think this is enough to comfortably get him over 50%, but would not bode well for him winning a majority of legislative districts.

 

Hmm, wait, I'm a bit confused. If he gets 50% or more, does that mean he wins regardless of how many legislative districts he carries? Or does he need to carry a certain # of districts regardless of what his vote share is?

If he gets >50% of the vote on election day, he wins.

If not, then the candidate would wins the popular vote in majority of Mississippi's 122 state house districts is the winner.

If no candidate wins a majority of the 122 districts (like what happened in 1999), then individual members of the State House vote to elect a governor.

[Virginiá]

Ohhh, ok. Thank you Tachi!

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, if Hood wins, he can't really expand Dem map opportunities. Using 2010 data, MS can't really hit a second competitive seat. The VRA seat and racial polarization basically takes in most of the Dem vote. What is left can be gerrymandered into a second seat...but Dems won't have a trifecta. The math gets even harder in 2020, since the VRA seat will need to grow in relation to MS's other 3 seats.

[Yellowhammer]

Reeves +7 poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/tate-reeves-jim-hood-close-race-according-millsaps-college-poll/1018330001/

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious. Hood is not some unbeatable juggernaut. He gives the dems a great shot to pick up the governor's mansion, but it's far from guaranteed.
Tossup for now.

[MT Treasurer]

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious.

If it’s so inelastic, why did it elect Hood in a landslide? Also keep in mind that turnout in off-year elections generally favors Democrats, especially while a Republican/Trump is in the White House.

[Yellowhammer]

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious.

If it’s so inelastic, why did it elect Hood in a landslide? Also keep in mind that turnout in off-year elections generally favors Democrats, especially while a Republican/Trump is in the White House.

Over-performance in a row office won't necessarily carry over to a gubernatorial run; voters who are fine with electing dems to lower offices may not feel so comfortable voting for a democrat to be at the helm of their state. This is especially true in Alabama and Mississippi, where democrats running for state legislature sometimes outperform the partisan leans of their districts by 40 points or more. Hood is a good candidate, but he faces a tough race. MS electing a democratic governor isn't going to be a cakewalk.
And Trump will always be quite popular among Mississippi whites. He isn't a liability in Mississippi.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Reeves +7 poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/tate-reeves-jim-hood-close-race-according-millsaps-college-poll/1018330001/

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious. Hood is not some unbeatable juggernaut. He gives the dems a great shot to pick up the governor's mansion, but it's far from guaranteed.
Tossup for now.

Reeves is going to win.

[Politician]

Reeves +7 poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/tate-reeves-jim-hood-close-race-according-millsaps-college-poll/1018330001/

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious. Hood is not some unbeatable juggernaut. He gives the dems a great shot to pick up the governor's mansion, but it's far from guaranteed.
Tossup for now.

Reeves is going to win.

Peak Atlas, predicting an election 13 months before it occurs.

[OneJ]

Millsaps-Chism Strategies isn't a stellar pollster, to be fair, so I'd be cautious with them given that they got the Mayoral race in Jackson wrong big time. However, we have slightly over a year until election day 2019. But here's some interesting findings from this poll:

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This finding looks quite different from the SurveyMonkey/NBC poll from earlier today. In the latter poll, 50 percent somewhat approve of the state legislature and 5% strongly approve, which is 55% total approval.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[IceSpear]

Reeves +7 poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/tate-reeves-jim-hood-close-race-according-millsaps-college-poll/1018330001/

I expect the race to be close, and Hood will perform well no doubt, but declaring an open gubernatorial race "Likely D" in an inelastic Trump +18 state 14 months out is hilarious. Hood is not some unbeatable juggernaut. He gives the dems a great shot to pick up the governor's mansion, but it's far from guaranteed.
Tossup for now.

Reeves is going to win.

Peak Atlas, predicting an election 13 months before it occurs.

No, Peak Atlas is predicting the 2036 electoral college map in 2018.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

I imagine introducing competitive districts would break the black district and therefore breach the VRA?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

I imagine introducing competitive districts would break the black district and therefore breach the VRA?

You can draw 2 black majority districts which aren't too convoluted, and indeed I came up with a good plan a while back which was quite elegant but unfortunately I forgot to screenshot it and can't recreate it given Safari has nuked Silverlight and I have a MacBook.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

I imagine introducing competitive districts would break the black district and therefore breach the VRA?

You can draw 2 black majority districts which aren't too convoluted, and indeed I came up with a good plan a while back which was quite elegant but unfortunately I forgot to screenshot it and can't recreate it given Safari has nuked Silverlight and I have a MacBook.

Just hunted through my post history, no plans but I do have some quoted plans from other sources,

Or you could draw two Black majority districts without creating Rorschach's Salamander. (from Daily Kos)

Alternatively from 538:

[Oryxslayer]

You don't get it do you? It is possible to draw another competitive seat in MS (with outdated numbers that fail to reflect AA pop shrinkage in the delta), the problem is that they all are gerrymanders. There is no way to naturally link the Eastern cities to the western rurals without passing through Republican territory. Hood, if he wins (which is a big if), will have a Republican legislature - no way they agree to a Dem gerrymander. The present map does have a few links to work out, but can reasonably be called Fair, for MS.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I thought for sure that Jim Hood would wait to see how this years GA Gov race would play out before running for MS Gov in 2019. Looks like I was incorrect.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

From Hood's issues page:

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I wish more Democrats would talk like this.

[Del Tachi]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.