ND DFM Research: Heitkamp +18 in East Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)

[Virginiá]

How?  The GOP gained nothing in 2006, and Dems gained nothing in 2010 and 2014?  If anything these days, the out-party losing a seat to the in-party is the unusual thing.

I'd have to look at the exact maps at the time, but 2006 wasn't as top-heavy for Democrats. Now they hold a lot of seats and a number of which are in heavily Republican states. Just the sheer number of Democratic seats up and where they are matters more than those particular elections. There is more exposure and more risk. The "out" party isn't guaranteed to win every Senate race in this kind of situation, they just have a really big advantage, and that advantage is reduced depending on the partisan lean of a state.

The average used by 538 when they wrote an article about this was using election cycles that go back a lot further, so the new average these days is probably closer to 100% retention rate than the previous 95% or so. But again, this is arguably one of if not thee worst map either party has faced since the 17th amendment was ratified, so it's not quite the same. Holding every seat and making new gains is tough but obviously not impossible.

I still think Democrats are more likely to do that than not, but I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit nervous about North Dakota. The lack of data makes it really hard to know what is going on.

[TML]

How?  The GOP gained nothing in 2006, and Dems gained nothing in 2010 and 2014?  If anything these days, the out-party losing a seat to the in-party is the unusual thing.

I'd have to look at the exact maps at the time, but 2006 wasn't as top-heavy for Democrats. Now they hold a lot of seats and a number of which are in heavily Republican states. Just the sheer number of Democratic seats up and where they are matters more than those particular elections. There is more exposure and more risk. The "out" party isn't guaranteed to win every Senate race in this kind of situation, they just have a really big advantage, and that advantage is reduced depending on the partisan lean of a state.

The average used by 538 when they wrote an article about this was using election cycles that go back a lot further, so the new average these days is probably closer to 100% retention rate than the previous 95% or so. But again, this is arguably one of if not thee worst map either party has faced since the 17th amendment was ratified, so it's not quite the same. Holding every seat and making new gains is tough but obviously not impossible.

I still think Democrats are more likely to do that than not, but I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit nervous about North Dakota. The lack of data makes it really hard to know what is going on.

Remember that 538's fundamentals in ND would give Democrats the advantage, and it has pointed out that in the past 30 years, most Senate races have seen polls shift toward fundamentals during the final months before Election Day. 538 also states that since ND doesn't have a lot of high-quality polling, the fundamentals may have more influence over the final result than places with plenty of high-quality polling.

I'll continue to monitor the polls over the next month, but let me also remind everyone that back in 2012, this race was judged to be Tilt or Lean Republican by several reputable election prediction outlets during the final week before Election Day, but the actual result went the other way.

[Brittain33]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

[windjammer]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

[Brittain33]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

[cinyc]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.

Sounds like they only did a poll of the East Cities in the 1st place. There is no "topline" or other crosstabs, because the poll was never meant to be anything more than a poll of the East Cities.

also:



This is the North Dakota 2012 to 2016 swing map. The idea that the Western Part of the state has swung heavily Republican relative to the Eastern Part of the state is false. While all Counties swung Republican here, it is clear that the colors are substantially darker in the East than they are in the West.

[cinyc]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.

As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.

Sounds like they only did a poll of the East Cities in the 1st place. There is no "topline" or other crosstabs, because the poll was never meant to be anything more than a poll of the East Cities.

also:



This is the North Dakota 2012 to 2016 swing map. The idea that the Western Part of the state has swung heavily Republican relative to the Eastern Part of the state is false. While all Counties swung Republican here, it is clear that the colors are substantially darker in the East than they are in the West.

Nobody who has released crosstabs for Eastern rural and Eastern Cities is only polling half the state.

The two most populous counties in the east, Cass (Fargo) and Grand Forks (Grand Forks) are lighter shades of blue, while Ward (Minot) and Williams (Williston) are darker blue, and Burleigh (Bismarck) is just as blue as Grand Forks. Very few people live in the rest of the eastern counties.

The other problem is that Western North Dakota is growing a little faster than eastern.  Williston and Bismarck have each added about 11,000 residents since 2010. Minot has added 7000. Dickinson has added 4,000. Watford City has added 4,000. Mandan added 3,000.

The only places significantly growing in the eastern part of the state are Fargo (+17,000), West Fargo (+10,000) and Grand Forks (+4,000). Jamestown slightly lost population, as has much of the eastern rural area.

The 2010-17 population change map is here:
https://cinyc.carto.com/viz/a58f03b8-45fa-4f53-8e83-51da6494330b/public_map

So, not only is Western North Dakota trending more R than Eastern, but there are probably more new voters there. That means Heitkamp will have to do better than +14 in the eastern cities this time. How much better? Nobody knows.

[KingSweden]

My mind model is so confused now

[MT Treasurer]

This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.

Well,
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.

Did it, though?

This is literally just the cities of Fargo, West Fargo, and Grand Forks, not even rural Cass or GF Counties.

I’m aware that not that many people live in the more rural parts of those counties, but still something to consider.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If it's just the inner cities (without surrounding suburbs or rural areas), I'm surprised it's only +18, or +14 in 2012. Urban areas now are usually more Democratic than that.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Press release:

https://demnpl.com/new-eastern-polling-data-demonstrates-heitkamps-strength-in-tight-north-dakota-senate/

Polling memo:

https://demnpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ND-East-Regional-Topline-1.pdf