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  GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2
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Author Topic: GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2  (Read 1223 times)
Ebsy
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« on: October 01, 2018, 03:10:11 pm »

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/landmark-poll-shows-tight-race-for-georgia-gov-divide-over-kavanaugh/i01BKbcxcBqSlV5ENZ2gRP/

Abrams (Dem): 46
Kemp (GOP): 48
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 03:11:58 pm »

I think you have this reversed.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 03:13:24 pm »

I think you have this reversed.

Thanks, fixed.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 03:28:28 pm »

This will most likely go to a runoff.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 03:30:39 pm »

This will most likely go to a runoff.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 03:33:46 pm »

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 03:40:28 pm »

Abrams is going to win.

She is at 58-25 among Independents. Deal won them 59-36.

87 percent of black voters when in reality it will be closer to 93-95 percent.

I'm willing to wager she will get 70 percent of other (non-white/non-black) rather than 59 percent.

Her base also won't show up on likely voter polls.

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.
Deal could only scrape up 53 percent in a GOP wave year and as an extremely popular incumbent Governor. Black turnout also remained very robust with a lackluster candidate who didn't invest much in galvanizing their vote. Kemp is a sitting duck.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 03:56:27 pm »

Abrams is going to win.

She is at 58-25 among Independents. Deal won them 59-36.

87 percent of black voters when in reality it will be closer to 93-95 percent.

I'm willing to wager she will get 70 percent of other (non-white/non-black) rather than 59 percent.

Her base also won't show up on likely voter polls.

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.
Deal could only scrape up 53 percent in a GOP wave year and as an extremely popular incumbent Governor. Black turnout also remained very robust with a lackluster candidate who didn't invest much in galvanizing their vote. Kemp is a sitting duck.


Polling showed Deal below the 50% needed to avoid the runoff for the entirety of the race, and Jason Carter more often than not was well within striking distance. Even if it seemed he had the advantage, let's not pretend he was this unbeatable titan back then, because he certainly was not. In the end, undecideds broke heavily towards him and he won by a larger margin than expected.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 04:04:21 pm »

Lean R.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 04:07:33 pm »

Polling showed Deal below the 50% needed to avoid the runoff for the entirety of the race, and Jason Carter more often than not was well within striking distance. Even if it seemed he had the advantage, let's not pretend he was this unbeatable titan back then, because he certainly was not. In the end, undecideds broke heavily towards him and he won by a larger margin than expected.
This post doesn't negate anything I said. I didn't say he was an unbeatable titan. I said with everything in the environment being ripe for a GOP victory all he got was 53 percent, I don't see how it's far fetched that Abrams can win when she excites the base far more than Carter ever did, there's an extremely polarizing GOP president in office, Abrams is killing Kemp with independents, and she has a sleeping giant of low propensity black and Hispanic voters waiting to be awakened.

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

Lean R.
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henster
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 04:15:00 pm »

Dems really struggle to get past 46% in GA. I think Abrams does just a bit better than Nunn in '14 and Kemp avoids a runoff.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 04:35:38 pm »

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 04:37:30 pm »

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.
I'm a Stacey Abrams hack don't mind me. LOL.
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 04:56:55 pm »

Toss-Up, a run-off does seem like the most likely outcome right now.
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Predictor
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2018, 04:59:30 pm »

Someone should just have Kemp removed from the ballot lol. He's DOA. No chance.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2018, 06:21:26 pm »

Someone should just have Kemp removed from the ballot lol. He's DOA. No chance.

He has a chance, as long as there is a run-off which favors the GOP, herre.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2018, 06:53:47 pm »

Still a chance for Abrams to consolidate support. Just wait it out. Toss-Up.
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2018, 07:40:41 pm »

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.

While 2014 is a useful Benchmark, we shouldn't rely on it too heavily for three reasons.

One. That was a republican tsunami year, whereas 2018 by all accounts will be one for the Democrats. That will affect races even in relatively inelastic States like Georgia.

Two. As our own Kyle Griffin has pointed out, Georgia's demographics shift every year to be more Democrat friendly. It has only been 4 years, admittedly, but those changes alone can change this race by a percentage point or two.

Three. Abrams is trying something completely different to what Carter and Nunn attempted 4 years ago. Specifically, she's putting all her eggs into a voter mobilization turnout basket. Yes, it's not like Carter or Nunn sat on their hands and did not try to turn out black voters and other minorities who tend not to show up for midterms. However, Abrams is doing that double time or even triple time compared to what Carter and Nunn attempted. In fact, she's basing her whole campaign on bringing out those voters, both in tone and message as well as campaign infrastructure, rather than spending money on Mushi glossy ads trying to appeal to the largely imaginary Georgia swing voter. I am by no means guaranteeing it will work, and it has a chance of backfiring badly. However, it's a wholly new Gambit for which Carter and Nunn's campaign aren't the best yardstick.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2018, 12:57:18 am »

Abrams is dominating among <45 year olds and even narrowly winning 46-64 year olds, but she's getting killed among the 65+ year old geezers which gives Kemp the narrow lead overall.

Seems like the fossils are the only thing holding the Dems back in this state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2018, 01:43:06 am »

This will most likely go to a runoff.

I don't know. Are third parties expected to pick up that many votes? I think it will be decided outright with a narrow Kemp victory.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2018, 02:48:30 am »

Abrams is dominating among <45 year olds and even narrowly winning 46-64 year olds, but she's getting killed among the 65+ year old geezers which gives Kemp the narrow lead overall.

Seems like the fossils are the only thing holding the Dems back in this state.

I wonder what Georgian voters over the age of 65 dislike about her? Probably some policy nuance.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2018, 03:16:39 am »

Abrams is dominating among <45 year olds and even narrowly winning 46-64 year olds, but she's getting killed among the 65+ year old geezers which gives Kemp the narrow lead overall.

Seems like the fossils are the only thing holding the Dems back in this state.

I wonder what Georgian voters over the age of 65 dislike about her? Probably some policy nuance.

She gives them economic anxiety.
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Galletito
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2018, 03:26:13 am »

Abrams is dominating among <45 year olds and even narrowly winning 46-64 year olds, but she's getting killed among the 65+ year old geezers which gives Kemp the narrow lead overall.

Seems like the fossils are the only thing holding the Dems back in this state.

I wonder what Georgian voters over the age of 65 dislike about her? Probably some policy nuance.

She gives them economic anxiety.

She focuses on SJW issues and not real issues Sad
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2018, 03:57:23 am »

Abrams is dominating among <45 year olds and even narrowly winning 46-64 year olds, but she's getting killed among the 65+ year old geezers which gives Kemp the narrow lead overall.

Seems like the fossils are the only thing holding the Dems back in this state.

I wonder what Georgian voters over the age of 65 dislike about her? Probably some policy nuance.

She gives them economic anxiety.

She is just another latte-sipping, arugula eating, gay-loving, crypto-Muslim, terrorist sympathizing, left-coast elitist liberal 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2018, 04:15:51 am »

Likely possibilities for this race are either

1. Kemp barely wins outright
2. Kemp gets 49%-ish and race goes to a runoff

Can't see how Abrams wins it outright. Either way looks like Kemp is favored. We saw how 2014 went when it didn't go to a runoff when everybody thought it would. Could happen again this time.
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