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  ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
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Author Topic: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10  (Read 3272 times)
Landslide Andy
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« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2018, 10:46:32 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2018, 11:04:03 pm »

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But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesnít know what theyíre talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2018, 11:09:39 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.

The Government shutdown didnt even hurt the GOP in polling even then and I believe the Dems generic ballot lead started dropping around that time till around July when it stopped dropping . Then in August it started to rise again
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2018, 11:11:16 pm »

ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.

Heitkamp isnít going to do 15-17 points worse than Tester, lol. Most likely this poll is inflating Cramer's lead. Cramer +4/5 and Tester +3/4 sounds more believable.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #54 on: October 01, 2018, 11:29:38 pm »

ND is pretty solidly more to the right than Montana.

Heitkamp isnít going to do 15-17 points worse than Tester, lol. Most likely this poll is inflating Cramer's lead. Cramer +4/5 and Tester +3/4 sounds more believable.

Probably, but MT was 16 points to the left of ND in 2016.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #55 on: October 01, 2018, 11:37:08 pm »

Just what were Feingold and Bayh's numbers again at this point back in 2016?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #56 on: October 01, 2018, 11:41:11 pm »

Just what were Feingold and Bayh's numbers again at this point back in 2016?

Both those states were far more Republican than ND is Democratic
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #57 on: October 02, 2018, 01:03:57 am »

J U N K
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #58 on: October 02, 2018, 01:23:32 am »

Probably an oulier, but Tilt R at least.
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Skunk
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« Reply #59 on: October 02, 2018, 01:46:57 am »

The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isnít as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

Uh...

If you think Berg had trouble winning over female voters, just wait until Cramer gets the nomination. Triage this race.
It's clear that the ND GOP doesn't have a John Thune capable of beating Heitkamp.
It will definitely be interesting to see if Heitkamp actually wins more counties than her Republican opponent this year. She could be the only red state Democrat to do so, although Manchin almost certainly will as well if he wins his race.
The fact that Cramer (whoís probably going to lose the female vote by 20+ points) entering actually helps the Republicans in this race tells you all you need to know about its competitiveness. There is literally no evidence or sign that this race is Tilt R, unless youíre just looking at the 2016 results and assuming that they are a good indicator of whatís going to happen in ND this year, which would be a ridiculous thing to do.
Cramer entering probably moves it from Likely/Safe D to Lean/Likely D, but Heitkamp still has a significant advantage in this race. Cramer is probably the Republican candidate most likely to implode Akin-style IMO.
10%-20%. Iím not buying that Heitkamp is as vulnerable as people are making her out to be, and my boldô prediction is that sheíll stun the pundits and Atlas and do better than Nelson, Manchin and even Tester.
The ND GOP bench simply isnít as strong as you would expect, and itís showing in this race. It also doesnít help that the party isnít really used to dealing with competitive races, given that most elections in ND arenít really all that competitive. I donít think theyíre well-prepared for a campaign against an incumbent as ridiculously strong as Heitkamp.

There's plenty more but I'm sure you get the point.
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« Reply #60 on: October 02, 2018, 08:03:10 am »

Heidi is in trouble
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #61 on: October 02, 2018, 08:22:55 am »

It could be that this poll was skewed to scare her into voting to confirm Kavanaugh. However, if sheís going to lose anyway she might as well go down in a blaze of glory
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« Reply #62 on: October 02, 2018, 08:31:18 am »

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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #63 on: October 02, 2018, 08:38:36 am »

Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #64 on: October 02, 2018, 08:40:31 am »

Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

.....are you serious? The poll doesnt even have the dates it was conducted?!

Throw this one in the trash!
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cinyc
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« Reply #65 on: October 02, 2018, 08:48:14 am »

Hot Take: This is actually a Heitkamp internal she released so she'd have another newspaper to hold when she wins on election night.

No. The poll is not an internal. It was done by Strategic Research Associates for the NBC TV Stations in Western North Dakota.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #66 on: October 02, 2018, 09:01:30 am »

Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

This happens sometimes for TV station-commissioned polls.
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cinyc
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« Reply #67 on: October 02, 2018, 09:10:59 am »

Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!

This happens sometimes for TV station-commissioned polls.

Often times because they drip out the results for different races over days. There are other ND races this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see House and Governor results over the next few days, followed by more info on the poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #68 on: October 02, 2018, 09:41:12 am »

Here's the poll memo:

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_ND_September_Survey.pdf

It says that 650 likely voters were polled between September 17-27, 2018.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #69 on: October 02, 2018, 12:50:12 pm »

Interesting ...

Strategic Research Associates from Austin, TX seems to be a fairly new pollster.

An untested one. Which doesn't mean they are bad.

They also show Manchin +8 in WV in their new poll.

Heidi seems to be in some trouble, but I wouldn't count her out yet (see 2012).
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KingSweden
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« Reply #70 on: October 02, 2018, 02:20:50 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.

The Government shutdown didnt even hurt the GOP in polling even then and I believe the Dems generic ballot lead started dropping around that time till around July when it stopped dropping . Then in August it started to rise again

I donít think the shutdown is correlated at all with the spring GCB decline
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
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« Reply #71 on: October 02, 2018, 03:44:43 pm »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
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« Reply #72 on: October 02, 2018, 03:48:49 pm »

All the crosstabs seem to be off, honestly.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #73 on: October 02, 2018, 03:53:53 pm »

Itís amazing how much we are going nuts over this poll that doesnít have a memo, any crosstabs, or even dates! All we know is that this poll was conducted in September, but that could be up to four weeks old!
Atlas loves to panic over any Republican-friendly poll. Remember, Heitkamp was triaged in 2012 and was behind by 10 in polls.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #74 on: October 02, 2018, 03:55:50 pm »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?
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