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  ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10  (Read 3255 times)
Landslide Andy
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« on: October 01, 2018, 06:45:37 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 06:58:16 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 07:08:59 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

Democrats are not overplaying their hands with Kananaugh, and the situation is going to result in massive pain for Republicans across the nation, in both R leaning areas, and in D leaning areas, and Icespear concern trolling on the topic is irrelevant to reality.

I realize you're Solid, but surely even you can't be delusional enough to think North Dakota opposes Kavanaugh, right? Not everyone is a left wing Chelsea Manning supporter living in Maryland you know. This is rock solid Trump country we're talking about here.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 07:32:44 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasnít leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 08:13:18 pm »

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

It's just a matter of perspective I guess. I'm not convinced this particular confirmation fight is going to be the big loser for Senate Democrats that is semi-common knowledge right now. I've always been really skeptical of the argument that any fight over the courts inherently favors conservatives (polling right now seems to suggest Democrats care more than Republicans), mostly because conservative voters who even know what the Supreme Court is and/or can even name more than one justice are already staunch Republicans that vote like clockwork. But this time is different, mostly because Kavanaugh is not very popular and accusations of sexual assault do give Democrats some cover among voters the few voters that may care about this and aren't dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. Perhaps it wouldn't have mattered as much in another time, but this particular era is marked by a backlash to sexual abuse and does appear to be having noticeable effects on elections and the candidates that run. Of course, I get that some people think Republicans just don't care about rape or sexual assault because of the magical R, and to a large extent that is probably true, but it doesn't mean they all do. Even a small ~15% sliver is a huge deal in most states.

Gardner can't run a base-only strategy in 2020, so I think once Democrats remind the right people of his vote in this case, it'll peel enough some voters away. It's certainly a potential liability. Voters aren't necessarily indifferent to this stuff. It's just when your goal is convince partisan voters to change their minds that it becomes a problem.

Overall I agree with you, but remember it's not like the Senate map is neutral this time. It's stacked in deep red states. Even if Dems do have an advantage on the issue, is it going to actually translate into helping them in a state like North Dakota, Tennessee, or West Virginia? I highly doubt it. If Republicans found an issue that they had the upper hand on nationwide, it probably wouldn't help them much to use it if they were trying to win a Senate race in California or Vermont, and could even backfire on them.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 10:46:32 pm »


As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

What we've got to keep in mind is that the Kavanaugh hearings are entirely about the large contingent Senators running for 2020, none of whom give half a damn if Heidi Heitkamp (or Manchin or Donnelly) is re-elected. They would drown her in the Potomac if they thought it would win them Iowa.

That's very true...sigh. Just like the stupid government shutdown stunt from a while back. Luckily that was so long ago everyone forgot and no longer cares about it. But now we're getting close to the point in the cycle where voters actually start remembering recent events while voting, so it's getting dicey.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 02:56:51 am »

The minority numbers are clearly skewed. There is no way that Black voters are tied, or that Hispanic or "Other" voters are favorable to Cramer.

ND is like 90% white and 5% Native American. Those numbers are negligible.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 02:59:41 am »

If opposing Kavanaugh means that Heitkamp loses, then welp... I'd rather have that then the Dems being okay with Kavanaugh and allowing him to skate by, considering he's probably a drunken rapist.

Problem being he would be confirmed anyway, so you're basically throwing one or more Senators in the trash can for zero benefit.
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