This poll + the SDA poll puts me at Lean R for ND, which I'd resisted for a while. I want to believe in Heidi but I'm worried that this is a setback in our limited chances to retake the Senate.
This region voted for Heitkamp by 14 points in 2012 and in this poll she's leading by 18.
True, but we have reason to believe the western part of the state is swinging the other way. It's not just petroleum (even though I think that has wound down some), but also Trump being more appealing than Romney to those people. I don't think Heitkamp's out but I'm worried about her.
As I said above, that the D-internal pollster isn't releasing crosstabs for Western ND or the toplines should tell you that Heitkamp is behind by something in the full sample. Probably not an unbelievable 10, but something.
Sounds like they only did a poll of the East Cities in the 1st place. There is no "topline" or other crosstabs, because the poll was never meant to be anything more than a poll of the East Cities.
also:
This is the North Dakota 2012 to 2016 swing map. The idea that the Western Part of the state has swung heavily Republican relative to the Eastern Part of the state is false. While all Counties swung Republican here, it is clear that the colors are substantially darker in the East than they are in the West.
