2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[smoltchanov]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

#OurRevolution in Mississippi? Sounds rather hilarious, and - totally unable to win.

[gespb19]

Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From Hood's issues page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wish more Democrats would talk like this.

[smoltchanov]

Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

Interesting. What about an "Old guard" - Wilemon and Dearing - in state Senate? One will be almost 85, other - almost 80, IIRC....

[gespb19]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Don’t forget about Hal Marx, mayor of Petal. Could get some of those Pine Belt/McDaniel voters.

Still, it’s highly unlikely that this primary even goes to a runoff.

[gespb19]

Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

Interesting. What about an "Old guard" - Wilemon and Dearing - in state Senate? One will be almost 85, other - almost 80, IIRC....

No clue without knowing who will run. My gut is that Wilemon (should he run) will get either no opposition or some Republican that isn’t really a threat. Dearing probably gets more of a challenge.

[gespb19]

Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

DeSoto precincts came in today. Espy won an estimate 62% in HD40 (estimate because one of the precincts in this district is split, but I tried to account for this).

HD64 (NE Jackson and a little bit of Madison Co.) also looks to have been won by Espy, something like 52-53%. Bill Denny is 88 and has been in office forever, and I don't even know if he's running for re-election. Regardless, Dems need a legit challenger here.

[smoltchanov]

Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

DeSoto precincts came in today. Espy won an estimate 62% in HD40 (estimate because one of the precincts in this district is split, but I tried to account for this).

HD64 (NE Jackson and a little bit of Madison Co.) also looks to have been won by Espy, something like 52-53%. Bill Denny is 88 and has been in office forever, and I don't even know if he's running for re-election. Regardless, Dems need a legit challenger here.

Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

[Intell]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Does it exist in MS?

[smoltchanov]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Does it exist in MS?

Universities exist even in Mississippi))). And with Universities go Professors and students. AFAIK - they are less liberal, then in Berkeley, but still - mostly rather liberal.

[gespb19]

Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

It's purely demographics. Southhaven and particularly Horn Lake are places where white % is down and black % is up. Espy won 3/5 in HD40, and Dems should at least contest this district.

[smoltchanov]

Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

It's purely demographics. Southhaven and particularly Horn Lake are places where white % is down and black % is down. Espy won 3/5 in HD40, and Dems should at least contest this district.

Thanks! I understood, that Black % is up)))))

[gespb19]

The C-L put out an updated list of people that might run statewide office in 2019.

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/06/whos-running-2019-elections-mississippi-governor-lieutenant-governor-lt-gov-attorney-general/2202478002/

Couple businessmen are considering a run, apparently. Tommy Duff, owner of the Southern Tire Mart chain, is a billionaire and is the richest person in MS (per Forbes). The C-L is saying he might make a run, though I was told a few weeks ago that he wasn't running. The article also says Gerard Gilbert might run. He's the founder and CEO of something called Venture Technologies in Ridgeland. I'm less familiar with him than I am Duff. If either were to run, they could run a Fordice/Trump-type campaign where they talk up their business experience and how they're not a usual politician or whatever. White Mississippians generally like people that. Don't know enough about Gibert, but Duff would obviously be able to self-fund.

The article adds that McDaniel might run. State politicos think Trump could endorse him and that would shakeup the primary. Bill Waller Jr. (son of former governor Bill Waller Sr.) is resigning as Chief Justice of the MSC and did not run rule out a run when asked in November. It's mentioned in the article that he can't declare party affiliation as a justice, but that won't be an issue since he's resigning. He'd have a strong base of support in Hinds and Madison County.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

[gespb19]

Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

It's purely demographics. Southhaven and particularly Horn Lake are places where white % is down and black % is down. Espy won 3/5 in HD40, and Dems should at least contest this district.

Thanks! I understood, that Black % is up)))))

Yes. That was a typo. White % down, black % up.

[smoltchanov]

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

[Bidenworth2020]

I am calling this RN- Whichever way Madison county goes, so goes the state.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

[bagelman]

It's nice that we're all optimistic, but someone on AAD brought up the electoral college.

Seriously, in order to win MS-GOV, you need to win the PV AND a majority of state house seats.

I think it's quite possible that Hood wins the PV and loses the election.

[smoltchanov]

I am calling this RN- Whichever way Madison county goes, so goes the state.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

I understand, but hope that sanity still prevails. No one, but him, has even theoretical chances to beat Republican candidate. And surely - no Black candidate. Democrats already got a bitter lesson in 2015. Slater would lose to Bryant too, but not in catastrophical way Gray did. That influenced state legislative races for sure.

[OneJ]

I am calling this RN- Whichever way Madison county goes, so goes the state.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

I understand, but hope that sanity still prevails. No one, but him, has even theoretical chances to beat Republican candidate. And surely - no Black candidate. Democrats already got a bitter lesson in 2015. Slater would lose to Bryant too, but not in catastrophical way Gray did. That influenced state legislative races for sure.

That wasn't the case this year. Baria, who is pro-choice, only managed to get 39.5% against Wicker. It should also be stated that he isn't very well-known. Espy did better, albeit slightly, getting 40.7% and with Tobey Bartee, who's also black but way less recognition, got a total of 42.4%.

However, Hood would obviously outperform the average Democrat regardless of race.

[ON Progressive]

OneJ, are you worried about the primary challenge to Hood succeeding or no? I am pretty worried.

[gespb19]

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

The primary won't be 80% black. Keep in mind that a lot of rural whites still vote in the Democratic primary because of the local races. 299,368 voted in the Dem primary in '15 vs. 274,108 in the GOP primary.

Map of which party primary had the most votes:

[OneJ]

OneJ, are you worried about the primary challenge to Hood succeeding or no? I am pretty worried.

There is, IMO, a small nonzero chance (probably less than 1%) that the challenger succeeds. I’m fairly confident that Hood’s opponent(s) won’t get very far at all but we’ll see. Too early to be 100% sure.

[Rookie Yinzer]

His challengers being black means nothing if they can’t raise money. I’m sure he will get a fair number of whites crossing over to vote in the primary and name-recognition votes from black voters to win the primary comfortably.

[Del Tachi]

It's nice that we're all optimistic, but someone on AAD brought up the electoral college.

Seriously, in order to win MS-GOV, you need to win the PV AND a majority of state house seats.

I think it's quite possible that Hood wins the PV and loses the election.

No.  You only have to win a majority of state house seats if not candidate wins a majority of the statewide vote.

[smoltchanov]

I am calling this RN- Whichever way Madison county goes, so goes the state.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

I understand, but hope that sanity still prevails. No one, but him, has even theoretical chances to beat Republican candidate. And surely - no Black candidate. Democrats already got a bitter lesson in 2015. Slater would lose to Bryant too, but not in catastrophical way Gray did. That influenced state legislative races for sure.

That wasn't the case this year. Baria, who is pro-choice, only managed to get 39.5% against Wicker. It should also be stated that he isn't very well-known. Espy did better, albeit slightly, getting 40.7% and with Tobey Bartee, who's also black but way less recognition, got a total of 42.4%.

However, Hood would obviously outperform the average Democrat regardless of race.

Baria had much stronger opponent, hence - the difference. And, as you said himself - was less well-known, then Espy..... Still, while i hope to live long enough to see Black elected statewide in Mississippi - i don't think it will happen in next 5 years...