2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[ajc0918]

How does this race look? hard to tell with the polarization here

[Oryxslayer]

How does this race look? hard to tell with the polarization here

Generally looking like what we would expect right now - a normal GOP lead via racial polarization.

[Ebsy]

Hood hitting his benchmarks, looking like it might be closer than initially thought.

[Frodo]

Tate Reeves holding on to a seven-point lead over Jim Hood with nearly all precincts reporting:

https://data.clarionledger.com/mississippi-general-election-results-2019/

Republicans meanwhile are sweeping all other statewide offices, including Attorney General.

[Frodo]

Here is the partisan breakdown (from Ballotpedia) for the Mississippi legislature as they stood on the eve of election day:

Senate

Republicans: 31
Democrats: 18
vacancies: 3

House

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 44
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

How does everyone see them changing by next January once the dust settles and all the votes are counted?

[Oryxslayer]

Whats going on in Lee County - Tupelo? Nobody has any returns for it this late into the night. I'm rather curious seeing as it is a urban county in Hoods neck of the woods, but it is also reliably red in most races. Its the only county with serious outstanding votes on the CNN page.

[Adam Griffin]

Results as of now (with >99% reporting):

Reeves 447,335    52.23%
Hood      398,721    46.55%
Others   10,439       1.22%

[Pollster]

Hood put up a very respectable showing, he improved slightly on Espy's margin despite turnout actually being lower than the special election runoff in 2018.

[Del Tachi]

Whats going on in Lee County - Tupelo? Nobody has any returns for it this late into the night. I'm rather curious seeing as it is a urban county in Hoods neck of the woods, but it is also reliably red in most races. Its the only county with serious outstanding votes on the CNN page.

Well, you see, Reeves needed to keep some boxes out late in historically GOP Tupelo in case he ended-up trailing Hood

See:  Baldwin County in 2002 AL-GOV

[n1240]

Whats going on in Lee County - Tupelo? Nobody has any returns for it this late into the night. I'm rather curious seeing as it is a urban county in Hoods neck of the woods, but it is also reliably red in most races. Its the only county with serious outstanding votes on the CNN page.

Bit late to respond, and they've reported their results now, but they had a software error which was preventing them from reporting in a timely manner (can't include the link since I don't have enough posts though)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Whats going on in Lee County - Tupelo? Nobody has any returns for it this late into the night. I'm rather curious seeing as it is a urban county in Hoods neck of the woods, but it is also reliably red in most races. Its the only county with serious outstanding votes on the CNN page.

Bit late to respond, and they've reported their results now, but they had a software error which was preventing them from reporting in a timely manner (can't include the link since I don't have enough posts though)

Steve, just reboot the damn thing!

[Oryxslayer]

MCI map's beautiful MS map is done.

[OneJ]

Some thoughts that I wanted to share about the races from last night here:

1. It irritates me that Lafayette County flipped, but Forrest County didn't. Even Madison County flipped before it.
2. Hood underperforming Espy in DeSoto is a bit disappointing.
3. The national trend of the urban/rural divide is continuing here. I can definitely see suburban counties like Madison and DeSoto trending D in 2020 and for the foreseeable future.
4. Downballot Dems overall did better in the statewide races than in the disastrous year of 2015 (there was no way to go, but up). It seems that they might be improving their floor.
5. Turnout wasn't that high and will likely just fall short of 2018. Usually, governors races here have better turnout than midterm senate races.
6. Hughes underperforming Collins, Cole, and Dupree was unexpected. I thought it makes sense since I saw Riley Collins' ads in last few weeks often but it doesn't explain why Cole or Dupree did better than him. I guess it has to do with Hosemann's strength.

[7,052,770]

This is a map of Hood's performance changed from his double-digit win in 2015 to his 6 point loss in 2019. The numbers are the rank in number of voters in 2019



Hood performed well enough in the large counties and college towns, actually overperforming his 2015 % in a few of them, but the Northeastern areas that had voted him in all those times for AG did not stick with him.

[Annatar]

Here is the partisan breakdown (from Ballotpedia) for the Mississippi legislature as they stood on the eve of election day:

Senate

Republicans: 31
Democrats: 18
vacancies: 3

House

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 44
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

How does everyone see them changing by next January once the dust settles and all the votes are counted?

36/52 Republicans in the Senate and 75/122 in the house

[Frodo]

Here is the partisan breakdown (from Ballotpedia) for the Mississippi legislature as they stood on the eve of election day:

Senate

Republicans: 31
Democrats: 18
vacancies: 3

House

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 44
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

How does everyone see them changing by next January once the dust settles and all the votes are counted?

36/52 Republicans in the Senate and 75/122 in the house

Yup:

GOP control expands in Mississippi Senate, steady in House

I wonder how many more seats the GOP can gain in the House and Senate after the 2020 census and redistricting, or are they already pretty much at their max?  

[smoltchanov]

Here is the partisan breakdown (from Ballotpedia) for the Mississippi legislature as they stood on the eve of election day:

Senate

Republicans: 31
Democrats: 18
vacancies: 3

House

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 44
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

How does everyone see them changing by next January once the dust settles and all the votes are counted?

36/52 Republicans in the Senate and 75/122 in the house

I wonder how many more seats the GOP can gain in the House and Senate after the 2020 census and redistricting, or are they already pretty much at their max?  

Max, obviously. There are only 2 Democratic white state Senators in legislature (and only 1 - from majority-white district), and approximately, 7-8 white Democrats in House (3-4 of them represent majority-Black districts too, IIRC). And Republicans have almost no chances in majority-Black districts

[Skill and Chance]

Here is the partisan breakdown (from Ballotpedia) for the Mississippi legislature as they stood on the eve of election day:

Senate

Republicans: 31
Democrats: 18
vacancies: 3

House

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 44
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

How does everyone see them changing by next January once the dust settles and all the votes are counted?

36/52 Republicans in the Senate and 75/122 in the house

Yup:

GOP control expands in Mississippi Senate, steady in House

I wonder how many more seats the GOP can gain in the House and Senate after the 2020 census and redistricting, or are they already pretty much at their max?  

If current law on VRA districts remains in effect, they are within a seat or 2 of their max.  If SCOTUS narrows the scope of VRA districting requirements (as some consider likely) or reverses its prior rulings requiring them altogether, they could gain many more seats.  Of course, Democrats could also gain many more seats in states where they control the mapping process if VRA districting rules are relaxed.

[Tender Branson]

MS counties are certifying their results now and usually the D candidate gains ground compared with election night.

In Lowndes County, a bigger county, Reeves won by 31 votes on election night - but it was later certified as only a 16 vote win.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2019-general-elections/mississippi-results

https://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2019-General-Election.aspx

[DINGO Joe]

MS counties are certifying their results now and usually the D candidate gains ground compared with election night.

In Lowndes County, a bigger county, Reeves won by 31 votes on election night - but it was later certified as only a 16 vote win.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2019-general-elections/mississippi-results

https://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2019-General-Election.aspx

I've seen like 4 different maps for MS post election and none of them match or seem to have all the latest numbers for all the counties and of course it's MS fault as it's gotta be the most low tech state out there.

Madison Co does have a decent web site and apparently final numbers and Hood won the county by 662 votes vs the 440 election night  margin.

[DINGO Joe]

Also, I knew that John Hicks was the 3rd party candidate in the KY gov race, but I didn't notice until now that the 3rd party guy in MS was Bob Hickingbottom, which is like taking the name Hick and somehow making it even more embarrassing. 

[Tender Branson]

Jackson County, another large district, which voted 2/3 for Reeves, has also released final results:

Compared with election night results, Reeves added 700 votes, Hood about 600.

[Tender Branson]

On the other hand, in Harrison County, another big county, both added just 100 votes each.

[Tender Branson]

On the other hand, in Harrison County, another big county, both added just 100 votes each.

Same in DeSoto County, the 3rd largest in the state.

Hinds and Rankin have not released their certified results yet.

[Tender Branson]

In Lauderdale County (a strong Reeves county), Hood added some 100 votes compared with election night, but Reeves only 60.