2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[gespb19]

It's nice that we're all optimistic, but someone on AAD brought up the electoral college.

Seriously, in order to win MS-GOV, you need to win the PV AND a majority of state house seats.

I think it's quite possible that Hood wins the PV and loses the election.

No.  You only have to win a majority of state house seats if not candidate wins a majority of the statewide vote.

Section 140 of the state constitution seems to make it pretty clear that you must win a majority of districts AND the majority of the vote.

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/ed_pubs/constitution/constitution.asp

The Governor of the state shall be chosen in in the following manner: On the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of A.D. 1895, and on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in every fourth year thereafter, until the day shall be changed by law, an election shall be held in the several counties and districts created for the election of members of the House of Representatives in this state, for Governor, and the person receiving in any county or such legislative district the highest number of votes cast therein, for said office, shall be holden to have received as many votes as such county or district is entitled to members in the House of Representatives, which last named votes are hereby designated "electoral votes". In all cases where a representative is apportioned to two (2) or more counties or districts, the electoral vote based on such representative, shall be equally divided among such counties or districts. The returns of said election shall be certified by the election commissioners, or the majority of them, of the several counties and transmitted, sealed, to the seat of government, directed to the Secretary of State, and shall be by him safely kept and delivered to the Speaker of the House of Representatives on the first day of the next ensuing session of the Legislature.

The Speaker shall, on the same day he shall have received said returns, open and publish them in the presence of the House of Representatives, and said House shall ascertain and count the vote of each county and legislative district and decide any contest that may be made concerning the same, and said decision shall be made by a majority of the whole number of members of the House of Representatives concurring therein by a viva voce vote, which shall be recorded in its journal; provided, in case the two (2) highest candidates have an equal number of votes in any county or legislative district, the electoral vote of such county or legislative district shall be considered as equally divided between them. The person found to have received a majority of all the electoral votes, and also a majority of the popular vote, shall be declared elected.

[Del Tachi]

It's nice that we're all optimistic, but someone on AAD brought up the electoral college.

Seriously, in order to win MS-GOV, you need to win the PV AND a majority of state house seats.

I think it's quite possible that Hood wins the PV and loses the election.

No.  You only have to win a majority of state house seats if not candidate wins a majority of the statewide vote.

Section 140 of the state constitution seems to make it pretty clear that you must win a majority of districts AND the majority of the vote.

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/ed_pubs/constitution/constitution.asp

The Governor of the state shall be chosen in in the following manner: On the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of A.D. 1895, and on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in every fourth year thereafter, until the day shall be changed by law, an election shall be held in the several counties and districts created for the election of members of the House of Representatives in this state, for Governor, and the person receiving in any county or such legislative district the highest number of votes cast therein, for said office, shall be holden to have received as many votes as such county or district is entitled to members in the House of Representatives, which last named votes are hereby designated "electoral votes". In all cases where a representative is apportioned to two (2) or more counties or districts, the electoral vote based on such representative, shall be equally divided among such counties or districts. The returns of said election shall be certified by the election commissioners, or the majority of them, of the several counties and transmitted, sealed, to the seat of government, directed to the Secretary of State, and shall be by him safely kept and delivered to the Speaker of the House of Representatives on the first day of the next ensuing session of the Legislature.

The Speaker shall, on the same day he shall have received said returns, open and publish them in the presence of the House of Representatives, and said House shall ascertain and count the vote of each county and legislative district and decide any contest that may be made concerning the same, and said decision shall be made by a majority of the whole number of members of the House of Representatives concurring therein by a viva voce vote, which shall be recorded in its journal; provided, in case the two (2) highest candidates have an equal number of votes in any county or legislative district, the electoral vote of such county or legislative district shall be considered as equally divided between them. The person found to have received a majority of all the electoral votes, and also a majority of the popular vote, shall be declared elected.

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

[Virginiá]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

[Del Tachi]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

[gespb19]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

I can see them making up something like "VOTER FRAUD IN HINDS COUNTY AND THE DELTA!!1111!!11" as their reason for voting Reeves in.

[smoltchanov]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

I can see them making up something like "VOTER FRAUD IN HINDS COUNTY AND THE DELTA!!1111!!11" as their reason for voting Reeves in.

Well, the politics became so stupidly ideologized and polarized in US, that any pretext will do. In other situations Democrats would do the same too. BOTH parties are "worthy" of each other now...

[gespb19]

http://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults/2015General/certified%20results/2015%20Electoral%20Vote%20Report.pdf

Hood won the house districts 69-53 in the ’15 AG race, but he won quite a few by single digits. He won’t do nearly as poorly as Generic Democrat in the TVA counties, but a lot of these districts will be won by Reeves (though it’ll be closer) in 2019. This is assuming, of course, that a Hood win will be close. Something like 51-49 or 52-48, not a 55-45 race like 2015. An 8-10 point win and he probably does carry the districts.

I see 45 districts where Hood either definitely wins or probably wins. For Reeves, 50. After that, it’s unclear.

Some of these rural districts with 25-35% black % will be crucial.

[smoltchanov]

http://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults/2015General/certified%20results/2015%20Electoral%20Vote%20Report.pdf

Hood won the house districts 69-53 in the ’15 AG race, but he won quite a few by single digits. He won’t do nearly as poorly as Generic Democrat in the TVA counties, but a lot of these districts will be won by Reeves (though it’ll be closer) in 2019. This is assuming, of course, that a Hood win will be close. Something like 51-49 or 52-48, not a 55-45 race like 2015. An 8-10 point win and he probably does carry the districts.

I see 45 districts where Hood either definitely wins or probably wins. For Reeves, 50. After that, it’s unclear.

Some of these rural districts with 25-35% black % will be crucial.

So, Reeves will need 12 more, Hood - 17? First is more likely.

[gespb19]

Sure looks like Gibert is running.

https://twitter.com/grgibert/status/1072474352770277377

[gespb19]

Foster's run is officially official.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/12/rep-foster-rebuffs-pressure-cash-from-gop-insiders-to-stay-out-of-governors-race/

Late last month, an operative with strong ties to the state’s Republican establishment called Foster and offered him a large sum of money to drop his rumored bid for governor, according to several people close to Foster’s campaign. The caller, they said, promised Foster they would help him raise $1 million if he ran for a statewide office other than governor. Foster declined.

Foster confirmed he received pressure from within his own party to drop out of the race for governor, but declined to discuss specifics.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hood HAS to flip Lafayette and Madison and DeSoto and make inroads in Rankin and Harrison. Can't rely on rural hicks anymore.

[smoltchanov]

Hood HAS to flip Lafayette and Madison and DeSoto and make inroads in Rankin and Harrison. Can't rely on rural hicks anymore.

Would you give all us an advice how to do that? Run a "burning progressive" campaign?

[DINGO Joe]

Hood HAS to flip Lafayette and Madison and DeSoto and make inroads in Rankin and Harrison. Can't rely on rural hicks anymore.

Hood ran quite poorly in DeSoto in 2015, about 10 points behind Espy's showing.  Ran ahead of Espy in the others.

[OneJ]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Does it exist in MS?

Lol. But to be fair though, the 2016 Dem primary was roughly split between Liberals and Moderates/Conservatives.

[smoltchanov]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Does it exist in MS?

Lol. But to be fair though, the 2016 Dem primary was roughly split between Liberals and Moderates/Conservatives.

Naturally. I wouldn't be surprized even if liberals would be in majority. Democratic party in Mississippi is heavily Black now, and percentage of (at least - economical) liberals among Blacks is high enough.

[7,052,770]

Sure looks like Gibert is running.

https://twitter.com/grgibert/status/1072474352770277377

Google XenaReb NCAA if you want to know how far he and his wife were willing to go to take down Mississippi State football.

[gespb19]

Y'all Politics says Duff isn’t running.

So for the Republicans, you have Reeves, Foster, Marx, and possibly Gibert.

[gespb19]

Buck Clarke running for State Treasurer. Dems have a real shot to pick up this seat with the district being majority-minority.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/19/sen-clarke-powerful-money-committee-chairman-announces-state-treasurer-bid/

[smoltchanov]

Buck Clarke running for State Treasurer. Dems have a real shot to pick up this seat with the district being majority-minority.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/19/sen-clarke-powerful-money-committee-chairman-announces-state-treasurer-bid/

Clarke managed to hold it for considerable time nevertheless, and i don't even remember him being "too moderate". How he did it?

P.S. I have read about Wilemon's retirement in 2019. That's will be almost sure Republican pickup, as this area turned to the right even more recently, and Democrats are unlikely to have a very popular and conservative (in "newspeak", in reality he is a moderate conservative) candidate like him.

[gespb19]

Eh, I wouldn't count out the Dems entirely in SD5. It's a very conservative district (~85% Trump), but if they get some countywide office holder from Tishomingo or Itawamba to run, they'll have a chance.

But I'd say there's a much better chance that the GOP holds SD22 than the Dems holding SD5. SD22 is going to be competitive pretty much no matter what. SD5 could be competitive, but there's also a chance that the Republican wins by 40-50.

[ctherainbow]

Off-topic buttttt, if Hood won, since he can veto Congressional maps, is there any chance of a competitive district for Democrats (other than the safe one they have now)? I know the Gov can't veto legislative maps in MS but I'm curious what kind of effect, if any, Hood can have on Congressional redistricting.

Sorry for necroing your post, especially an off-topic one, but I was interested in this question, too, so I did some redistricting, came up with this, and thought you might be interested in the results:



Blue District:  68.4% White, R+15.61 PVI
Green District:  50.1% White, R+3.95 PVI
Purple District:  53% Black, D+3.59 PVI
Red District:  70.5% White, R+21.44 PVI

This map would retain a majority-minority district(and the green district could potentially become one in 2020, depending on demographic growth), and have two competitive and two safe districts, instead of four safe districts.  It's pretty geographically sound, with the exception of hacking up some counties along the green/purple border.

[coloradocowboi]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

I can see them making up something like "VOTER FRAUD IN HINDS COUNTY AND THE DELTA!!1111!!11" as their reason for voting Reeves in.

Well, the politics became so stupidly ideologized and polarized in US, that any pretext will do. In other situations Democrats would do the same too. BOTH parties are "worthy" of each other now...

"Democrats would do the same" they always say without proof.

Read this, stop being an apologist for fascism:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-tell-me-that-both-sides-need-to-do-better/2018/10/29/78eb0d8e-dbb2-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2d546ad76ba

[smoltchanov]

So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

I can see them making up something like "VOTER FRAUD IN HINDS COUNTY AND THE DELTA!!1111!!11" as their reason for voting Reeves in.

Well, the politics became so stupidly ideologized and polarized in US, that any pretext will do. In other situations Democrats would do the same too. BOTH parties are "worthy" of each other now...

"Democrats would do the same" they always say without proof.

Read this, stop being an apologist for fascism:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-tell-me-that-both-sides-need-to-do-better/2018/10/29/78eb0d8e-dbb2-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2d546ad76ba

Read. Stick to my views. A "plaque on both your houses" continues to be my approach to BOTH absolutely intolerant to different views, biased, extremely "narrow tent" and superideologized parties. BOTH will do everything to cling to power and hold it. Damn both!!!!

P.S. Sorry for offtopic. But - really dislike, when someone tries to "teach me" what to do. He/she feels otherwise - fine, and i will not try to "teach" him/her! In return - don't try to "teach" me. That's so simple.

[gespb19]

MS Today with some more rumors on state candidates.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/27/statewide-announced-and-rumored-list/

Apparently, there's a chance that Waller could run an independent, 3rd party campaign (which would guarantee that it goes to the House). Like the C-L, they mentioned Duff as a potential candidate, but I keep hearing that's false. Better chance that Gibert runs out of the business guys mentioned, IMO.

If Foster won the primary, you could have a Foster-Hood-Waller general, which would be somewhat interesting. But it's highly doubtful that Waller gets in the top 2 over Foster, and the House would then pick between Foster and Hood. Obviously, Foster would almost certainly get the nod from the legislature.

They also say McDaniel could run for governor or LG but I'll believe it when I see it.

[smoltchanov]

MS Today with some more rumors on state candidates.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/27/statewide-announced-and-rumored-list/

Apparently, there's a chance that Waller could run an independent, 3rd party campaign (which would guarantee that it goes to the House). Like the C-L, they mentioned Duff as a potential candidate, but I keep hearing that's false. Better chance that Gibert runs out of the business guys mentioned, IMO.

If Foster won the primary, you could have a Foster-Hood-Waller general, which would be somewhat interesting. But it's highly doubtful that Waller gets in the top 2 over Foster, and the House would then pick between Foster and Hood. Obviously, Foster would almost certainly get the nod from the legislature.

They also say McDaniel could run for governor or LG but I'll believe it when I see it.

Well, if McDaniel runs for Governor AND wins primary - i will bet on Hood. Interesting...