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  ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
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Author Topic: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10  (Read 3273 times)
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2018, 07:10:40 pm »

Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

According to RCP, Heidi only lead in one poll in June and that seemed like an outlier at the time. Also, what private polling?
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Virginia
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« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2018, 07:15:00 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasn’t leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.
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Xing
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« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2018, 07:17:48 pm »

Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

I wasn't trying to imply that I think ND polls are going to be wrong again, I just think it would be funny if a 10-point lead in a poll proved to be wrong again for the same race. I think Heitkamp is the most vulnerable Democrat, though, and certainly more likely to lose than not at this point (and you know that I've been bearish on her chances for a while Tongue)
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2018, 07:21:44 pm »


......

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

We need more polling in general. Is it me or has the amount of polling astronomically declined since 2014? Its frustrating that due to the lack of polling, one poll can set the narrative for an entire race.
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2018, 07:22:57 pm »

This race is still very much a Lean D race.
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2018, 07:27:41 pm »

Smells fishy
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2018, 07:32:44 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2018, 07:37:15 pm »

Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.


The problem with that argument is that there have not really many polls of this race *period* this year
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2018, 07:46:52 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2018, 07:47:46 pm »

Likely R
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Virginia
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2018, 07:47:53 pm »

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2018, 07:57:54 pm »

Worth noting that ND had the highest Kavanaugh support of any Dem-incumbent Senate state (albeit a month ago).

Also worth mentioning that ND has changed demographically probably more than any other state since 2012.
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« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2018, 08:00:54 pm »

I mean I think Cramer wins but this is a bit much.
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« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2018, 08:09:42 pm »

I mean I think Cramer wins but this is a bit much.
Whoa I agree with bagel
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2018, 08:10:40 pm »

Cramer wins by 5
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Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire
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« Reply #40 on: October 01, 2018, 08:10:56 pm »

[X] doubt
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #41 on: October 01, 2018, 08:13:18 pm »

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.

Overall I agree with you, but remember it's not like the Senate map is neutral this time. It's stacked in deep red states. Even if Dems do have an advantage on the issue, is it going to actually translate into helping them in a state like North Dakota, Tennessee, or West Virginia? I highly doubt it. If Republicans found an issue that they had the upper hand on nationwide, it probably wouldn't help them much to use it if they were trying to win a Senate race in California or Vermont, and could even backfire on them.
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« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2018, 08:19:47 pm »

^^ All of this goes to show that Democrats need to make DC and PR into states ASAP. Their Senate majority hopes resting completely on Republican-leaning states is a potential liability when it comes to the Supreme Court, and Democrats need to be able to fight for a left-leaning majority on the court without constantly hurting their electoral prospects (allegedly :x)

Not to mention making them into states is just the right thing to do, but still.
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Fremont Speaker Roblox
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« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2018, 08:22:54 pm »

Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesnít mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasnít been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

I guess Cramer must be running a very #populist campaign compared to those other candidates!

But yeah, Heitkamp is in bad shape, polling in the low 40's. Another thing is that Cramer has been a statewide elected official since 2012, as their only house rep, resulting in him getting more exposure than say, the Montana state auditor or something.
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Skye
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« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2018, 08:23:13 pm »


I mean, it's not an unreasonable statement to get behind.

I don't really know anything about this pollster, so I wouldn't put too much thought into it. And the margin, I don't buy.

That said, the Dems should be scared about this seat, since it's the only one where there hasn't been any good news for them lately. If Heitkamp wins, it's probably going to be because of a blue wave. And that may not even save her.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
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« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2018, 08:25:57 pm »

This doesn't look right and ND is notoriously hard to poll, but we'll see.
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« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2018, 09:13:19 pm »

This poll did make 538 change this race from Tilt D to Tilt R in their classic model.

However, I still want to see more polling within the next month before I make any definitive judgment as to who is on track to win.
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« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2018, 10:19:30 pm »

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« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2018, 10:22:40 pm »



Just a friendly reminder Smiley
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RoboWop
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2018, 10:29:29 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.
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