ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)
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  ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)
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Author Topic: ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)  (Read 1865 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 01, 2018, 09:07:22 PM »

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 09:09:48 PM »

Both this and Cramer leading by 10 are bs.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 09:10:26 PM »

ND polls are officially worthless.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 09:10:50 PM »

This would make me feel better, but this is North Dakota so I don't trust anything.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 09:10:58 PM »

Well yeah, of course. If Heitkamp wasn't doing well in Fargo and Grand Forks she'd be on her way to a 20+ point Blanching. But if the rest of the state is swinging R, it's not like it would be unlikely for Cramer to have a decent sized lead.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 09:13:31 PM »

How many more of these polls of specific regions/demographics are we going to get?
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Webnicz
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 09:14:45 PM »

stop this
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 09:15:19 PM »

Both this and Cramer leading by 10 are bs.

DFM got ND-SEN right in 2012, but go off.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 09:15:53 PM »

My mind model is so confused now
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 09:27:58 PM »

ND has had a lot of deplorables flooding in due to the fracking boom in west ND. It may turn into Wyoming.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 09:32:17 PM »

How many more of these polls of specific regions/demographics are we going to get?

Yeah, these are useless. That said, Heitkamp doing well in Frago and Grand Forks is hardly surprising.
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RI
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 10:11:16 PM »

This is literally just the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Grand Forks, not even rural Cass or GF Counties.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 10:12:09 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 10:17:12 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

The conventional wisdom is that Western ND is going to swing R (though how strongly is an open question) with Eastern ND either staying the same (which would lead to a Cramer win) or swing D (the extent of which could determine whether Heitkamp has a chance or not.) If these areas are swinging slightly D from 2012, my guess would be that's not enough for Heitkamp to hold on. But this person could very well be taking issue with the fact that Cramer +10 is too high and thinking the Cramer +4/5 polls were more reasonable.
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2018, 10:17:25 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2018, 10:20:17 PM »

This is literally just the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Grand Forks, not even rural Cass or GF Counties.

Really? If that’s the case (I’m not sure?), it’s not that bad for Rs.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2018, 10:21:24 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?
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RI
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2018, 10:22:14 PM »

This is literally just the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Grand Forks, not even rural Cass or GF Counties.

Really? If that’s the case (I’m not sure?), it’s not that bad for Rs.

Here: https://twitter.com/DFMresearch/status/1046951189886193664
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2018, 10:28:07 PM »

He also posted his other numbers:


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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2018, 10:30:26 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2018, 10:37:12 PM »

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

Thanks!

Statistically speaking, losing a bunch of incumbents this cycle was be highly unusual for the out party in a midterm wave, but holding every single seat and picking up seats too would also be somewhat even if less unusual. Heitkamp could very well be one of if not the only incumbent that Democrats lose. Still though, it would be nice if we could get some more polls (of the entire state).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2018, 10:48:48 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

Yeah, like I said above, most likely this person does think Cramer is leading but that +10 is too high. I doubt they would've gone on a Tweeting spree if it was another Cramer +4 poll.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2018, 11:04:15 PM »

What does Heidi need to get in these areas to win?

Well, if she barely won with 14% in 2012, I'd say 15% this time, due to growth in the Western part of the state. Fargo has grown, too, so an additonial one point is probably appropriate.

An interactive precinct map of the 2012 ND Senate race is available on my website here:
https://www.thecinyc.com/2012-nd-senate-ge

(or here, if you're on a mobile device: https://www.thecinyc.com/nd-sen-ge-2012)

Oh, cool. Thanks for the link. I presume that's your site? Looks data rich!

So to the degree that which we can extrapolate these numbers, this is probably good news for her?

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.



Huh...
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2018, 11:40:39 PM »

Yes, it's my site.

Hard to say. If all else remains the same in the state, yes, it's good news for Heitkamp. But if Western North Dakota, which has rapidly grown since 2012, tilts even more R than in 2012, even D+17 might not be enough.

The only thing I can definitively say is that assuming the pollster is correct that the areas polled were D+14 last time, it's not consistent with a double-digit Heitkamp loss.

The fact that the (presumably D internal) pollster keeps on releasing favorable regional crosstabs instead of the topline should tell us that Heitkamp is behind statewide by something.

Thanks!

Statistically speaking, losing a bunch of incumbents this cycle was be highly unusual for the out party in a midterm wave, but holding every single seat and picking up seats too would also be somewhat even if less unusual. Heitkamp could very well be one of if not the only incumbent that Democrats lose. Still though, it would be nice if we could get some more polls (of the entire state).

How?  The GOP gained nothing in 2006, and Dems gained nothing in 2010 and 2014?  If anything these days, the out-party losing a seat to the in-party is the unusual thing.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2018, 12:01:24 AM »

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