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June 17, 2019, 03:40:25 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-GOV(Landmark): Kemp +2  (Read 1192 times)
yeah_93
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Posts: 2,990
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« on: October 01, 2018, 03:33:46 pm »

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.
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yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,990
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 03:56:27 pm »

Abrams is going to win.

She is at 58-25 among Independents. Deal won them 59-36.

87 percent of black voters when in reality it will be closer to 93-95 percent.

I'm willing to wager she will get 70 percent of other (non-white/non-black) rather than 59 percent.

Her base also won't show up on likely voter polls.

This will most likely go to a runoff.

It seemed that way in 2014... only for Deal to win easily.

This year's most likely different, though. I'd bet there's going to be a runoff now.
Deal could only scrape up 53 percent in a GOP wave year and as an extremely popular incumbent Governor. Black turnout also remained very robust with a lackluster candidate who didn't invest much in galvanizing their vote. Kemp is a sitting duck.


Polling showed Deal below the 50% needed to avoid the runoff for the entirety of the race, and Jason Carter more often than not was well within striking distance. Even if it seemed he had the advantage, let's not pretend he was this unbeatable titan back then, because he certainly was not. In the end, undecideds broke heavily towards him and he won by a larger margin than expected.
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yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,990
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 04:35:38 pm »

She's going to win. I don't care what happened in 2014 because it's not 2014. LOL.

I mean, I'm not arguing she can't win. Just saying what happened in 2014.

Now, saying she will win, well, I wouldn't go that far.
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