CA-Gov - Thomas Partners Strategies: Newsom +11

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Newsom may underperform Brown '14 by a good bit. Still obviously Safe D, but I think Travis Allen would've put up a bigger fight than Cox is.

I actually think the opposite.  Allen's style is a little more polarizing in the vein of Trump, while most of the attacks on Cox would be his very conservative (for California standards) ideology.  I don't think Cox will win, but losing in the high single digits or low double digits wouldn't surprise me much at all.  In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.

I think Republicans would have had Senate pickups in the double digits-perhaps as high as 15- in a Hillary midterm.  A Hillary midterm would have been even more devastating for Democrats as this one could be for Republicans (the GOP may have made a run at 275 House seats).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In a Hillary midterm, this might actually be a winnable race for the Republicans against Newsom.

Is there any race that wouldn’t have been winnable for Republicans in a Hillary miderm? Guys, even in midterms a state's partisan lean matters.

I think Republicans would have had Senate pickups in the double digits-perhaps as high as 15- in a Hillary midterm.  A Hillary midterm would have been even more devastating for Democrats as this one could be for Republicans (the GOP may have made a run at 275 House seats).

Too far! Even in 2014, Reps didn't even come close to 275 house seats, and 15 Senate pickups is virtually unprecedented in US history.

Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, Tester, McCaskill, Nelson, and Brown (against Mandel) would have all been DOA.  Baldwin, Menendez, and Casey would all be underdogs.  Stabenow, Heinrich, and Klobuchar would have all been vulnerable (I don't think the whole Me Too movement happens if Hillary wins, so Franken is still a Senator).  Plus, Republicans probably won the special for Kaine's seat in 2017 and probably hold it in 2018.  That's an expected gain of 11-14 seats from 2016.