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  VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8
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Author Topic: VT-Tulchin Research (Vermont Dem internal) - Scott +8  (Read 620 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: October 01, 2018, 04:40:28 pm »



Phil Scott (R-inc) 50
Christine Hallquist (D) 42

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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 04:41:57 pm »

Scott can lose.
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New York Dude
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 04:43:06 pm »

Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 04:47:26 pm »

Likely R. Scott has a much better chance of winning than a certain other GOP incumbent in a certain other New England state that shall go unnamed.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 04:50:06 pm »

Haven't heard of this pollster. But it's a D internal, so that says a bit about the margin.

Polls in Vermont are always sparse, and more often than not, junk, so I'll probably keep this race as Lean R for a while.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 04:53:36 pm »

Scott is only +3 (47-44) among likely voters.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 04:54:58 pm »

Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%.

Hasn't the legislature voted for the candidate who got the most votes every time for over 100 years, though. Anyway, Likely R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 05:37:58 pm »

So as expected, Scott will likely win by double digits.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 05:38:52 pm »

Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%.

Hasn't the legislature voted for the candidate who got the most votes every time for over 100 years, though. Anyway, Likely R.

Yeah, the legislature has made it pretty clear they have no intention of ever going against the popular vote. Which leads to the obvious question of why they don't just change the law.

Likely R. Scott has a much better chance of winning than a certain other GOP incumbent in a certain other New England state that shall go unnamed.

Don't be a hack, Charlie Baker is obviously going to win.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 06:20:21 pm »

Scott will win, unlike Sununu, but whether he clears the 50% thresehold, is a different story
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 07:20:37 pm »

Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 07:28:48 pm »

Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.

Why, though? Heís at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldnít possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 07:31:04 pm »

Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.

Why, though? Heís at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldnít possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad?

From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 11:33:32 pm »

Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.

Why, though? Heís at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldnít possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad?

From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will.

Scott cratered his approval rating with conservatives by backing gun control laws on the wake of Parkland, but didnít get a bump from Ds. He faced a tough primary challenge and got through it. Iím surprised heís up by this much in a D internal.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 12:30:05 am »

So as expected, Scott will likely win by double digits.

Yeah. Despite being squeezed from both sides he remains reasonably popular.
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The Saint
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 07:24:16 am »

Scott is going to win but this is a pretty bad poll for him.

Why, though? Heís at 50% and up by 8 in a Democratic internal in a D+15 state. Not saying he couldnít possibly lose, but how is it pretty bad?

From what I've gathered, the assumption was for Scott win by a similar level to what Charlie Baker probably will.

It's a Dem internal.

Also, I can't remember anyone saying Scott would perform as well as Baker. A double-digit win, sure, but not matching Baker's performance.
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Figueira
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 07:34:43 am »

Vermont has an odd rule where, if no one exceeds fifty percent of the vote, the winner is chosen by the Legislature. We could see some serious sh**t go down if Scott wins with say 49.99%.

People always bring this up, but the Vermont legislature always elects the popular vote winner. It's a "rule" that only exists on paper.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2018, 12:58:05 pm »

Still Likely R.
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