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  ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10
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Author Topic: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10  (Read 3274 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #75 on: October 02, 2018, 03:55:55 pm »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

There are black voters in ND?
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #76 on: October 02, 2018, 03:56:48 pm »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?
It's still a bad sign for the polls methodology.
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cinyc
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« Reply #77 on: October 02, 2018, 03:58:25 pm »

All the crosstabs seem to be off, honestly.

Crosstabs are always off, especially when the target group is <2% of the population, like here.

There aren't many black or Hispanic voters in North Dakota. It's overall population is 90% White as of the 2010 Census. The largest minority group is Native Americans at 5.4%. Hispanics are 2%. Blacks 1.2%. Asians 1%.
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cinyc
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« Reply #78 on: October 02, 2018, 04:06:07 pm »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

African-Americans are 1.2% of ND's population. Does it matter if it's a wonky subsample?
It's still a bad sign for the polls methodology.

They polled 650 voters. If African-Americans make up 1.2% of the population and quotas were met (doubtful), that means you'd have a sample size of about 8. Care to guess what the MoE for a sample size of 8 is? +/-34%. In other words, meaningless.
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Galletito
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« Reply #79 on: October 02, 2018, 08:17:57 pm »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #80 on: October 03, 2018, 02:56:51 am »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

ND is like 90% white and 5% Native American. Those numbers are negligible.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #81 on: October 03, 2018, 02:59:41 am »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.
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Galletito
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« Reply #82 on: October 03, 2018, 09:05:37 pm »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.

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libertpaulian
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« Reply #83 on: October 03, 2018, 09:07:37 pm »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.


If the Dems have the upper hand on issues like healthcare, the environment (the red tide and algae in Florida is an example), and wage stagnation, then maybe the party base can take one hit for the team in order to sell the larger issues I mentioned to the public.
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Galletito
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« Reply #84 on: October 03, 2018, 09:28:23 pm »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.

And what happens if Dems did just shrug it off and allow a handful of senators to vote to confirm him and (not """"snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"""" like you seem to be so convinced of) Heitkamp is still down 12? Then we basically caved and made people think we're a party okay with rapey judges. Still sounds like zero benefit.


If the Dems have the upper hand on issues like healthcare, the environment (the red tide and algae in Florida is an example), and wage stagnation, then maybe the party base can take one hit for the team in order to sell the larger issues I mentioned to the public.


We won't have the upper-hand with an conservative supreme court. What you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense either. There seems to be a bridge between taking one for the team and selling the larger issues to the public that isn't there.

Also, if Kavanaugh is confirmed and RBG dies, that means we'll have a pretty terrible right-wing supreme court that can end all hopes of having the upper hand with healthcare, the environment, wage stagnation, and probably Roe v. Wade too. Wouldn't surprise me if they made changes to marriage equality too.
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